Monday Jun.13, 2022

👀 TikTok’s takeover

Down the rabbit hole (ArtistGNDphotography/E+ via GettyImages)
Down the rabbit hole (ArtistGNDphotography/E+ via GettyImages)

Hey Snackers,

Some baby names have deep meanings, while others have deep cabinets: Ikea’s getting into the baby-naming game. The Swedish furniture icon wants to inspire parents with its name catalog of minimalist pieces. Welcome to the world, Ektorp sofa.

Inflation has the markets feeling red: both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq lost over 5% for the week as investors were shaken by May price data. Inflation reached its highest level in more than 40 years, with consumer prices soaring 8.6% from a year ago. Investors are worried the Fed will raise rates more aggressively to fight sticky #flation.

Toked

TikTok’s time bomb: how the app wields massive influence on America’s attention — and potentially its direction

So many Tok clones... No one’s safe from vertical videos. US social giants have desperately tried to replicate the success of TikTok, the short-video app that’s captured Gen Z's consciousness (call it "GenT"). One of the biggest threats to Meta, Google, Snap, and Twitter isn't slowing social usership in general — it’s slowing usership because of TikTok.

  • 44 mins/day: Last year people spent more time on TikTok than on Facebook. The Tok may’ve even surpassed time spent on Insta and YouTube worldwide.
  • 1.6B brains: TikTok has more monthly users than Twitter, Snap, and LinkedIn combined.
  • The news: TikTok just added new screentime controls to make its app seem less intensely addictive (think: break reminders).
  • The reality: It likely won't help. The app’s already shortened kids’ attention spans to where many can't even sit through a movie or a class.

Dancing to the (algo)rhythm... To curate your feed, TikTok's mysterious algorithm figures out what engages you. And while that’s mostly lip-syncs, cat pranks, and makeup hacks, there's a dark side to TikTok, which is owned by Chinese tech giant ByteDance — which China’s gov’t owns a stake in.

  • Dangerous content: In addition to life-threatening viral challenges (like holding your breath until you faint or OD'ing on Benadryl), TikTok's algo has sent teens down rabbit holes promoting eating disorders, porn sites, and gun violence.
  • Misinfo: Many get their news on TikTok, but no one really knows how info (and misinfo) spreads there. Recently TikTok’s been flooded with videos pushing Russia's narrative on the Ukraine war — which China supports.
  • Censorship: TikTok has cracked down on topics at China’s behest (think: the Uyghur crisis). Any interference from the Chinese government could wreak havoc on US elections and an already divided American democracy.

Attention = influence… We’re not talking fitness gurus. Commanding attention means directing attention, and TikTok’s captured the mind of a generation. The concern of the (now dead) Tik Tok-ban saga was that ByteDance could pass US data to China. But the real concern is likely TikTok’s influence to direct attention, and the obscurity around who’s really pulling the strings.

Zoom Out

Stories we’re watching...

Gun giants in the spotlight… As US gun violence soars, weapons makers are being sued more frequently. Families of Sandy Hook victims settled with Remington for $73M earlier this year, and Glock was recently sued over irresponsible marketing. Victims are using a strategy that won settlements from tobacco giant Philip Morris and opioid maker Purdue Pharma. Meanwhile, Congress is debating bills that would make it harder to buy guns (including raising the minimum purchase age), which could hit gun makers’ sales, though they’re unlikely to pass.

BYOP... Bring your own peanuts. Spirit’s takeover drama appears to be approaching its climax. Shareholders have 17 days to decide whether the budget carrier’s new home will be with Frontier or JetBlue (or neither). Last week JB doubled the fee it would pay Spirit shareholders if the deal falls through for antitrust reasons — topping Frontier’s $250M offer by $100M. A pilot shortage and high fuel costs are making it harder for airlines to meet demand. A Spirit-quisition would give the new mega-carrier more seats, routes, and workers.

Events

Coming up this week...

Corporate’s got work to do… Monday’ll be the first time markets close for Juneteenth, the new federal holiday celebrating the end of US slavery. After George Floyd’s murder two years ago, 271 corporations pledged $67B to improve racial equity — but less than $1B had been distributed by the start of ’22. Procter & Gamble, Sephora, and others have fallen short of their targets to hire more Black workers and partner with more Black-owned brands. But others, like Yelp and Microsoft, hit their year-one goals of teaming up with Black-owned businesses.

The view from above... not talking penthouses. Satellite imagery is a hot commodity as companies and governments track everything from crop growth to shipping patterns (because: supply crisis). Planet Labs, the largest owner of low Earth orbit satellites (LEOS), saw its revenue surge to a record $37M last quarter. (We’ll see its latest numbers when it reports Tuesday.) While Planet is worth just $1B, growing demand for satellite imagery and internet (think: SpaceX’s StarLink) could help the LEO sector grow in the next decade.

ICYMI

Last week's highlights...

  • Fruit: It’s getting harder to leave Apple’s “walled garden”: it rolled out a buy now, pay later service and password authenticator at its annual conference, threatening companies like Affirm and LastPass.
  • Cluck: Chicken prices have gone berserk after a combo of disasters, with boneless breast up 68%). While Americans are still splurging on the #1 meat, some countries are being forced to cut back.
  • Hole: The PGA suspended 17 golfers, including Phil Mickelson, for competing in the Saudi-funded LIV tournament. Some accused the country of using golf to boost its image, given its dismal human-rights record.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Hearing: Nearly 20M people watched the first House committee investigation of the January 6 attack on the US Capitol — more than double the number who watched Donald Trump’s 2020 impeachment trial.
  • WeGreen: Adam Neumann’s controversial “Goddess Nature Token” logs an org’s carbon offset in the blockchain. Proponents say carbon credits are “a perfect use-case for Web3,” but others aren’t convinced.
  • Swipe: Spenders racked up a record $841B of credit-card debt last quarter, as persistently high prices ate into savings. It was a reversal from the pandemic, when stimmy checks helped many pay down IOUs.

This Week

  • Monday: Earnings expected from Braze
  • Tuesday: Earnings expected from Core & Main, Sprinklr, and Planet Labs
  • Wednesday: Latest interest-rate decision from the Fed. Earnings expected from Lennar, and John Wiley & Sons
  • Thursday: Jobless claims. Golf’s US Open begins. Earnings expected from Adobe, Kroger, and Smith & Wesson
  • Friday: National Apple Strudel Day
  • The weekend: Juneteenth, which commemorates the end of slavery in the US, is on Sunday. Father’s Day is also on Sunday

Authors of this Snacks own: shares of Apple, Google, Microsoft, Twitter, and Snap

ID: 2241624

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Latest Stories

Business

No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

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Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

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Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales