Thursday Oct.21, 2021

⚽️ FIFA might break up with EA

A FIFA by any other name would play as sweet [Dmytro Aksonov/E+ via Getty Images]
A FIFA by any other name would play as sweet [Dmytro Aksonov/E+ via Getty Images]

Hey Snackers,

Facebook reportedly plans to change its name to reflect its growing focus on the metaverse. We might soon be saying, “She didn’t accept my Horizon friend request.” Tweet us your suggestions for Facebook’s new name @RobinhoodSnacks.

The market-tracking S&P 500 index closed at a fresh record today, as investors digested another round of earnings. Snap stock plunged 25% after quarterly sales missed expectations, while WeWork shares jumped on their first day of trading — two years after its botched IPO.

Brows(e)

Ulta Beauty wants to steal TikTok’s and Insta's thunder with "the digital store of the future"

Return of the "try me" moisturizers... Ulta is Sephora's less swanky rival, with 1.3K US stores compared to Sephora’s 2.7K global stores. Ulta shares have dropped 13% since its investor day on Tuesday. Its three-year growth outlook missed expectations, though it expects to outpace the rest of the beauty industry.

  • Beauty sales plunged last year, as face masks replaced lip gloss and Zoom face replaced foundation. Meanwhile, consumers became even more digitally savvy. Now...
  • Beauty is glowing up, as we refresh our makeup bags instead of refreshing Netflix. Last quarter, Ulta's sales surged 56% from 2020, surpassing pre-pandemic levels.

TikTok blush... As the shift to digital continues, Ulta is following Sephora’s lead and rolling out same-day delivery. But IRL browsing is key, too: Ulta customers who shop both online and in stores typically spend 3X more than online-only shoppers. So Ulta plans to open 50 new stores a year, and have 100 mini shops inside Target this year. But the juiciest update from Ulta:

  • “Digital store of the future”: Ulta just invested in AI company Adeptmind, which aims to power a new personalized search engine for a futuristic shopping experience.
  • Think: Tailored recs and content-driven product discovery on Ulta’s platforms. The goal: to "seamlessly merge content with commerce.” About that...
  • Ulta’s launching a media platform that partners can use to advertise on Ulta’s site and app. A new editorial team will create “culturally relevant” content, including beauty tips.

Being a social hub > using a social hub... Product discovery and spending have shifted to TikTok and Insta. But instead of only advertising on social platforms, Ulta wants to create its own social commerce hub. That way Ulta — not Insta — will gain valuable browsing data that it can use to sell targeted ads to brand partners. By making its digital sales channels more like content-focused social apps, Ulta could unlock a big new revenue stream.

Breakup

FIFA and EA might break up after 28 years — but EA could keep the die-hard fans

It’s getting Messi… A breakup between a soccer power couple could be coming. Video-game giant Electronic Arts (EA) and soccer org FIFA have released a new FIFA game together for 28 years, making FIFA the best-selling sports-game franchise ever. Fans love that FIFA lets them play with friends while rooting for their favorite teams. But EA is reportedly considering walking out on its longtime teammate.

Trouble in the FIFA-verse… EA has made $20B+ from the FIFA franchise over the past 30 years or so, and FIFA currently makes $150M in yearly licensing fees from EA. But their 10-year contract ends after next year’s World Cup in Qatar, and they can’t agree on a new deal. Here’s why:

  • Putting the “fee” in FIFA: FIFA wants to double the yearly licensing fee it charges EA to use its name.
  • Open relationship: EA wants exclusive rights to develop FIFA extensions like arena gaming tourneys and NFTs, but FIFA wants to limit EA and launch its own ventures.
  • Uneven split: FIFA, a nonprofit, made more than half its nearly $270M in revenue last year from its EA deal. But EA, which is valued at $40B, made $5.5B last year distributing several hit games like Madden, The Sims, and Apex Legends.
  • New partners: EA has already lined up 300+ partners from national leagues to players’ unions, and filed to trademark “EA Sports FC.” Now, FIFA could start looking for a new gaming partner like Epic Games or Activision Blizzard.

