Monday Oct.18, 2021

👤 LinkedIn leaves China

ETA for “Squid Game” Halloween costume: 37 weeks [Westend61 via Getty Images]
ETA for “Squid Game” Halloween costume: 37 weeks [Westend61 via Getty Images]

Hey Snackers,

Some like their kale shredded, and some like their art shredded: The famous Banksy painting that shredded itself after selling for $1.4M is now being sold for $25M — a new record for the artist. (BRB, ripping up our kindergarten masterpieces.)

US stocks ticked up slightly today, as investors balanced a strong kickoff to earnings season with inflation and supply-chain headaches. On the other side of the globe, China’s economy grew only 4.9% last quarter, a major slowdown from the previous quarter.

Wall

Blocked: LinkedIn becomes the last US social network to leave China as censorship intensifies

Thanks for connecting... Or not. Microsoft's LinkedIn is removing itself from China's network. The software giant is shutting down LinkedIn in China, citing the country's intensifying pressure to censor. FYI: China was LinkedIn’s third-largest market, with 50M+ users. Microsoft plans to launch a new China-specific version of LinkedIn this year, which won't include social features: no ability to share opinions, news articles, or "some personal news."

  • LinkedIn was the last major American social network still running in China, and it’s the biggest tech departure from China in years.
  • The networking site launched in China in 2014 with limited features in order to comply with China's strict internet laws. (Refresher: Microsoft bought LinkedIn for $26B in 2016.)
  • Last year, LinkedIn received 42 requests from Chinese authorities to take down content, and acted on 38. Then last month LinkedIn blocked the profiles of several US journalists in China.

Great walls of fire... China’s “Great Firewall” monitors and censors online. Facebook and Twitter have been blocked in China since 2009, and Google left in 2010 after declining to censor search results. This year China blocked the social audio app Clubhouse and the encrypted chat app Signal. Some savvy internet users can access Western sites through VPNs, but many don’t.

  • American tech companies aren't thrilled about being blocked from billions of potential users in China — even Zuck’s Mandarin couldn’t get FB unbanned.
  • But they also face criticism in the West if they censor content to appease the communist government. Cue: LinkedIn’s departure. A few other examples...
  • Google dropped the China-compliant search engine it was building, and Zoom faced backlash for shutting down a human-rights account to comply with Chinese law.

It's a tale of two internets... The only way to get social in China is to get censored by China. The Great Firewall has created two internets operated by the world’s superpowers. For the US, China’s digital wall blocks a major business opportunity. For China, it’s hurting interest from US investors and biz partners. As China increasingly cracks down on its own tech companies, US companies are becoming even more wary of making the move.

Zoom Out

Stories we’re watching...

Espresso machine delivery ETA… 124 days. Three (related) themes are defining earnings season for companies, from airlines to pizza chains. First, supply-chain snarls are curbing sales of retailers like Nike, which had to close some factories despite booming demand. Second, rising materials costs have led companies like Clorox to lower yearly profit forecasts. Third, labor shortages are compounding both those problems, with companies like FedEx blaming worker shortages for lower-than-expected sales. Expect these issues to continue into the holidays.

Catered bagels for the branch… Big banks reported tasty quarterly profits. Profits at consumer-focused Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citi boomed after the banks released billions in loan loss reserves set aside for defaults that never happened. A jump in credit-card spending helped Citi’s profits soar 48% from last year, while IPO and merger-palooza boosted profits at investment banking giants JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley. Trading activity is expected to slow, so we’ll see if investment banks can keep profits pumping.

Events

Coming up this week...

Cracked the dalgona candy... Whoops. Netflix gained a whopping 36M subscribers last year while you binged “Tiger King.” But that led to subscription saturation (#subscripturation), and slowing growth this year as non-couch activities return. Last quarter Netflix lost 400K subscribers in North America, which now makes up just 35% of customers. Investors want to know if Netflix’s new focus on foreign shows boosted subscribers when the Flix drops earnings on Thursday. FYI: Korean thriller "Squid Game" is Netflix’s best-performing show ever.

Self-driving PR... Tesla hit another delivery record last quarter, with 240K cars. In the previous quarter, Tesla raked in $12B in sales, nearly double from a year ago. For reference, Chinese EV-competitor Nio generated over $1B in Q2. Tesla recently launched full self-driving (think: reading stop signs and auto lane change) for select drivers, even though its Autopilot feature is in the hot seat with regulators. We’ll see if Tesla can keep up the record pace and manage its self-driving woes when it rolls up with earnings on Wednesday.

ICYMI

Last week's highlights...

