Friday Jun.11, 2021

🛍 "Buy now, pay later" billions

_The holo colleagues are coming [Paper Boat Creative/Stone via GettyImages]_
_The holo colleagues are coming [Paper Boat Creative/Stone via GettyImages]_

Hey Snackers,

A 16-year-old made $1.7M by reselling gaming consoles, patio heaters, dumbbells, and other scarce pandemic items. Unique bullet for the college app.

Stocks closed at a record yesterday, but investors still have inflation on the brain. Consumer prices spiked 5% in May from a year earlier, the highest annual inflation rate since 2008.

ASAP

"Buy now, pay later" is booming: Europe's biggest fintech Klarna hits a $46B valuation

Love the AllSaints biker jacket... don't love the $500 price tag. Klarna helps you sport that leather now, and pay for it later by spreading out payments as interest-free monthly installments. The Swedish company just raised $640M at a huge $46B valuation, becoming Earth's second most valuable private fintech after Stripe. Quick Klarna stats:

  • Numbers: 90M+ global active users, with 2M transactions per day.
  • $$$: Klarna posted record annual revenue of $1.2B last year on fees from merchants, but its loss grew.
  • Investors: Backers include Softbank, Snoop Dogg, and A$AP Rocky.

Speaking of ASAP... People want retail therapy immediately, but want to pay for it ASLP (as late as possible). Klarna is one of the buy-now-pay-later firms — like Affirm and Afterpay — that have been thriving since the pandemic began. PayPal also intro'd a BNPL checkout option last year. Money was tight, and spending moved online. It took Klarna eight years to hit a $1B valuation, but less than 12 months to go from $5.5B to $46B. It could go public this year.

BNPL eases the "mental accounting" burden... It can help rationalize large purchases by breaking them into smaller chunks in our minds. With a credit card, you have to fully pay off purchases at the end of the month to avoid interest. With BNPL, that $3K Peloton suddenly seems "affordable" at $50/month. Hence: merchants often see a boost in sales after offering Klarna's service. But that easy accounting could also come with financial consequences for some.

Holo

The holograms are coming: tech companies' big bet on the future of remote work

Can't skip the pants on this one... Holograms are getting closer to becoming a workday reality. Think: hologram colleagues giving speeches at all-hands (already happened), and team meetings where you can see everyone's shoes.

Do it for the gram... Holo style. As tech companies move to hybrid WFH models, they're investing in holo-tech to fight Zoom fatigue blues. But holograms aren't just for employees — they're a bet on the future of remote communications. In the last few months:

  • Google unveiled Project Starline, an effort to create a video-chat system that gives participants 3D depth (it looks like a trippy mirror... straight out of Black Mirror).
  • WeWork is partnering with a holo tech company to bring holograms to 100 WeWorks around the globe. The program kicks off this month.
  • Microsoft intro'd Microsoft Mesh, a "mixed-reality" service that displays life-size 3D avatars and content through smart glasses.

Holograms could be the second coming of Zoom... and companies could pay big bucks for them. WeWork is already charging $2.5K for holograms to be displayed on one standard HoloPod. Holograms could offer the best of both worlds in a hybrid future: the flexibility to WFH, paired with the bonding benefits of an in-office experience. But holo tech is also complex, expensive, and likely years away from being adopted. And pants are definitely required.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Pandemic: Covid deaths this year have already exceeded 2020’s toll, as cases surge in poor and developing countries.
  • Drop: GameStop shares plunged 27% yesterday after it declined to provide an earnings outlook and said it may sell 5M shares.
  • Vax: The US halted new shipments of J&J's Covid vaccine, as states deal with a surplus of expiring doses.
  • StarFi: SpaceX's satellite internet network Starlink is in talks with airlines to offer in-flight Wi-Fi.
  • Check: As much as half of US unemployment money doled out over the past year may have been stolen, according to some experts.

Friday

  • Consumer sentiment index. Earnings expected from Nathan's Famous

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Google and Microsoft

ID: 1682476

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Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/23/24

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.