Tuesday Jan.14, 2020

2020 Resolution: Become a water company

_New water company corporate mascot_
_New water company corporate mascot_

Hey Snackers,

This playboy tortoise with an unstoppable libido may have single-handedly saved his species from extinction. Now Diego is heading home.

Markets edged up to start the the week before Wednesday's signing of the US/China "Phase 1" trade deal. Here's what's believed to be in it (picture soybeans and grains).

Hydrate

Cott acquires Primo Water to become Big H2O

Water is the essence of wetness... for Cott Corp. Canada's drinks/filtration company treated itself to acquire Primo Water for $775M. Cott's so enamored with water that it sold off its soft-drink biz and quit coffee/tea. Now it's even adopting Primo's entire brand — Cott is marrying Primo, taking its name, and paying it $775M.

Primo follows the ol' razor/razor blade biz model... You're lured in with cheap razors, but then have to refill with pricier blades (#hygiene). With water, Primo can barely make any money (but hook you) with its water dispensers, then make bank when you come back to exchange/refill your huge water jugs:

  • Low Margin: The claaaassic boulder-sized hot/cool water dispensers dominating your office kitchen — they're barely profitable for Primo (8% profit margin).
  • Higher Margin: Pre-filled plastic water jugs delivered to offices and homes nationwide — pretty profitable (30% margin).
  • Highest Margin: FYOB (fill your own bottles) using Primo's filling machines at over 23K locations like Safeway, Walmart, and Costco — the most profitable (31% margin).

Do less, more... Companies like Coca-Cola try to do more, more. Coca-Cola is a soda company, but it owns hundreds of non-soda brands from Dasani to Vitaminwater. Cott's doing the opposite: selling off its non-agua brands to focus solely on water (btw — it owns green glass bottle legend Mountain Valley).

  • Upside: Cott can do more with one product — Hydrating health is trendy along with sustainable bottles. Plus, everyone literally needs it to survive.
  • Downside: But Cott could get cott if the trends disappear — Water surpassed soda as America's favorite bottled beverage in 2017, but it could just be a fad.
Cure

23andMe is using your saliva to cure diseases (and make money)

Selling search data is so 2019... That's why 23andMe is capitalizing on your DNA instead. The genetic testing unicorn first helped you find your long-lost cousin from Angola. Now it's sold the rights to a psoriasis drug it developed using its very own genetic database.

  • Old News: 23andMe sold access to its users' DNA to GlaxoSmithKlein in 2018 — GSK uses it to research and develop their own medicines.
  • New News: For the first time, 23andMe developed and licensed a drug itself, thanks to research made possible by its giant set of saliva samples — the buyer is Spanish pharma company, Almirall.
  • Key News: 10M customers have sent 23andMe their saliva in a tube to get their DNA analyzed — and 80% of them opted-in to participate in research (without gaining any financial benefit).

You are the product... literally. 23andMe makes money selling DNA kits ($99-$199), selling its DNA data to a pharma company, and now also by developing (and selling) its own drugs. All these money moves involve your DNA, which you're paying them to give them.

23andFree?... What if 23andMe made its core product (DNA ancestry kits) free instead? That would probably add millions of new customers, leading to more genetic info... which could lead to more drugs developed from all that extra research. That would make 23andMe look more like Facebook — it's free, but Facebook (and Insta) use your data to deliver you targeted ads. That's how FB makes $$$.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Returned: Away co-founder Steph Korey (not to be confused with Steph Curry) is back as co-CEO after stepping down in response to viral articles about the startup's work culture
  • Double Dogg: Dunkin' releases a Snoop Dogg-inspo'd plant-based breakfast sandwich, the "Beyond D-O-Double G" (it's a Beyond Meat patty, egg, and cheese inside... a glazed donut)
  • Precious: Rhodium (the precious metal used to cut down on emissions in car exhaust systems) is trading at its highest price since 2008
  • Spend: Visa drops $5.3B on fintech unicorn Plaid — the behind-the-scenes software that helps your Venmo account speak to your bank account
  • Refresh: TGI Fridays is refreshing its bar architecture (bar-chitecture?) before it goes public (again) this year

Tuesday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Beyond Meat

ID: 1057261

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Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia
Job switchers and stayers

The FTC is banning non-compete clauses

Why that might make job switching even more lucrative

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/23/24

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.