Wednesday Sep.21, 2022

📚 Spotify’s audiobook bet

Spotify’s new chapter (Jakub Porzycki/Getty Images)
Spotify’s new chapter (Jakub Porzycki/Getty Images)

Hey Snackers,

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen keeps being gifted rare stamps from foreign diplomats, who are convinced she’s an avid collector. Spoiler: she isn’t. Her brother says, “Stamps really don’t mean anything to Janet at all.” It’s the thought that counts?

Stocks fell yesterday as investors braced for another “jumbo” rate hike. The Fed’s expected to raise rates by 75 basis points at its meeting today.

Playbook

Spotify launches an audiobook business, taking on Amazon and Apple in its quest for profitable growth

“Spooky vibes” playlist... feat. Stephen King. Yesterday Spotify launched an audiobook service to US users. The catalog has 300K+ titles from independent authors and major publishers like Penguin Random House. But your monthly subscription isn’t enough to download that Taylor Jenkins Reid best-seller:

  • Pay per download: You pay for each audiobook à la carte (prices vary). Malcolm Gladwell's "Talking to Strangers" = $21.90 + tax.
  • Web-only: Inconveniently, you can't download books through the app (only on the web). Spotify has beef with Apple's in-app commissions and is avoiding the 30% "App tax."
  • Made for you: Eventually Spotify wants to curate audiobooks the same way its algorithms recommend tunes based on your listening habits.

"Dune" on the I-90... Audiobooks are experiencing a growth chapter: audiobook revenues hit $1.7B last year — up 25% from 2020. Spotify believes the audiobook market has massive growth potential that could help drive profits. In July, it bought audiobook distributor Findaway for $119M. But there’s competition in this lucrative market…

  • Top charts: Amazon’s Audible is by far the largest audiobook retailer (about half of US sales in April). Apple’s and Google’s pay-per-book platforms are also popular.
  • Top concerns: Spotify has significantly grown subscribers and content (think: massive pod investments) but has never made an annual profit. The stock’s down 60% this year (lower than its IPO price).

A big player can change the playbook… As the curated-playlist OG, Spotify revolutionized how we listen to music. By taking a novel approach to audiobooks, it could transform that “B-list” product, too (audiobooks still represent less than 7% of the worldwide book market). With its 188M loyal paying subscribers, Spotify could become a hub for book recommendations and bonus content (think: author-curated playlists) and expand the global audiobook audience.

Masstige

JCPenney phases out Sephora mini-shops and expands its own beauty stores in a shift to “masstige” cosmetics

3 jeans, 2 glosses… 1 trip. As JCPenney’s mini-shop partnership with Sephora comes to a close, the department-store chain is building its own beauty foundation. Last year JCP launched JCPenney Beauty shops in 10 stores and online, showcasing 250+ makeup and skincare brands. Its debut was designed to offset the end of the Sephora contract:

  • Old digs: JCP’s Sephora partnership once included 570+ shops-within-shops (#InceptionRetail) and contributed to nearly 15% of its prepandemic revenue.
  • New digs: JCP is expected to open 300 more mini beauty stores (complete with in-department salons) by early 2023 and another 300 in the spring.

Prime(r) real estate… Department stores are prime territory for beauty brands to attract on-the-go shoppers. Last month Kohl's announced plans to expand Sephora mini-shops across its 1.1K US locations (which it expects will yield $2B in sales by 2025). Meanwhile, rival Ulta plans to open 800 more of its stores-within-stores at Target.

  • Affordability: JCP wants to differentiate by offering more inclusive products and prices, shifting its focus from Sephora’s premium brands (think: Bobbi Brown, MAC).
  • Inclusivity: Nearly 20% of JCP Beauty’s products come from Thirteen Lune, a site featuring 100+ BIPOC-founded brands. JCP is also adding indie brands that have never been sold in major retailers.

