Sherwood
Thursday Jun.11, 2020

🍕 Uber-Grubhub courtship gets Euro-crashed

_JustEat swooping in for Grubhub_
_JustEat swooping in for Grubhub_

Hey Snackers,

From Dalgona coffee to frog bread, TikTok-viral foods embody the creative renaissance of Gen Z's quarantine. The best one yet: Baby Yoda pancake cereal. Taste cuteness, you must.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq closed over 10K for the first time ever, lifted by Facebook, Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft which hit all-time highs Tuesday. Combined, they're worth almost $5T. Tesla also hit a record price, becoming the world's 2nd most valuable carmaker (just shy of Toyota).

Eat

Uber-Grubhub marriage is off the table after a European swoops in with $7.3B

Speak now or forever hold your pizza... Back in May, Uber was courting Grubhub for an engagement that would marry the two food delivery giants into a market leader (surpassing DoorDash) — now a European stud has swooped in to steal Uber's thunder.

  • Intercontinental: American Grubhub is merging with European delivery giant Just Eat Takeaway.com — if you think that's a mouthful, that's because the European company was itself formed out of a merger.
  • Confirmed threesome: In January, British food deliverer Just Eat merged with Dutch rival Takeaway.com in an $7.6B deal — now, the merged company is eating up Grubhub for $7.3B. Combined, they'll have 70M global active customers.

Parents prefer this marriage... US regulators aren't so thrilled about the consolidations coming out of the hyper-competitive delivery wars (where the best promo code wins).

  • Uber pulled out of the deal talks because of antitrust concerns — Uber and Grubhub reportedly couldn't agree on who would shoulder most of the risk in the likely scenario that regulators got involved.
  • A marriage with Just Eat solves this problem. Since the company doesn't have a US presence, the antitrust risk is much lower. JustEat and Grubhub aren't currently competing in the same market, so their merger doesn't hurt competition.
  • BTW — Just Eat’s market value is over 3X that of Grubhub’s ($16B to $5.4B).

This defeats the purpose of the consolidation plan... Grubhub and Uber hoped to merge to reduce aggressive price competition (and "promiscuous" customers). But the Just Eat/Grubhub merger combines two leaders in separate markets — domestic competition stays the same. No delivery fee-jacking is expected as a result of this deal. This merger is more about cost synergies (lowering duplicate costs) than revenue ones (being able to increase prices).

Grow

Scotts Miracle-Gro helps cannabis producers miracle grow pot: a tale of two hustles

When the weed killer is also the weed grower... The green thumb takes on a new meaning. Scotts Miracle Gro stock is up 84% since mid-March, when the lockdown-driven home makeover frenzy took hold. Since decking out the house extends to the yard, Scotts' lawn/garden care sales have surged (pesticides are the rosé of summer gardening):

  • Scotts' Miracle-Gro announced that plant soil/food sales surged almost 40% in May on pimp-yo-lawn love.
  • Then it boosted its 2020 US sales forecast from 7% pre-coronavirus to 16%-18% after. That's largely thanks to its interesting side hustle...

Side hustle smokes the main hustle... A few years ago, Scotts decided it wanted a piece of the cannabis market (minus the cannabis). Enter...

  • Hydroponic systems: Tools for growing plants with nutrient-infused water instead of soil. Hydroponics are used by cannabis-growers to control pot production/quality — so Scotts went ham and acquired 50 hydroponics-related brands. Now...
  • Scotts hydroponics-focused Hawthorne division is a market leader and drives growth for all of Scotts.
  • Sales high: Hawthorne's sales nearly doubled in 2019, jumped 51% in just the last quarter, and are expected to grow another 45%-50% in 2020.

In the cannabis gold rush, you can be a miner or a shovel-maker... Cannabis producers are the "miners" who take the biggest risk: their success depends on striking gold (cannabis sales). Scotts makes the "shovels". They get a smaller upside with less risk, but enjoy more consistent success along the way — as long as there's still a rush.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Pupper: Sales at online pet supply darling Chewy soared 46% on lockdown pampering/adoptions, but shares fell because expectations were puppy-level enthusiastic.
  • Fleeting: Twitter releases "Fleets" in India. The 24-hour stories are also being tested in Italy and Brazil.
  • Espresso: Starbucks speeds up its timeline for expanding pick-up and mobile app orders — the corona-conomy cost Starbucks over $3B in sales last quarter.
  • Popcorn: AMC shares spike after the world's largest movie theater chain said it expects to fully reopen globally in July (CA restarts movie production tomorrow).
  • Zon'd: Amazon bans police use of its facial recognition tech for one year so it can reassess. That comes after IBM dropped the biz entirely.
  • Musky: Tesla shares hit an all-time high on word it'll bring the Tesla Semi commercial truck to “volume production.”

🍪 Thanks for Snacking with us! Want to share the Snacks? Invite your friends to sign up here.

Thursday

  • Weekly jobless claims report
  • Earnings expected from Lululemon and Adobe

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Uber, Tesla, Twitter, Amazon, Starbucks, and Lululemon

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tech

Gamers are still buying the Switch console in their millions, as its successor appears on the horizon

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Nintendo console sales

More importantly, however, Nintendo finally gave something of update on the Switch’s successor, which is now set to be announced in the coming fiscal year.

Although Switch sales have stayed surprisingly strong... they’re still falling, highlighting how difficult the business of game hardware can be. You need a new hit every 7-10 years, as sales typically peak 3-5 years after release before dropping sharply. That slowdown is beginning to flow through to Nintendo’s bottom line, with the company forecasting a ~40% annual drop in profit this year, per CNBC. The Switch sequel, whatever it looks like, has some big shoes to fill.

Nintendo console sales
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While Apple does have a more traditional ads business, there’s a huge “third-party licensing arrangement" it tucks into its ad revenue line. In 2022, Google paid Apple more than $20 billion to be the default search on iPhones and other Apple devices, according to antitrust documents.

Traditional ads make up about 6% of Apple's annual services revenue, while the Google deal brings in more than 20%.

While Apple does have a more traditional ads business, there’s a huge “third-party licensing arrangement" it tucks into its ad revenue line. In 2022, Google paid Apple more than $20 billion to be the default search on iPhones and other Apple devices, according to antitrust documents.

Traditional ads make up about 6% of Apple's annual services revenue, while the Google deal brings in more than 20%.

crypto

Robinhood Crypto joins other major exchanges as target of SEC Wells notice

Earlier today Robinhood Crypto said that it'd received a so-called Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission on May 4, suggesting the regulator may be prepping some sort of enforcement action against the retail trading giant. (Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media.)

The SEC has argued that many cryptocurrencies are securities, and should be regulated as such. Dan Gallagher, Robinhood’s chief legal, compliance, and corporate affairs officer, said in a statement that the company believes the assets listed on its crypto platform are not securities.

A Wells notice does not always precede an enforcement action, which Robinhood said in an 8-K could include an injunction, a cease-and desist order, or civil penalties (among other outcomes).

The market mostly brushed off the news, with Robinhood Markets, Inc. shares largely recovering after a brief morning slide.

The SEC has argued that many cryptocurrencies are securities, and should be regulated as such. Dan Gallagher, Robinhood’s chief legal, compliance, and corporate affairs officer, said in a statement that the company believes the assets listed on its crypto platform are not securities.

A Wells notice does not always precede an enforcement action, which Robinhood said in an 8-K could include an injunction, a cease-and desist order, or civil penalties (among other outcomes).

The market mostly brushed off the news, with Robinhood Markets, Inc. shares largely recovering after a brief morning slide.

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