Wednesday Sep.08, 2021

🧪 The big coin experiment

_Not your average B-Day [MEDITERRANEAN/E+ via GettyImages]_
_Not your average B-Day [MEDITERRANEAN/E+ via GettyImages]_

Hey Snackers,

Summer is almost over, and the McFlurry machine is still broken. The FTC is reportedly looking into McDonald's infamous McFlurry malfunctions.

Stocks ticked down yesterday as investors digested the bummer August jobs report, and Bitcoin dropped 10% after El Salvador made it an official currency.

BTC

The big coin experiment: El Salvador becomes the first to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender

"Happy B-Day"... Just got a whole new meaning. Yesterday, El Salvador became the first country to adopt Bitcoin as a national currency. Crypto enthusiasts call it "B-Day." Bitcoin is now legal tender alongside the US dollar, which has been El Salvador's official currency since 2001. The Salvadoran government is rolling out Bitcoin ATMs and snazzy kiosks — and offering a $30 BTC credit to those who download its govt-run Bitcoin wallet, Chivo.

  • Crypto pupusas: Salvadorans can now pay for anything in Bitcoin, from tortillas to rent. Twitter was flooded with images of BTC-bought McMuffins.
  • Crypto finances: Salvadorans can pay taxes and bank loans in BTC, and won't pay capital gains tax when converting to USD.

Crypto instead of cake... Not everyone's into it. El Salvador plans to spend $225M+ in the rollout, but ~65% of Salvadorans don’t want the govt to spend tax money on Bitcoin adoption, and 80% lack confidence in BTC. Meanwhile, the IMF is worried BTC's volatility poses major risks to El Salvador's economy, which is already one of Central America's poorest. A Bitcoin price plunge could make its huge debt load even worse. Just yesterday, BTC dropped 10%. Some potential pros...

  • Access: El Salvador's President says BTC will improve financial inclusion among the 70% of Salvadorans who don’t have access to traditional financial services.
  • Remittances: Because BTC is often cheaper to transfer, it could lower fees for Salvadorans abroad who send money to family in El Salvador. Nearly a third of the economy’s dollars come from “remittances.”

It's the first big coin experiment... and the stakes are high. El Salvador's BTC adoption could destabilize its fragile economy, boost corruption, and be a boon to the Salvadoran president’s authoritarian tactics — or it could be a social and economic success. It’s all TBD. But the experiment could be valuable for other governments considering using crypto as legal tender.

Wires

Hurricane Ida outages expose a growing problem for America’s aging power grid

Down to the wire... Hurricane Ida cut off power for ~1M people in Louisiana and Mississippi. The storm knocked out 31K electric poles – more than hurricanes Katrina, Ike, Delta, and Zeta combined. Plus, all those poles were above ground – aka: not protected against 150-mph wind. Entergy, the utility giant with 3M customers across the Gulf states, has restored power to less than half of its affected customers.

Pole-arizing issue... After the Senate passed its $1T infrastructure bill, officials are debating whether to build new power lines above or below ground. Underground wires can be more than 10X as expensive to build as above-ground wires — but they're also more resilient in disasters like hurricanes and wildfires. And America’s ~70-year-old electric grid is 20 years overdue for an update:

  • 10X = The increase in major US electricity outages between the mid-80s and 2012. Outages more than doubled between 2017 and 2020.
  • $7T = The estimated cost of modernizing America's electricity grid — around 9X more than Biden's infrastructure bill sets aside for electric infrastructure investment.

Natural monopolies, extreme outcomes... One-third of US electricity companies are state-regulated "natural monopolies" that earn pre-determined returns, which means little incentive to pay for pricey upgrades. Often, taxpayers end up footing the costs: a whopping $99B just last year. Now, policy makers are debating whether to pay utility companies to update their infrastructure, or fine them if they don't: Last year, PG&E was fined ~$2B after its old wires caused several devastating wildfires.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • eToy: Toyota says it'll spend $9B over the next decade on electric car battery factories. It's gearing up to sell 2M EVs per year by 2030.
  • TikOff: TikTok has reportedly surpassed YouTube in US average watch time — at least on Android phones.
  • Afford: Ford poached former Tesla and Apple exec Doug Field, who helped lead Apple's secret car project, to spearhead its emerging tech efforts.
  • Billz: BlackRock raised $1B for the first-ever foreign-run Chinese mutual fund, drawing criticism as US-China tensions boil.
  • Krypto: The head of the UK's financial watchdog criticized a Kim Kardashian Insta post that promoted crypto, saying "social media influencers are routinely paid by scammers."
  • Rosy: Thanks to blooming bouquet demand, 1-800-FLOWERS cracked $2B in sales last quarter for the first time — a 43% surge from last year.

Wednesday

  • Earnings expected from Lululemon, SentinelOne, GameStop, and Genius Sports

Authors of this Snacks own: Bitcoin and shares of Ford

ID: 1828694

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Latest Stories

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/23/24

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.