  • Puff: Vuse’s tobacco-flavored e-cig became the first FDA-approved vape. Vuse Solo got the green light by doing what Juul didn’t.
  • Pill: Pharma giant Merck filed for FDA approval of its Covid pill. If approved, the first swallowable antiviral Covid drug could help cut hospitalization and death rates.
  • Brew: Starbucks turned 50. We’re looking at Starbs’ transformation from a small bean seller to a $131B giant that accounts for nearly half of US coffeehouses.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • ENTJ: Personality type could affect income level in a big way — on average, humble INFPs make $34K a year, while power-hungry ENTJs make $60K.
  • Sneaky: Club #Flation has a new member: shadowflation. To mask rising prices, businesses are quietly reducing services like bathroom cleaning.
  • Scream: As workers process pandemic anxieties, return-to-work stress dreams are on the rise. Think: presenting in your old conference room in your PJs.

This Week

  • Monday: Earnings expected from Albertsons
  • Tuesday: Earnings expected from Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, Netflix, Philip Morris, Ericsson, Halliburton, and United Airlines
  • Wednesday: Earnings expected from IBM, Tesla, Verizon, Abbott Labs, NextEra Energy, Anthem, and Biogen
  • Thursday: Jobless claims. Earnings expected from Intel, AT&T, Snap, Chipotle, Southwest Airlines, Tractor Supply, Quest Diagnostics, and Barclays
  • Friday: Earnings expected from Whirlpool, Honeywell, and American Express

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Microsoft, Netflix, Snap, Starbucks, Tesla, Snap, Google, and Chase

ID: 1879644

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Power

World out of balance: It costs the US 3¢ to make 1 penny

The cost of producing the US penny rose 13% in fiscal 2023 to 3.07 cents. Yes, that means that Uncle Sam loses more than two cents for every cent it produces. (And no, you can’t make it up on volume.)

For the record, that’s the 18th-straight year the penny’s face value has been below production costs, fueling calls for abolishing the lowest value denomination coin. Canada started to phase out the penny in 2013, joining Australia, Brazil, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, and Israel, according to Smithsonian Magazine.

3.07¢

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Business

Netflix is going to stop sharing subscriber numbers

After posting subscriber numbers that beat expectations today, Netflix says it’s no longer going to share those numbers starting in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a big deal since subscriber numbers have long been one of the main metrics that investors have looked at.

“In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential,” its shareholders letter read. “But now we’re generating very substantial profit and free cash flow.” The company said that it will focus on revenue and operating margin as its main financial metrics, while it will look at time spent on the platform to gauge customer satisfaction.

Another way to read this? They’ve hit market saturation and just aren’t going to be growing that much anymore, and they thought they’d end on a good note. Going forward they’re focusing on how to get more money out of the customers they do have.

They’re doing so by cracking down on password sharing and charging for extra members. They’re also pushing people to ad tiers, which are more profitable than non-ad tiers.

“Scaling ads to become a more meaningful contributor to our business in ‘25 and beyond,” Netflix said.

Netflix’s ads membership grew another 65% in Q1 over the previous one, after rising 70% the quarter before, and 40% of signups in ad markets continue to be for those ad plans.

Tech

Meta’s not telling where it got its AI training data

Today Meta unleashed its ChatGPT competitor, Meta AI, across its apps and as a standalone. The company boasts that it is running on its latest, greatest AI model, Llama 3, which was trained on “data of the highest quality”! A dataset seven times larger than Llama2! And includes 4 times more code!

What is that training data? There the company is less loquacious.

Meta said the 15 trillion tokens on which its trained came from “publicly available sources.” Which sources? Meta told The Verge’s Alex Heath that it didn’t include Meta user data, but didn’t give much more in the way of specifics.

It did mention that it includes AI-generated data, or synthetic data: “we used Llama 2 to generate the training data for the text-quality classifiers that are powering Llama 3.” There are plenty of known issues with synthetic or AI-created data, foremost of which is that it can exacerbate existing issues with AI, because it’s liable to spit out a more concentrated version of any garbage it is ingesting.

AI companies are turning to such data because there’s not enough good, public data on the entire internet to train their increasingly greedy AI models. (Meta had reportedly floated buying a publisher like Simon & Schuster to satisfy its insatiable data needs.)

Meta, of course, isn’t the only company that’s tight-lipped about where its AI data is coming from. In a now infamous interview with WSJ’s Johanna Stern, OpenAI’s chief technology officer Mira Murati was unable to answer questions about what Sora, OpenAI’s video generating app, was trained on. YouTube? Facebook? Instagram — she said she wasn’t sure.

What is that training data? There the company is less loquacious.

Meta said the 15 trillion tokens on which its trained came from “publicly available sources.” Which sources? Meta told The Verge’s Alex Heath that it didn’t include Meta user data, but didn’t give much more in the way of specifics.

It did mention that it includes AI-generated data, or synthetic data: “we used Llama 2 to generate the training data for the text-quality classifiers that are powering Llama 3.” There are plenty of known issues with synthetic or AI-created data, foremost of which is that it can exacerbate existing issues with AI, because it’s liable to spit out a more concentrated version of any garbage it is ingesting.

