Tuesday Aug.24, 2021

🚗 DoorDash & Uber's worst nightmare

_When the Uber is 57 minutes away: Plan B [Westend61 via GettyImages]_
_When the Uber is 57 minutes away: Plan B [Westend61 via GettyImages]_

Hey Snackers,

A 25-foot-tall rubber duck with "JOY" written on its chest randomly appeared in a Maine harbor. No one knows why it's there — but pretty much everyone wants to keep it.

Stocks jumped to start the week, after Pfizer's Covid vaccine became the first to gain full approval from the FDA. In other news, Bitcoin crossed $50K for the first time since May as more institutions signaled support for crypto coins.

Vax

It's official: Pfizer's Covid vaccine snags full FDA approval, setting the stage for more shots

Feels like deja vu... It's not. The FDA granted full approval for Pfizer and partner BioNTech's Covid vaccine. Thanks to emergency use authorization, 201M people in the US have gotten at least one vax shot. Pfizer's is the first vax to gain FDA-approval — it was also the first to get authorized for emergency use in December. Pfizer shares spiked 4% on the news. Moderna, whose application for full approval is under review, also closed the day up 7%.

The shot is hot… While 73% of US adults are vaxxed, vaccine demand remains strong globally. Less than 2% of people in Africa are vaxxed, and many countries are still clamoring for vaccines. Meanwhile, vaccine demand is surging in states hardest hit by the Delta variant. Now, FDA-approval could boost vaccine demand even more:

  • Less vax hesitation: Many health officials believe full approval could encourage vax-hesitant people to get the shot. In a recent poll, 30% of unvaxed people said they’d be more likely to get a shot if it were fully approved.
  • More vax mandates: The full stamp of FDA approval will make it easier for businesses and other orgs to require shots. United Airlines, the Defense Department, and New York City schools are already mandating it for employees.

Covid vaccines are here to stay… and so is vax cash. Pfizer expects a whopping $33.5B in Covid vax sales this year, and that forecast came before it got full approval. Analysts expect that next year's Covid vax sales will significantly surpass 2021 levels, and remain strong for years. Pfizer’s 2022 Covid vax sales are expected to be 70% higher than this year’s. And don't forget the booster shots: health officials recommend that Americans who got Pfizer or Moderna's shot series get a booster eight months after their second shot.

Gig

Prop 22 reversal: the future of the gig economy is up in the air (again)

Just when you thought it was over... Think again. The CA gig-worker law saga has more sequels than Fast & Furious. On Friday, a California judge ruled that Prop 22 is unconstitutional and unenforceable. In November, CA voters overwhelmingly passed the ballot measure, which has classified gig drivers as independent contractors.

  • The most expensive ballot measure in CA history: Uber, Lyft, DoorDash, Instacart, and others spent more than $200M to support Prop 22. Uber and others say their drivers largely back the prop, but labor unions say it's a bad deal for workers.
  • Next steps: Gig companies are appealing the ruling, and won't have to immediately reclassify workers. But it's a major wrinkle in their effort to preserve the gig model.

9 to 5 at Uber Eats... Means no moonlighting for Grubhub. With Prop 22, gigs drivers gained new benefits like: health insurance if you work at least 15 hours per week, at least 120% of minimum wage, and 30 cents reimbursed per mile driven. If Prop 22 is overturned...

  • For drivers: Drivers would get full-time benefits (think: sick leave and PTO). But because they'd be employees, they would have to work a set schedule of hours, and could lose the flexibility to work multiple apps.
  • For consumers: Expect even higher prices and longer waits. To fund a more expensive workforce, companies would pass costs to consumers and may cut drivers. Ride-hail prices have already soared 53% in the first half of this year due to driver shortages and the new Prop 22 benefits.

The gig economy is at existential risk... If the CA judge's ruling is upheld, chronically unprofitable apps like Uber and DoorDash would likely become even more unprofitable. As the most populous US state, California is a critical market for gig companies — and its decision could shape gig law across the country. A Prop 22-like ballot will be voted on in Massachusetts next year. The outcome of CA's ruling could set a precedent.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Chipper: Intel secured a Defense Department deal to produce chips in the US, as the global chip shortage highlights the need for more domestic chip-making.
  • Vax: NYC, the US' largest school district, will require all teachers and staff to get at least one Covid vaccine dose before September 27.
  • Spacial: Richard Branson's satellite-launching company Virgin Orbit is going public in a $3.2B SPAC merger, joining Virgin Galactic on the public market.
  • Green: Furniture legend IKEA will sell wind and solar energy to consumers, in a push to be "climate positive" by 2030.
  • SFW: OnlyFans, which is famous for NSFW adult content, will ban "sexually-explicit conduct" on its platform after receiving pressure from financial partners.
  • Cards: OpenTable teamed up with digital ID company Clear to make it easier for diners to prove their vax status — handy for brunching in NYC.

Tuesday

  • New home sales
  • Earnings expected from Intuit, Pinduoduo, Best Buy, Nordstrom, and Urban Outfitters

Authors of this Snacks own: shares of Uber, Moderna, Clear, and Bitcoin

ID: 1799693

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Latest Stories

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

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Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia
Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

Job switchers and stayers

The FTC is banning non-compete clauses

Why that might make job switching even more lucrative

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.