Monday Nov.16, 2020

🥙 DoorDash delivers an IPO filing

_When you "Accio" the order to the wrong address_
_When you "Accio" the order to the wrong address_

Hey Snackers,

Forget primitive AirPods (we say, while trapped in a tangle of headphone wires)— the future of minimalist audio could be NoPods. This “sound beaming" device puts music in your head...without headphones.

The S&P 500 stock index hit a fresh high Friday thanks to vaccine optimism. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell as pandemic-winning tech stocks dropped.

On the pod: Disney has been unprofitable in 2020, but investors are eyeing the magical 74M Disney+ subscribers that it racked up in barely a year.

Nom

DoorDash drops juicy details pre-IPO and reveals its biggest ambition

Drooling all over the S-1... DoorDash released its IPO paperwork on Friday, and didn't hold back with the high-res food pics (so many poke bowls). Companies that are going public have to file a prospectus with the SEC so investors can get informed. Here's what DoorDash delivered:

  • #1 food deliverer in the US: DoorDash has an enviable 50% share of the market. Uber Eats has 26%, Grubhub has 16%, and Postmates (which Uber's buying) has 7%.
  • Sales more than tripled to $1.9B from January to September compared to the same period in 2019. 18M customers, 1M Dashers, and 390K merchants now use DoorDash's platform.
  • It's still not profitable. Buuuut: DoorDash significantly cut its net loss from $533M in the 2019 period to $149M in 2020.

Pad thai, Netflix, repeat... DoorDash's growth was driven by the pandemic/lockdowns, which also boosted Grubhub and Uber — their stocks are up over 50% this year. But it warned investors growth may not continue at the same appetizing pace. To continue growing, DoorDash needs to expand beyond the saturated, hyper-competitive food delivery market.

DoorDash is going full "Delivery Everything"... It bragged that if it can deliver unmelted ice cream, it can deliver anything — and that's exactly what it's trying to do. In addition to restaurant and grocery delivery, DoorDash partnered with CVS for pharmacy delivery and Macy's for clothing delivery. Mom-and-pop shops could be next. An all-in-one platform could keep "promiscuous" customers loyal and reduce the need for endless promos. That's why DoorDash mentioned "food" 169 times in its S-1 and "logistics" 200 times (#priorities).

Highs

Who's up...

Big vax energy... BioNTech stock soared 15% for the week after the German biotech announced the COVID-19 vaccine it developed with Pfizer was more than 90% effective in final-stage trials. Dr. Fauci said a vaccine could be approved at 50% to 60% effectiveness, so 90% is huge — but results are preliminary. BioNTech also got a boost from its earnings: quarterly sales from customer contracts more than doubled from last year.

Slap a sticker on... for "cool factor." VF Corp is the uninspiringly-named company behind Vans, North Face, and Timberland — now VF is snatching up Supreme for $2.1B. The iconic streetwear brand is best known for its red logo (it's everywhere). VF shares soared last week, making the biggest 1-day jump in over 30 years. Investors hope Supreme's digital savvy will rub off on VF — but some worry Supreme could lose its hype factor as a part of VF.

Lows

...and who's down

Muted and booted... Zoom shares dropped 19% last week on the Pfizer vaccine breakthrough. Good news for "Reopening Stocks" like airlines could mean bad news for pandemic winners like Peloton, whose stock plunged 20%. An effective vax would help bring back face-to-face, decreasing our (desperate) reliance on the Zoom life. Also potentially concerning for Zoom: its competitor Hopin grew from 5K users to 3.5M users this year, and just raised $125M.

Not McLovin' it.. Beyond Meat stock plunged 20% for the week as investors chewed on two protein-packed patties of puzzling news. First: Beyond served up a surprising quarterly loss and disappointingly low sales. Second: McDonald's unveiled its own plant-based burger — "the McPlant" (niiiice). Beyond said it co-created the McPlant patty, but McDonald's made zero mention of that in its announcement. Awk.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Work: 5 strategies for reinventing your career in uncertain times. Be brutal about what you need to leave behind.
  • Sweat: The difference between jogging and running — don't ask your marathon friend if they want to go for a jog.
  • Act: 10 common things that make people immediately less likeable (humble brag < full-on brag).
  • Focus: To avoid being constantly distracted, we have to face our fear of psychological discomfort (deep).
  • Enjoy: The Japanese 80% rule that could help you live a longer life (everything in moderation... including moderation?).
  • Cook: 9 easy Thanksgiving side dishes from Michelin-starred chefs, because we need all the help we can get.

