Tuesday Feb.08, 2022

✈️ Spirit x Frontier

Bumble goes cherry-picking [Monty Rakusen/Image Source via Getty Images]
Bumble goes cherry-picking [Monty Rakusen/Image Source via Getty Images]

Hey Snackers,

Don’t try rolling down the 405 with this bimmer: at the Winter Olympics, BMW took its lux innovativeness to the slopes with a two-person BMW bobsled.

Stocks fell to start the week as tech continued slumping. In recovery news, employers added a record 6.6M jobs in President Biden’s first year in office. Meanwhile, Canada’s capital has declared a state of emergency as the country enters its second week of Covid mandate protests.

Baggage

Frontier and Spirit agree to a $6.6B merger, but regulators and travelers may not be on board

Flight costs $80… but the overweight luggage costs $180, and we hope you packed a sandwich. Budget airlines like Spirit and Frontier are (in)famous for low prices, zero frills, and pricey add-ons. They rebounded from the pandemic quicker than legacy airlines because their primary customers — thrifty vacationers — returned to airports before business travelers. Now America’s two budget behemoths are tying the knot: Frontier and Spirit agreed to a $6.6B merger, creating what would be the fifth-largest US airline: #FrontSpirit (real name TBD). Yesterday Frontier’s stock rose 3% and Spirit’s soared 17%.

  • Big plans: The companies said the merger would result in more cheap flights in underserved areas, 10K new jobs by 2026, and no layoffs.
  • Bad PR: Yesterday morning Frontier canceled 20% of its flights because of tech issues — not a good look when you’re marketing more flights.

Battling the Big Four… by adding one more. The Frontier-Spirit deal is the latest in a long line of airline mergers: American, Delta, United, and Southwest were formed from 10 airlines and make up 80% of US air traffic. #FrontSpirit would command only 10% market share, but it could face a tough path forward:

  • President Biden wants to boost airline competitions to ensure inexpensive, transparent travel. Although the merged companies would compete with big airlines, analysts say it’ll squeeze out smaller budget airlines like Breeze and Avelo.
  • Last year the DOJ blocked a partnership between American Airlines and JetBlue, even though it wasn’t even a merger. The last US airline merger was Alaska and Virgin’s combination in 2016.

Takeoff can be tricky when regulators want you grounded… Frontier and Spirit insist that their merger will benefit customers by providing low-cost flights in more cities. But while the deal may have taken off without trouble during past presidencies, analysts say Biden’s “big is bad” approach could complicate the deal. Plus, Frontier and Spirit have the industry's worst customer-satisfaction ratings, and the new airline could face competition for cost-conscious flyers from the likes of American, which is expanding its budget flights.

Cherry

Bumble makes its first purchase — French dating app Fruitz — to win over Gen Z’ers in Europe

Honey & Berries… a match made in swipe heaven. Yesterday, Bumble made its first-ever acquisition with quirky five-year-old French dating app Fruitz. ICYMI, Bumble is the popular dating app where women make the first move. Bumble’s already in some European countries, but the US and Latin America still make up more than half its users. Meanwhile, Bumble’s other dating app, Badoo, has more than 300M users worldwide. With Fruitz, Bumble is doubling down on its Euro reach.

  • Cherry-picking: Users are shown profiles based on which fruit icon they pick. Each fruit = a relationship type (think: watermelon for friends with benefits, cherry for long-term commitment).
  • Choose your perks: Like most dating apps, Fruitz is free but offers premium paid features. For example: The “pollen” add-on shows profiles closest to you.
  • Bumble’s sales jumped 24% last quarter to 200M thanks to extra paid users.

Financial stability > ship stability… The pandemic has influenced younger generations to value financial stability over serious relationships. Only 1 in 10 Gen Zers says they’re “committed to being committed.” Millennials still make up the majority of app users, but in saturated markets like the US, new growth has been hard to come by. Now:

  • Last quarter Bumble saw its first user-growth decline since going public, as swipe madness cooled in the US.
  • Bumble can leverage Fruitz’s ability to reach Gen Z where it’s seeing “rapid growth” in less saturated countries like in Belgium, France, Spain, Switzerland, and the Netherlands.

It’s not one size fits all... when it comes to dating. Because in order to reach your customers, you have to know your customer. That’s why rival Match has scooped up dating sites like Harmonica, which caters to Middle Eastern users, and OurTime, which is designed for singles age 50 and older. As millennials start to age out of dating apps, Gen Z represents the next big market for paying customers. That means offering more friend-zone-friendly features (like: Bumble BFF) and incorporating interests — or funny fruit icons — over swipeable pics.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Saga: Spotify's CEO apologized to employees for Joe Rogan's use of racial slurs in previous podcast episodes, but said he wouldn’t pull him from the platform. Rogan was already under fire for Covid misinfo.
  • Peddle: Peloton shares soared on rumors that Amazon and Nike might consider buying the struggling fit-tech company. Peloton’s value has plunged on PR nightmares and falling demand for its spin bikes.
  • Payback: Swedish price-comparison site PriceRunner said it’s suing Google for $2.4B, alleging that the US search giant prioritized its Google Shopping product over competitors’. The EU had already fined Google $2.7B over the same issue in 2017.
  • Spidey: Toy maker Hasbro’s sales last quarter crushed expectations, jumping 17% on demand for “Spider-Man” and other movie toys. But shares fell after the company said rising transportation costs could hurt profits.
  • Meaty: Tyson doubled its profit last quarter as meat demand held up despite rising prices. This year the chicken-nugget icon said it plans to invest $2B to boost production and automation.

