Tuesday Nov.01, 2022

💸 JPMorgan’s rent revolution

Tap to pay rent? (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)
Tap to pay rent? (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

Hey Snackers,

Crypto island = not a British reality show. Real-estate developers are marketing a "crypto-native" luxury island in the Bahamas complete with NFT villas. The island previously hosted Fyre Fest. What could go wrong?

Stocks fell to close out the month as investors await tomorrow’s Fed rate decision, which is expected to be a fourth consecutive “jumbo” hike (think: 75 basis points). In October, the Dow had its best month since 1976, while the S&P 500 gained 8%.

Checked

Chase launches a techy rent-payment platform to boost reliable revenue (minus the checks)

Chuck your checkbook… Rent payments are entering the 21st century. Yesterday JPMorgan Chase said it's testing a digital platform called “Story” to automate rent payments, which are still often paid by check. Here’s how it’s supposed to work:

  • Renter center: Story will let renters enroll in auto-pay programs, get notifications, and view their payment history online.
  • Owner dashboard: Story will allow landlords to view payments across their properties, use analytics to set prices, and screen prospective tenants.

Rent tech is stuck in the dark ages… Today, 78% of US renters pay their rent by check — a paper technology that’s been used since the 1400s. One reason: most of America’s 12M landlords have relatively few units and collect payment just once a month, so they haven’t needed fancy systems. Now startups and banks are pushing for techier tools:

  • Rent rewards: Bilt Rewards, which offers a credit card in partnership with Mastercard and Wells Fargo, lets users earn rewards points by paying rent on time and then use those points to pay for travel, Amazon purchases, or even homes.
  • Big bucks: This month Bilt raised $150M at a $1.5B valuation, and rent-tech startups Esusu, Stake, and Piñata have also raised millions for rent-rewards programs.

Banks are betting big on boring… Banking big shots like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are investing in more consistent revenue streams like specialty consumer loans and co-branded cards to offset volatility in their investment-banking and trading divisions — and rental payments are as consistent as it gets (though less exciting than IPOs). JPM is already the biggest lender to US landlords; now it aims to snag a chunk of the $500B/year that Americans spend on rent.

IOU

Central banks are losing money as interest rates roar, swallowing their own bitter pill

Venmo requesting JPowell… Everyday folks are struggling with higher interest rates, from mortgages to hefty credit-card payments. But Jack and Jill aren’t the only ones: central banks are suffering from their own medicine.

  • The Fed’s losing money — something it’s never consistently done before. That’s partly because it now has to pay higher interest to banks for depositing money at the Fed (think: reserves and overnight loans).
  • Losses are piling up: The Fed’s interest payouts now exceed the $8T+ that it earns on Treasury bonds and other securities. FYI: in recent years, it earned about $100B in profit, which is sent to the Treasury to reduce federal deficits.
  • Not just the US: Central banks worldwide are dealing with the fallout of their inflation-fighting rate hikes, which don’t seem likely to slow anytime soon. Eurozone inflation just hit a record 10.7%.

The name’s bond… Higher interest payments on bank deposits aren’t the only problem. The bond market is experiencing its worst selloff in a generation. As rates rise, the value of existing bonds falls. People are selling old bonds as new ones are issued at higher rates.

  • That’s bad for the Fed and other central banks that racked up huge bond portfolios to help stimulate their pandemic economies (bond-buying = more cash in circulation).
  • As bond prices plunge, banks are watching the value of those holding plummet. The central banks of Australia, Switzerland, and the Netherlands are already seeing red. Global government-bond losses are on track for the worst year since 1949.

Pressure might not “break” the bank… but enough political backlash might make it adjust course. While losses don’t hamper central banks’ ability to conduct monetary policy (aka: do their job), they’re drawing concern from politicians. Without income from the Fed, the Treasury needs to borrow more to fund government spending. Now, calls are growing to slash the interest payments that central banks make to commercial banks.

DEFI(NE)

Heard on the Block: “CBDC”

🛹 If the “How do you do, fellow kids” meme were a crypto…

Creators like Satoshi Nakamoto and companies including Circle have launched cryptocurrencies. Now central banks want in on the fun with a digital currency they can issue and control (aka: a “central bank digital currency,” or CBDC). India's central bank plans to start its CBDC pilot today, and the US Fed is “exploring” CBDCs.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Boot: Days after taking over as Twitter CEO, Elon Musk has dissolved the company’s board and is said to be planning a round of layoffs. Also: Twitter might charge users $20/month for a coveted blue checkmark.
  • TokShop: TikTok owner ByteDance is rolling out Amazon-esque sites to lure US shoppers. As China’s economy slows, tech titans like Alibaba and JD have turned to the West for growth.
  • DisNo: Shanghai Disney abruptly shut down, locking in visitors until they tested negative for Covid, after the city reported new cases. Mickey’s park has closed twice this year because of China's strict Covid policy.
  • Complicated: Shares of robo-truck biz TuSimple fell 45% after it fired its CEO and cofounder, Xiaodi Hou. The FBI and SEC are reportedly investigating whether the company defrauded investors and transferred TuSimple’s IP to a China-backed startup.
  • Check: Starting today, NYC employers with four or more employees are required to include the salary range in job posts. Advocates of the new law hope the transparency will help close racial and gender wage gaps.

Tuesday

  • Earnings expected from Eli Lilly, Pfizer, BP, AMD, Sony, Mondelez, Airbnb, Marathon Petroleum, Uber, Public Storage, and McKesson

Authors of this Snacks own: shares of Amazon, Disney, Twitter, and Uber

ID: 2567279

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Latest Stories

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

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Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia
Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

Job switchers and stayers

The FTC is banning non-compete clauses

Why that might make job switching even more lucrative

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.