Tuesday Sep.03, 2019

How to avoid tariffs like Keanu

_To dodge a tariff, channel your inner Neo_
_To dodge a tariff, channel your inner Neo_

12:01am Sunday.

While you were not-reading-news mid-LDW, a fresh $110B of Made in China goods were hit with a 15% tariff tax by the US.

Today we're thinking of our Snackers in Hurricane Dorian's path as the 4-day week kicks off.

Highs

Who's up...

Therapy in aisle 6... Walmart's making it happen. The chain subtly updated its website last week to include hearing, vision, dentistry, and mental health services for $59-$99. The pilot stealthily starts on September 13th at one Georgia location as Walmart tests the concept. With 140M American visitors every week and 1.5M employees, it could actually democratize doctor access like it did tube socks.

"Peloton sells happiness."... The privately-held workout-tech unicorn stuck that in its IPO paperwork as it plans to go public. Peloton makes nearly 80% of its money from selling $2K bikes or $4K treadmills — the rest rolls in from $39 monthly video subscriptions to its streaming fitness classes. It lost $196M last year, but we were impressed by the loyalty of the 500K+ Pelotonistas: Only 0.65% of customers end their subscription each month.

Lows

...and who's down

Spend money to make money... Citigroup raised its minimum wage in the US to $15/hour. It's not doing it for smiles — with an ultra-competitive market for workers, it's upping paychecks to keep tellers from ditching for Bank of America (which pays $20/hour). We also learned that Panera Bread has 100% worker turnover — if it hired 100 sandwich-crafters, it'll lose 100 by the end of the year. Promotions cost money. Losing a worker costs more.

Your new farm-raised almond butter routine... is killing your childhood peanut butter go-to. Smucker's sales dropped 6% as grocery stores are stuck cutting peanut butter prices. The 122-year-old master of jelly, Jif, and UnCrustables (picture a PB&J dumpling) claims grocers face 2 problems: price pressure from Walmart/Amazon and taste buds preferring alt-nuts over peanuts.

Avoid

How to not pay for tariffs: Dodge 'em (Dollar Stores figured it out)

2 dollar store companies, 30K American locations... Stocks of dollar chains are living their best lives. Dollar General's CEO put it best: "The economy is continuing to create more of our core customer. " While rising American inequality's been great for his business, the trade war hasn't. Then last week happened:

Red pill or blue pill?... Imports from China made dollar stores possible. But Trump's latest tariffs (a 15% tax on $110B of Chinese goods) just kicked in Sunday. That left dollar store managers with 2 options: raise prices by 15% (make customers pay) or don't raise prices (pay the tariffs themselves). But they twisted into 3 way more creative options:

  1. Find the same products made in other countries: If your Solo cups are made in China, find Solo cups made in Vietnam.
  2. Find just-as-good products (aka "substitutes"): Paper cups should do just fine. Source ones crafted in the US instead.
  3. Make someone else pay them (aka "negotiate"): Try to get the Chinese Solo cup company to reduce prices by 15%.

Dollar stores get a "10" for dodge-ability... Those 3 tricks above didn't completely offset trade war pain, but Wall Street is pumped that they're adjusting well. Other retailers aren't as nimble. Picture shoe, apparel, and electronics companies — you can't just up and move a Nike, Ralph Lauren, or GoPro factory. And Abercrombie can't start stocking American Eagle henleys to avoid tariffs (the teens will notice).

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Work: 6 things that'll turn your manager into your fiercest advocate
  • Life: Personal branding for people who hate personal branding (you've got 4 options)
  • Money: How much a cheeseburger currently costs in every state
  • Venture: The 17 biggest mistakes you're making with your pitch deck
  • Crypto: Understanding cryptocurrencies — we break it down

This Week

  • Monday: Markets closed for Labor Day
  • Tuesday: British courts decide whether the UK's parliament can be suspended while they try to figure out a Brexit deal in 3 weeks
  • Wednesday: The first earnings report from Slack since its direct listing
  • Thursday: Earnings from Lululemon, DocuSign, and Zoom
  • Friday: The big August jobs report

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Lululemon and Amazon

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Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

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Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

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Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

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Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales