Thursday Nov.12, 2020

🚙 Lyft's uneventful 2020

_When Lyft starts telling you its "story" on the plane_
_When Lyft starts telling you its "story" on the plane_

Hey Snackers,

Whole Foods is collabing with Progressive to offer Thanksgiving "insurance" with a $35 gift card to customers who "commit a turkey cooking fail." You must submit a picture as proof of your inedible turkey — because your family's ridicule isn't enough.

The Nasdaq stock index rebounded yesterday, driven by a jump in Apple (still the most valuable company on Earth).

Yawn

Lyft's boring 2020 is reflected in its stock price (just look at Uber)

Napping during the earnings call... Lyft just reported quarterly earnings, which seem to be its only mildly spotlight-worthy event of 2020 — and they weren't so thrilling, either.

  • Active riders jumped 44% from the previous (horrible) quarter, signaling a mild recovery in ride-hail. But they were still down 44% from 2019.
  • Lyft lost $460M, nearly as much as in the same quarter last year. But it's hoping to be EBITDA profitable next year.

Whip up the scorecard... While Lyft has been doing the least this year, Uber's been aggressively expanding its products and making big moves:

  • Food delivery: Uber agreed to buy Postmates for $2.7B, while UberEats orders more than doubled during the pandemic.
  • Logistics: Uber Freight's gig trucking business raised $500M and is now worth $3.3B.
  • Public Transit: Uber started selling its software for public transport use, and bought public transit-focused Routematch.
  • Micromobility: Uber led a big investment in Lime and offers both Lime and its own Jump electric scooters/bikes in-app.
  • Aerial mobility: Uber Elevate partnered with GE for "Uber Air" helicopter ride-sharing (ETA: 2023).
  • Rides: Uber's launching "Reserve" this week to let riders book their fave drivers in advance.

Lyft's fail is probably reflected in its stock ... Lyft offers bike/scooter sharing and has tested essential deliveries for businesses in a few cities (food, groceries, etc). Besides that, it's a pure-play Rides company — not great during a pandemic (even with the Prop 22 victory). That's likely why Lyft stock is down 16% this year, while Uber is up 49%.

Burrito

Zoom competitor Hopin raises $125M to be the Live Nation of virtual events

Overheard on marketing... The Hollywood Bowl of virtual conferences – or Zoom's socially adept cousin? Virtual conferencing startup Hopin wants to be your home for live online events. But it's biggest strength might be impeccable timing: it officially launched in June 2019, just around six months before... you know what. The glow-up since March 2020:

  • User explosion: In eight months, Hopin grew from 5K users and 1.8K event hosts to 3.5M users and 50K host orgs (including NATO, the UN, and Slack).
  • Cash explosion: Hopin went from basically 0 to $20M in annual sales, and says it's now profitable. It just raised $125M in venture cash and is valued at over $2B (#DoubleUnicorn).

Burrito for lunch... means you're turning off your Zoom cam (and mic). Hoppin's positioning itself as a more social version of "other platforms" (major Zoom shade). It lets you exchange virtual business cards, fill out polls, and explore interactive "rooms" and expo booths. It also has "backstages" for speakers and branding placements for event sponsors. And it's building an Eventbrite-like market that helps you discover events.

Hoppin could thrive post-pandemic, too... The big Pfizer vax news sent Zoom stock plunging on Tuesday — investors are already envisioning a return to normalcy. But Hopin says it was born to be a “hybrid” service that complements physical events. That's something that could stick post-pandemic, even though the growth won't be as huge.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Guac-y: Burrito legend Chipotle opens its first digital-only restaurant as online orders soar.
  • Confused: ByteDance's deadline to sell its TikTok US assets is today. But TikTok says it's been ghosted by the Trump admin.
  • Pizza: Nuro raises $500M at a $5B valuation for its self-driving EV delivery startup (now that's a Silicon Valley mouthful).
  • Lock: Biden's Covid advisor says a 4- to-6 week lockdown could control the pandemic and revive the economy.
  • Baba: Alibaba, the "Amazon of China," raked in a record $56B during its Single's Day shopping event.
  • Closed: New York will set a 10pm curfew on bars, restaurants, and gyms on Friday (don't even think of partying at Planet Fitness).

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Thursday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Apple and Uber

ID: 1409889

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Do you want to run the State Department of McDonald’s?

A couple of days ago, a tweet making fun at McDonald’s hiring a “Manager for Diplomatic Relations” went viral.

At first glance, the idea that McDonald’s, a burger franchise known for its double quarter pounders and perfectly salted fries, is expanding its diplomatic influence with policy makers in Foggy Bottom and the world at large sounds comical. But it’s actually crucial.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

Nuke stocks up on AI excitement

For most of humanity, the thought of “nuclear-powered AI” sends a shiver down the spine. But the stock market is all for it! Just check out the list of top performing S&P 500 stocks this year. Just behind established AI plays — Super Micro Computer and Nvidia, you’ll find Constellation Energy, the largest operator of nuclear plants in the U.S. NRG Energy, which also operates nuclear plants, isn’t far behind. Bloomberg reports that CEO of power distributor Exelon — which spun off Constellation in 2022 — says in the Chicago area alone, AI could drive a 900% jump in demand for energy from data centers.

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China makes Apple remove WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram from app store

In its latest move to restrict foreign tech, Beijing has ordered Apple to remove a number of popular messaging apps from its app store there, including WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram.

These apps had only been available through VPNs but were popular nonetheless, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

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Tesla's recall reveals just how bad Cybertruck delivery numbers have been

Thanks to a recall of Tesla’s Cybertrucks, we now know how many of them have actually been delivered: 3,878 since the EV company began releasing them to customers in November.

In its third and fourth quarter earnings report, Tesla said that its current Cybertruck production capacity was greater than 125,000 a year. Musk had previously said he expected to produce 250,000 Cybertrucks a year by 2025.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

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Markets

Cocoa hits $11,000

Cocoa prices are breaking records on an almost daily basis — with cocoa futures closing at (another) all-time high of $11,020 per metric ton yesterday.

That’s up 158% since the start of the year, and over 4x on the typical prices seen in 2022 — as crop production continues to fall short of demand.

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices

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Netflix is going to stop sharing subscriber numbers

After posting subscriber numbers that beat expectations today, Netflix says it’s no longer going to share those numbers starting in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a big deal since subscriber numbers have long been one of the main metrics that investors have looked at.

“In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential,” its shareholders letter read. “But now we’re generating very substantial profit and free cash flow.” The company said that it will focus on revenue and operating margin as its main financial metrics, while it will look at time spent on the platform to gauge customer satisfaction.

Another way to read this? They’ve hit market saturation and just aren’t going to be growing that much anymore, and they thought they’d end on a good note. Going forward they’re focusing on how to get more money out of the customers they do have.

They’re doing so by cracking down on password sharing and charging for extra members. They’re also pushing people to ad tiers, which are more profitable than non-ad tiers.

“Scaling ads to become a more meaningful contributor to our business in ‘25 and beyond,” Netflix said.

Netflix’s ads membership grew another 65% in Q1 over the previous one, after rising 70% the quarter before, and 40% of signups in ad markets continue to be for those ad plans.