AI companies are turning to such data because there’s not enough good, public data on the entire internet to train their increasingly greedy AI models. (Meta had reportedly floated buying a publisher like Simon & Schuster to satisfy its insatiable data needs.)

Meta, of course, isn’t the only company that’s tight-lipped about where its AI data is coming from. In a now infamous interview with WSJ’s Johanna Stern, OpenAI’s chief technology officer Mira Murati was unable to answer questions about what Sora, OpenAI’s video generating app, was trained on. YouTube? Facebook? Instagram — she said she wasn’t sure.

Today’s earnings: Who’s making money edition

Here are some some notable numbers out this morning, as earnings season gathers steam. Thursday’s main event will be Netflix after the close of trading. (Keep an eye on its advertising business.) But until then...

7.13%

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage is back above 7%, according to weekly numbers from the Mortgage Bankers Association, the highest level in four months. High borrowing costs are creating havoc for would-be buyers, as affordability lingers at the low levels not seen consistently since the late 1980s.

Business

Amazon’s spy ops on rivals: shell companies, printed docs, and a fake Japanese streetwear brand

Some companies check out rivals’ websites, stores and public filings to stay abreast of the competition. Amazon made its own fake shell company and brands, transacted hundreds of thousands of dollars per year undercover on competitors’ platforms, and kept its intel operation a secret for nearly a decade even from others at Amazon, according to a fascinating investigation by the Wall Street Journal.

Working as a seller called Big River, a secret group of Amazon employees gained access to rival platforms, including Walmart, FedEx, and Alibaba. They used Big River email addresses and went to seller conferences as Big River employees. They even stayed hidden within Amazon itself. These employees would take screenshots of competitors’ systems that they would then show others at Amazon in person to avoid an email paper trail.

Perhaps most strange of all, the company created a fake Japanese streetwear brand called “Not So Ape” (clearly a play on A Bathing Ape) and continues to sell products from the brand on a Shopify store, presumably as an attempt to learn the inner workings of the shopping platform. Of course, copying is old hat for Amazon.

In meetings where they’d use this clandestine information to inform Amazon’s own business practices, the group resorted to literal paper. “[T]he team avoided distributing presentations electronically to Amazon executives. Instead, they printed the presentations and numbered the documents. Executives could look at the reports and take notes, but at the end of the meeting, team members collected the papers to ensure that they had all copies."

Working as a seller called Big River, a secret group of Amazon employees gained access to rival platforms, including Walmart, FedEx, and Alibaba. They used Big River email addresses and went to seller conferences as Big River employees. They even stayed hidden within Amazon itself. These employees would take screenshots of competitors’ systems that they would then show others at Amazon in person to avoid an email paper trail.

Perhaps most strange of all, the company created a fake Japanese streetwear brand called “Not So Ape” (clearly a play on A Bathing Ape) and continues to sell products from the brand on a Shopify store, presumably as an attempt to learn the inner workings of the shopping platform. Of course, copying is old hat for Amazon.

In meetings where they’d use this clandestine information to inform Amazon’s own business practices, the group resorted to literal paper. “[T]he team avoided distributing presentations electronically to Amazon executives. Instead, they printed the presentations and numbered the documents. Executives could look at the reports and take notes, but at the end of the meeting, team members collected the papers to ensure that they had all copies."

Crypto
Jack Morse
4/17/24

Worldcoin pivots to the blockchain… with a 'humans only' discount

Worldcoin, the “proof of personhood” crypto project launched by OpenAI’s Sam Altman, said it plans to launch its own ethereum layer-2 (L2) blockchain dubbed World Chain. The pitch: a blockchain where it’s both easier and cheaper for people to transact than bots.

Worldcoin has made waves for its iris-scanning metallic orb that promises a future where people can mathematically prove they’re real humans and not AI bots.

But it’s run into trouble: the orbs have been banned across Europe and Africa, and the associated WLD crypto token has plunged 50% over the past month.

For project insiders, who reportedly received a token allocation of 25% of supply, that could equal significant losses. 

Which is what may make World Chain attractive. Crypto exchange Coinbase launched its own L2, Base, last year. Base has since seen rapid user growth — activity that’s generated the exchange millions of dollars in weekly fees

Worldcoin could benefit from similar revenue if its L2 is adopted around the world.

But it’s run into trouble: the orbs have been banned across Europe and Africa, and the associated WLD crypto token has plunged 50% over the past month.

For project insiders, who reportedly received a token allocation of 25% of supply, that could equal significant losses. 

Which is what may make World Chain attractive. Crypto exchange Coinbase launched its own L2, Base, last year. Base has since seen rapid user growth — activity that’s generated the exchange millions of dollars in weekly fees

Worldcoin could benefit from similar revenue if its L2 is adopted around the world.