Masstige > prestige… JCP’s Beauty focuses on mass-produced brands that are affordable, innovative, and inclusive. With beauty fans still splurging on cosmetics (see: lipstick index), “masstige” retailers are luring shoppers with affordability and variety. Last quarter, budget brand E.L.F. grew sales 26% — more than double what Wall Street expected — despite keeping prices low on best-sellers.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Charge: Electric-car rentals are getting juiced up: airport staple Hertz agreed to buy 175K EVs from GM in the next five years. GM aims to sell 1M EVs in North America in 2025 — 25X more than it sells now.
  • Hack: Uber blamed its recent data breach on Lapsus$, a teenage hacker collective that often seeks publicity, not cash. Lapsus$ has also hacked Microsoft, Nvidia, Cisco, Okta, and Samsung.
  • Meaty: Beyond Meat shares sank to a record low yesterday after the COO of the faux-meat maker was arrested over the weekend in connection with biting a man's (real-meat) nose in a road-rage incident.
  • Pledge: Amazon, Pfizer, Hilton, and Marriott have committed to hiring 20K refugees in the next three years. About 150K refugees from Ukraine and 80K from Afghanistan have arrived in the US this year.
  • Loot: Hackers reportedly stole $160M from DeFi market maker Wintermute. The CEO's hoping the thief will return the crypto for a payout (think: hack to return). $2B has been lost to crypto hacks this year through July.

Wednesday

  • Fed’s interest-rate decision expected
  • Earnings expected from General Mills, Lennar, Trip.com, H.B. Fuller Co., and KB Home

Authors of this Snacks own: shares of Amazon, Apple, GM, Google, Microsoft, Spotify, Nvidia, and Uber

ID: 2435390

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Do you want to run the State Department of McDonald’s?

A couple of days ago, a tweet making fun at McDonald’s hiring a “Manager for Diplomatic Relations” went viral.

At first glance, the idea that McDonald’s, a burger franchise known for its double quarter pounders and perfectly salted fries, is expanding its diplomatic influence with policy makers in Foggy Bottom and the world at large sounds comical. But it’s actually crucial.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

Nuke stocks up on AI excitement

For most of humanity, the thought of “nuclear-powered AI” sends a shiver down the spine. But the stock market is all for it! Just check out the list of top performing S&P 500 stocks this year. Just behind established AI plays — Super Micro Computer and Nvidia, you’ll find Constellation Energy, the largest operator of nuclear plants in the U.S. NRG Energy, which also operates nuclear plants, isn’t far behind. Bloomberg reports that CEO of power distributor Exelon — which spun off Constellation in 2022 — says in the Chicago area alone, AI could drive a 900% jump in demand for energy from data centers.

Tech

China makes Apple remove WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram from app store

In its latest move to restrict foreign tech, Beijing has ordered Apple to remove a number of popular messaging apps from its app store there, including WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram.

These apps had only been available through VPNs but were popular nonetheless, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Business

Tesla's recall reveals just how bad Cybertruck delivery numbers have been

Thanks to a recall of Tesla’s Cybertrucks, we now know how many of them have actually been delivered: 3,878 since the EV company began releasing them to customers in November.

In its third and fourth quarter earnings report, Tesla said that its current Cybertruck production capacity was greater than 125,000 a year. Musk had previously said he expected to produce 250,000 Cybertrucks a year by 2025.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

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Markets

Cocoa hits $11,000

Cocoa prices are breaking records on an almost daily basis — with cocoa futures closing at (another) all-time high of $11,020 per metric ton yesterday.

That’s up 158% since the start of the year, and over 4x on the typical prices seen in 2022 — as crop production continues to fall short of demand.

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices
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World out of balance: It costs the US 3¢ to make 1 penny

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For the record, that’s the 18th straight year the penny’s face value has been below production costs, fueling calls for abolishing the lowest value denomination coin. Canada started to phase out the penny in 2013, joining Australia, Brazil, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, and Israel, according to Smithsonian Magazine.

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Netflix is going to stop sharing subscriber numbers

After posting subscriber numbers that beat expectations today, Netflix says it’s no longer going to share those numbers starting in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a big deal since subscriber numbers have long been one of the main metrics that investors have looked at.

“In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential,” its shareholders letter read. “But now we’re generating very substantial profit and free cash flow.” The company said that it will focus on revenue and operating margin as its main financial metrics, while it will look at time spent on the platform to gauge customer satisfaction.

Another way to read this? They’ve hit market saturation and just aren’t going to be growing that much anymore, and they thought they’d end on a good note. Going forward they’re focusing on how to get more money out of the customers they do have.

They’re doing so by cracking down on password sharing and charging for extra members. They’re also pushing people to ad tiers, which are more profitable than non-ad tiers.

“Scaling ads to become a more meaningful contributor to our business in ‘25 and beyond,” Netflix said.

Netflix’s ads membership grew another 65% in Q1 over the previous one, after rising 70% the quarter before, and 40% of signups in ad markets continue to be for those ad plans.