You need the name to join the game… But you only need loyal fans to keep playing. EA leveraged FIFA’s brand to generate buzz and build a huge global fan base: More than 31M people have played FIFA 21 since it launched last fall. But EA’s games themselves are what keep fans plugged in. Most sports fans don’t abandon their teams when they trade star players; EA hopes customers show similar loyalty.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Mixer: The FDA authorized Moderna and J&J boosters and mix-and-match jabs from different drug makers, just weeks after giving Pfizer the green light.
  • Charged: Tesla posted record sales and profits last quarter despite production slowdowns related to chip shortages and port blockages.
  • Pinned: PayPal is reportedly in late-stage talks to acquire Pinterest for about $39B, in a bold bid to compete with e-commerce-forward rivals like Shopify.
  • Found: Alibaba stock jumped this week after founder Jack Ma went on his first foreign trip since last November, and he seems to be alive and well.
  • Pantry: Snack giant Nestlé raised its annual forecast after reporting stronger-than-expected sales, as pandemic staples like instant coffee and pet food keep thriving.
  • Bail: Exxon board members are reportedly considering plans to abandon some of the oil and gas giant’s biggest projects ahead of a company vote.

Thursday

  • Jobless claims
  • Earnings expected from: Snap, Intel, AT&T, Chipotle, Southwest Airlines, Tractor Supply, Quest Diagnostics, and Barclays

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Netflix, Tesla, Moderna, and Snap

ID: 1886445

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The long, brutal winter is over for the IPO market

IPOs hit record highs in 2021 then hit the brakes, slowing down massively through 2023. But following last month’s successful public debuts of AI startup Astera Labs and social platform Reddit, a flurry of tech companies filed their S-1s.

Two highly-hyped startups are expected to hit public markets as soon as this week. Microsoft-backed data-security software co Rubrik is said to be looking to raise $700M and its AI adjacency adds to its investor appeal, though the company is not profitable. Rubrik’s sales pitch claims that advancements in AI could make its cybersecurity software more necessary and already works with Oracle and Amazon.

The other company expected to IPO this week is a profitable unicorn: Ibotta, a platform that gives users cash back and other rewards for online purchases. The Walmart-funded startup said it turned a profit of $38M last year and is targeting a $2.5B valuation when it goes public. 

Ibotta and Rubrik could warm markets up for a hot IPO summer: event ticket marketplace StubHub is reportedly looking to go public this summer at a whopping $16.5B valuation.

Dr. Martens gets the boot from traders

Shares of Dr. Martens fell 30% and hit an all-time low after the British boot brand warned that sales were heading for a slowdown. The stock was also temporarily halted for trading on the London Stock Exchange.

Dr. Martens has been sounding the alarm on profits since early last year, as US shoppers (its top market) cut back on the $150 chunky leather stompers.

Doc's expects US wholesale revenue to drop double-digits next year as fall and winter orders — peak boot season — come in light. Meanwhile, CEO Kenny Wilson announced that he would step down step down in March 2025.

Doc's expects US wholesale revenue to drop double-digits next year as fall and winter orders — peak boot season — come in light. Meanwhile, CEO Kenny Wilson announced that he would step down step down in March 2025.

Housing starts worse than the late 1990s

In theory, high housing prices in the US should be stimulating a ton of new home construction. But it ain’t happening. In fact, just released March numbers showed the biggest monthly drop since Covid hit in 2020.

What’s the deal? Well, housing is a pretty interest-rate sensitive industry. The high rates the Fed put in place to clamp down on inflation have driven up mortgage rates. Housing is also hard to build, with some arguing that exclusionary zoning is a big part of the problem.

The lack of supply, high mortgage costs, and price spike that occurred during the pandemic means housing is the most unaffordable it’s been in decades.

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Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia

Department of Justice investigating Live Nation and Ticketmaster

Taylor Swift fans have beef with Ticketmaster-owner Live Nation, and now the US government does, too: The Justice Department is reportedly getting ready to slap America's largest concert promoter with an antitrust suit.

Lawmakers and regulators have accused Live Nation of outrageously high ticket prices, iffy customer service, and anticompetitive practices.

The DOJ's investigation into the concert colossus heated up in November 2022, when Ticketmaster crashed after T. Swift fans tried to snap up "Eras" tour tickets.

The DOJ's investigation into the concert colossus heated up in November 2022, when Ticketmaster crashed after T. Swift fans tried to snap up "Eras" tour tickets.

Adidas inexplicably decides 2024 is the right time to jump back on NFTs

Adidas is reportedly teaming up with Stepn, a web3 company that promised to reward users who engaged in physical activity like walking and running. The collab, announced this morning by Stepn, kicks off with the release of 1K Adidas-styled NFT sneakers. Current price: roughly $2,500 a pop.