Tuesday

  • Earnings expected from: Pfizer, BP, Coinbase, Chipotle, Lyft, Peloton, Warner Music Group, Sysco, Thomson Reuters, and S&P Global

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Alphabet, Spotify, Amazon, Match, and Delta

ID: 2028407

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Tech

SpaceX is creating NASA spaceport congestion problems

NASA is considering expanding its Wallops Island, Virginia, facilities to support three times as many rocket launches, TechCrunch reports. Why does it need space for that many rockets? Mostly Elon Musk’s SpaceX. Launches by SpaceX and other private space exploration companies have been taking off in recent years.

Currently the Wallops Flight Facility authorizes 18 launches a year. The proposed additions could bring that number up to 52. Given that the U.S. had 116 launch attempts in all of last year, an additional 34 launches adds a lot more capacity in an increasingly lucrative space.

The space economy was already worth $564 billion in 2022 and is expected to grow another 41% in five years.

Currently the Wallops Flight Facility authorizes 18 launches a year. The proposed additions could bring that number up to 52. Given that the U.S. had 116 launch attempts in all of last year, an additional 34 launches adds a lot more capacity in an increasingly lucrative space.

The space economy was already worth $564 billion in 2022 and is expected to grow another 41% in five years.

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Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia
Markets

Carvana’s stock is sometimes up, sometimes down, always volatile

Shares in online car seller Carvana surged some 34% yesterday, continuing their recent resurgence. That rebound has made the father-son duo behind the company some $11B since late 2022 — a period when the stock was dropping as much as 40% in a single day, and was teetering on the verge of insolvency as creditors explored options to restructure its debt.

Since then the company, famous for its “car vending machines”, has seen its fortunes reverse, as the used-car market has stabilized and sales have returned to growth (up 17% in Q1 2024). Most importantly, however, Carvana seems to have gotten a handle on its massive $5B+ debt load — which was a major factor in why the equity in the company was so volatile — after swinging into profitable territory in Q1.

Yesterday’s move leaves the stock up more than 16x in the last 12 months.

Carvana stock volatility

Since then the company, famous for its “car vending machines”, has seen its fortunes reverse, as the used-car market has stabilized and sales have returned to growth (up 17% in Q1 2024). Most importantly, however, Carvana seems to have gotten a handle on its massive $5B+ debt load — which was a major factor in why the equity in the company was so volatile — after swinging into profitable territory in Q1.

Yesterday’s move leaves the stock up more than 16x in the last 12 months.

Carvana stock volatility

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$110B

Apple announced a massive $110B boost in share buybacks — the biggest of all time. That’s even higher than the $90 billion analysts expected. For context in the last 12 years Apple spent a total of $650 billion buying back its own stock. The entire S&P 500 did $795 billion last year. That certainly softens the blow from a 4% decrease in revenue.

Ozempic, Wegovy drive Novo Nordisk profits up

Shares of Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk fell on Thursday, as investors digested the latest hard numbers from the maker of heavily-hyped drugs Ozempic and Wegovy.

For the record, sales of both continue to explode, though sales of Wegovy, which more than doubled to kr. 9.8B, came in about 10% below analyst expectations. Ozempic sales, which slowed, actually were better than expectations.

In Danish currency terms, Q1 profit jumped 28% for the company, which is based in suburban Copenhagen. Novo Nordisk’s market value of roughly $570 billion is now larger than the entire Danish economy.

Luke Kawa
5/2/24

Short sellers are getting squeezed on Carvana, Wayfair, and Enovix

Shares of Carvana, Wayfair, and Enovix were ripping Thursday morning.

These companies don’t have too much in common from a business operations standpoint — one makes batteries, another needs batteries, and one sells furniture and rugs that really tie the room together.

What they do have in common right now though: traders were betting on their shares to fall, and each released quarterly earnings reports either after the market closed on Wednesday or on Thursday morning that weren’t as bad as feared, in one way or another.

As of mid-April, short interest as a percentage of equity float for these stocks ranged from 26% (Wayfair) to 31% (Enovix), according to exchange data.

Betting against two of these companies had paid off so far this year, with Carvana being the exception. Shares of the used-car retailer were up 78% heading into Thursday’s session versus Wayfair (-14%), and Enovix (-47%). For comparison, the S&P 500 Index is up 5.8 percent year-to-date.

Hat tip to Tom Hearden, senior trader at Skylands Capital, for bringing this to our attention.