Sink

Carnival is selling its own stock at the worst possible time (but it's desperate)

Snacks / Tuesday, September 15, 2020
_The one guy on Carnival's one (and only) cruise_
_The one guy on Carnival's one (and only) cruise_

You know things are bad when... Business Insider comes out with an article titled: "You can buy a retired Carnival cruise ship and have it all to yourself." Since Carnival anchored a record $4.4B quarterly loss back in June, the tide hasn't turned much for the world's largest cruise company:

  • Carnival lost $2.9B last quarter and it literally only has 1 ship sailing right now (in Italy). Womp.
  • Yesterday, Carnival announced a $1B stock sale to raise money at the worst possible time. Carnival shares sank 11% on the news. Womp womp.

Endless shrimp cocktails never end well... Carnival's stock sale didn't either. But Carnival is desperate: it's losing $770M a month and only has $8B in cash left. US cruises aren't expected to resume until the end of October (ambitious) and virus fears are still high. Desperate times call for desperate cash-raising measures:

  • Selling at a low: Carnival stock is down ~70% this year, so it's selling stock at a major low point. Compare that to Tesla, which is capitalizing on record high stock prices by selling $5B worth of new shares.
  • Diluting: By issuing new shares, Carnival is diluting the value of its existing ones. Since more shares are being added, Carnival stockholders will own less of the overall company.

Markets reacted rationally... They do that sometimes. Carnival is selling $1B worth of new stock, which represented ~7% of its market value before the announcement. The stock dropped 8% on Tuesday morning after the announcement — that's very close to the percentage Carnival got diluted by. In this case, investors' reaction made total sense.

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