Stepn made waves back in 2022 as a pioneer of “move-to-earn” games.

The solana-based app rewarded active users with tokens — though they’d have to have purchased a pair of NFT sneakers first. Some early adopters bragged about making hundreds of dollars a day by walking, but critics said the game relied on Ponzi-scheme like economics. 

The Stepn-Adidas “phygital” sneakers release hits as the NFT market suffers a 30-day period that’s seen trading volumes fall nearly 40%.

The solana-based app rewarded active users with tokens — though they’d have to have purchased a pair of NFT sneakers first. Some early adopters bragged about making hundreds of dollars a day by walking, but critics said the game relied on Ponzi-scheme like economics. 

The Stepn-Adidas “phygital” sneakers release hits as the NFT market suffers a 30-day period that’s seen trading volumes fall nearly 40%.

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Iran, oil, high rates are a bummer

At the risk of stating the obvious, the market has really started struggling. Last week’s hot inflation report, and the spike in interest rates it generated, seemed to get the sell-off rolling. Military strikes between Israel and Iran haven’t helped matters, as they’ve kept oil prices elevated. The market hates it, given the role oil plays keeping inflation high — and the Fed potentially on hold. The S&P’s 1.2% decline Monday pushed the index below its 50-day moving average, confirming the loss of momentum.

We’ve tried nothing and we’re all out of ideas

Forget driving away advertisers and charging for blue checks only to give them out for free, Elon Musk has other ideas to not make money on Twitter, aka X. Today he floated charging new users a “small fee” to deal with the platform’s seemingly intractable bot problem.

Old heads might remember that way back in 2022, ahead of buying Twitter, the billionaire had pledged to “defeat the spam bots or die trying.” Guess we’re in the “die trying” era.

Which states have the highest tax rates?

Millions of people will be spending today frantically preparing to meet tonight’s 11:59 pm deadline. Indeed, those in the throes of filing can delight in the IRS’s promotion of “improved customer service”, as the ~100m who’ve already sent returns can enjoy less procedural promos from the likes of Krispy Kreme.

But if lower taxes are a priority for you: where should you move?

The biggest fund in the world is going absolutely nowhere near private equity

The Norwegian government announced on Friday that Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), the nation's $1.6T sovereign wealth fund, should not add private equity investments to its portfolio, rejecting the fund management's recommendation to add private equity allocation in November 2023.

The last few years have seen an uptick of institutional investors, such as pensions and endowments, increasing their exposure to PE. However, high fees and difficulty tracking investment performance have made the Norwegian government wary of investing in the field.

With private equity funds already struggling to return capital to their investors during a period of record-high inflows, restraint by the Norwegian government may prove to be a shrewd decision.

Bain Projections
Source: Bain Capital

The last few years have seen an uptick of institutional investors, such as pensions and endowments, increasing their exposure to PE. However, high fees and difficulty tracking investment performance have made the Norwegian government wary of investing in the field.

With private equity funds already struggling to return capital to their investors during a period of record-high inflows, restraint by the Norwegian government may prove to be a shrewd decision.

Bain Projections
Source: Bain Capital
2024-04-15-apple-samsung-site

Samsung has dethroned Apple as the top smartphone seller... again

Adobe is paying $3 a minute for AI-training video of people touching things

Adobe is pushing its way into the growing business of generative AI video, joining OpenAI’s Sora and Google’s Imagen 2.

The new tools will roll out this year, according to Adobe.

In contrast to its web-scraping rivals, Bloomberg reported that Adobe is paying videographers up to $120 for stock footage used to train the model.

High-priority subjects include: footage of people showing emotions, clips of people touching things, and anatomy shots of eyes, hands, and feet.  

AI companies are growing increasingly wary of copyright lawsuits, as giants like YouTube threaten possible litigation if AI is trained on their videos. Plus: AI is learning so fast that the data used to train it could be completely tapped by 2026.

High-priority subjects include: footage of people showing emotions, clips of people touching things, and anatomy shots of eyes, hands, and feet.  

AI companies are growing increasingly wary of copyright lawsuits, as giants like YouTube threaten possible litigation if AI is trained on their videos. Plus: AI is learning so fast that the data used to train it could be completely tapped by 2026.