Tuesday Nov.16, 2021

🎶 T Swift’s “Red” rebellion

“Trouble, trouble, trouble” for record labels [Catherine Falls Commercial/Moment via Getty Images]
“Trouble, trouble, trouble” for record labels [Catherine Falls Commercial/Moment via Getty Images]

Hey Snackers,

Big Gulp moment: A customer is suing 7-Eleven, alleging that its “Wasabi Delight Flavored Snack Mix” contains zero wasabi. Almost as disappointing as when the Coke Slurpee machine is broken.

Stocks jumped today after strong October retail sales numbers and earnings beats from Home Depot and Walmart, which signal a holiday spending boom.

Red

T Swift’s rerecording crusade paves the way for artists, but threatens major labels

"You belong with me"... Taylor Swift to her own music. This weekend, T Swift dropped “Red (Taylor’s Version),” a rerecorded album of her hit 2012 breakup anthems, plus never-released tracks. Some background: Taylor doesn't own the "masters" (aka: original recordings) from her first six albums. When she was 15, those were signed over to record label Big Machine, later sold to Scooter Braun (Kanye’s ex-manager).

  • In 2018, Taylor signed a new deal with Universal Music, which gave her ownership of her new masters. But she couldn’t buy back her first six albums.
  • Taylor has bad blood with Braun. Even more, she’s passionate about artists owning their music. So she started rerecording.
  • Last year, private-equity fund Shamrock paid $300M for Taylor's old tunes, but Braun still got a cut of the deal. Then Taylor announced she would rerecord all the albums they’d bought.

I knew you were trouble... Many fans are choosing Taylor's version over the OGs, which could undercut earnings for Shamrock. Earlier this year, Taylor released a rerecorded version of her album "Fearless.” It's racked up 3X as many streams as the 2008 original. The “Red” rerecording is also outperforming the OG, and was #1 this week on Spotify and Apple.

  • Taylor is profiting: As the owner, Taylor is scoring lucrative licensing deals for her music (think: movies, ads, TikToks).
  • She’s also getting paid more streaming $$, which makes up the bulk of revenue for labels like Universal, Warner, and Sony. Artists can keep more than 80% of streaming revenue for masters they own, compared to 20% if the label owns them.
  • Ctrl + Swift: Now Universal, the world’s largest label, is scrambling to protect its rights with other artists who might want to rerecord too.

The "T Swift Clause" is a threat to labels… because it lets artists keep more control and more money. That’s why Universal is reportedly doubling the amount of time that artists are restricted from rerecording. But as streaming platforms and social apps make it easier for artists to distribute music, leverage is shifting in creators’ favor. Labels including Universal are also making concessions, like increasing royalty payments.

Kondo

Shell ditches its Dutch roots to simplify its biz as it transitions to cleaner energy

A little less Royal, much less Dutch… Yesterday, oil titan Royal Dutch Shell said it planned to move its HQ from the Netherlands to the UK and to shorten its name to Shell, ditching “Dutch” after 114 years. Dutch officials were “unpleasantly surprised,” but investors seemed pleased: Shares jumped 3% yesterday on the news.

  • Marie Kondo meets big oil: Shell’s move will simplify its dual share structure (it now has A and B shares) and make it easier to pay taxes, buy back shares, and attract investors.
  • Cleaning up: The reorg could also make it easier for Shell to sell “dirty” business lines and invest in greener ones, though Shell said it had no active plans to split.

A Shell of its former self… Shell’s under pressure from investors and courts to transition to renewable energy. Last summer Dutch courts ordered Shell to reduce emissions. Last month activist investor Third Point asked Shell to split its oil and renewable energy businesses to facilitate greener investment. Shell’s not the only oil bigshot feeling pressure:

Exxon is spending $1B+/year to develop emissions-reducing tech after activist investors joined its board. BP spends $5B/year to develop low-emissions fuel alternatives. 450 finance firms including JPMorgan Chase, Citi, and BlackRock committed to hitting net-zero emissions in their investments by 2050 at the UN climate summit last week.

Corporate transitions can be messy… and sometimes it helps to draw cleaner lines. Shell’s reorg could make it easier for backers to invest in its transition to renewables, even if Shell hasn’t committed to splitting. As shareholders demand increasingly specific ways to invest, some companies have started splitting up to attract focused funding. Just last week: General Electric, Johnson & Johnson, and Toshiba announced plans to split into smaller companies to spur more targeted investment.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Heads: Biden held a virtual meeting with Chinese President Xi last night in an effort to ease tensions on issues from nuclear proliferation to Covid and climate.
  • Nuggies: Tyson’s sales jumped 12% last quarter after the meat giant majorly hiked prices for its beef, chicken, and pork products, with the company citing rising costs.
  • Cardi: Warner Music, which represents stars like Cardi B and Ed Sheeran, saw sales jump 22% last quarter, thanks partly to tunes on TikTok and Peloton.
  • Sued: Ohio officials, seeking $100B+ in damages, sued Facebook parent Meta, alleging it misled the public about its efforts to protect kids.
  • Settled: Amazon reached a settlement with California after a lawsuit alleged it concealed worker Covid cases from health agencies and employees.
  • Gaffe: Tesla shares fell 2% yesterday after CEO Elon Musk sold $7B worth of shares last week and ridiculed Bernie Sanders over the weekend.

Tuesday

  • October retail sales
  • Earnings expected from Walmart, Home Depot, Aramark, Dolby Labs, and Advance Auto Parts

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Apple, Spotify, Warner Music, Tesla, Amazon, and Walmart

ID: 1923304

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Latest Stories

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

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Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

Job switchers and stayers

The FTC is banning non-compete clauses

Why that might make job switching even more lucrative

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.