🍪 Thanks for Snacking with us! Want to start getting Snacks daily? Sign up here for our daily market newsletter.

This Week

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Uber, Google, and Disney

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Do you want to run the State Department of McDonald’s?

A couple of days ago, a tweet making fun at McDonald’s hiring a “Manager for Diplomatic Relations” went viral.

At first glance, the idea that McDonald’s, a burger franchise known for its double quarter pounders and perfectly salted fries, is expanding its diplomatic influence with policy makers in Foggy Bottom and the world at large sounds comical. But it’s actually crucial.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

Nuke stocks up on AI excitement

For most of humanity, the thought of “nuclear-powered AI” sends a shiver down the spine. But the stock market is all for it! Just check out the list of top performing S&P 500 stocks this year. Just behind established AI plays — Super Micro Computer and Nvidia, you’ll find Constellation Energy, the largest operator of nuclear plants in the U.S. NRG Energy, which also operates nuclear plants, isn’t far behind. Bloomberg reports that CEO of power distributor Exelon — which spun off Constellation in 2022 — says in the Chicago area alone, AI could drive a 900% jump in demand for energy from data centers.

Tech

China makes Apple remove WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram from app store

In its latest move to restrict foreign tech, Beijing has ordered Apple to remove a number of popular messaging apps from its app store there, including WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram.

These apps had only been available through VPNs but were popular nonetheless, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Business

Tesla's recall reveals just how bad Cybertruck delivery numbers have been

Thanks to a recall of Tesla’s Cybertrucks, we now know how many of them have actually been delivered: 3,878 since the EV company began releasing them to customers in November.

In its third and fourth quarter earnings report, Tesla said that its current Cybertruck production capacity was greater than 125,000 a year. Musk had previously said he expected to produce 250,000 Cybertrucks a year by 2025.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

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Markets

Cocoa hits $11,000

Cocoa prices are breaking records on an almost daily basis — with cocoa futures closing at (another) all-time high of $11,020 per metric ton yesterday.

That’s up 158% since the start of the year, and over 4x on the typical prices seen in 2022 — as crop production continues to fall short of demand.

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices
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World out of balance: It costs the US 3¢ to make 1 penny

The cost of producing a US penny rose 13% in fiscal 2023 to 3.07 cents. Yes, it means that Uncle Sam loses more than 2 cents for every cent it produces. (And no, you can’t make it up on volume.)

For the record, that’s the 18th straight year the penny’s face value has been below production costs, fueling calls for abolishing the lowest value denomination coin. Canada started to phase out the penny in 2013, joining Australia, Brazil, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, and Israel, according to Smithsonian Magazine.

3.07¢
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Netflix is going to stop sharing subscriber numbers

After posting subscriber numbers that beat expectations today, Netflix says it’s no longer going to share those numbers starting in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a big deal since subscriber numbers have long been one of the main metrics that investors have looked at.

“In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential,” its shareholders letter read. “But now we’re generating very substantial profit and free cash flow.” The company said that it will focus on revenue and operating margin as its main financial metrics, while it will look at time spent on the platform to gauge customer satisfaction.

Another way to read this? They’ve hit market saturation and just aren’t going to be growing that much anymore, and they thought they’d end on a good note. Going forward they’re focusing on how to get more money out of the customers they do have.

They’re doing so by cracking down on password sharing and charging for extra members. They’re also pushing people to ad tiers, which are more profitable than non-ad tiers.

“Scaling ads to become a more meaningful contributor to our business in ‘25 and beyond,” Netflix said.

Netflix’s ads membership grew another 65% in Q1 over the previous one, after rising 70% the quarter before, and 40% of signups in ad markets continue to be for those ad plans.