Wednesday Oct.27, 2021

👾 FB’s metaverse results

Speeding into the metaverse [THEPALMER/E+ via Getty Images]
Speeding into the metaverse [THEPALMER/E+ via Getty Images]

Hey Snackers,

What says Patagonia bro more than a quarter-zip sweater? Patagonia’s new organic wines. Notes of apple and quince is the new lightweight fleece.

Stocks slipped from record highs today, even after Coke and McDonald’s posted strong earnings due to higher prices. Shares of GM, Visa, and Twitter all sank on concerns over slowing growth.

Payday

Spotify makes a move with merch and video to be the one-stop hub for artists

Just preordered Adele on vinyl… From new album launches to pod subscriptions, Spotify wants to be the hub for creators. It unveiled two creator tools last week, partnering with Shopify to let musicians add merch to their profiles and announcing plans to expand video podcasting. The deets:

  • Virtual merch table: Spotify integrated with Shopify to let artists promote and sell merch in the app, like this $30 tie-dye Remi Wolf hat.
  • Watchable pods: Spotify plans to expand the in-app video podcasts it tested last summer to give creators more ways to reach fans and earn subscription $$. Fans can already watch Joe Rogan’s pod.

There’s an app for that... Spotify gives artists ways to profit from their music. But there’s no central hub for creators to monetize their entire brand: Many artists use Shopify to sell merch, Substack to launch newsletters, and Patreon to fundraise. So Spotify is investing in new features to be a one-stop-shop where artists drop new music, sell merch, and engage with fans.

  • Plugged in: Last year Spotify gave creators tools to raise money through Cash App, GoFundMe, and PayPal, and host virtual events on Twitch, Instagram, and YouTube.
  • Paywalled: In April, Spotify launched a paid subscription where participating creators received 100% of revenue for the next two years.
  • Fans First: In June, Spotify relaunched a Substack-style email tool that lets artists promote offers like concert presales.

Spotify wants to be the public square for creators… With the creator economy valued at $100B+, Twitter, YouTube, TikTok, and Snap are building tools to attract exclusive content. The company that ultimately wins over creators may be the one with the best tools and biggest user base. Spotify has 165M paying listeners — more than Apple and Amazon combined. Now it’s focused on giving creators more ways to get paid.

Zucker-verse

Facebook looks to make its metaverse future a reality as ad growth winds down

Ask app not to track? Facebook missed quarterly sales expectations as ad-revenue growth slowed big-time from the previous quarter (33% growth vs. 56%). FB blamed Apple’s iOS update, which lets users opt out of ad tracking — and warned it could continue hurting sales. BTW: Snap blamed its earnings miss on the iOS change too. (Twitter didn’t feel a hit.) But the real highlight of FB’s results was the metaverse.

BRB, I’m inside the internet… FB is doubling down on its vision of an immersive digital future. FB wants to be a metaverse company — not a social company (it’s even planning a meta-focused name change). Instead of engaging with just a screen, the metaverse is an internet you can be inside of. Think: going to a VR concert with friends' avatars, shopping at VR stores, working in a virtual office, and even owning VR real estate. Facebook’s meta moves:

  • In 2014, FB bought VR headset company Oculus, which will be a key entry point into its metaverse. Think: Facebook Horizon, a recently launched VR gaming world.
  • In August, Facebook launched a Sims-like VR office, which can be accessed free... with a $300 pair of Oculus Quest 2 headsets.
  • In September, Facebook unveiled its first AR smart glasses, designed by Ray-Ban.
  • Now, FB will start reporting financial results from Facebook Reality Labs, which houses its VR and AR products.

FB’s rebrand is about self-reliance… FB expects its investment in the metaverse to reduce its total operating profit by a whopping $10B this year. But that could be worth it if it means Facebook won’t have to be as dependent on other companies to make $$$. Ad sales currently make up 97% of FB’s total — and rely on your scrolling on Apple and Google phones. But the metaverse could be a hub for virtual interaction and commerce, from games and ticket sales to hangouts, all powered by Facebook.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Kids: An FDA advisory panel recommended low-dose Pfizer shots for kids between ages 5 and 11. The jabs are set to start as soon as next week pending final approval.
  • Search: Google posted its third straight quarter of record profit after beating ad-sales expectations. FYI: It sells more e-ads than any other company.
  • Deflect: YouTube, Snap, and TikTok representatives testified before Congress, making the case that they care more about safety than Facebook.
  • Sneeze: Shares of Mucinex-maker Reckitt Benckiser jumped 6% after the drugmaker said the return of cold and flu season boosted sales.
  • Office: As the hybrid/remote work life continues, Microsoft beat quarterly earnings expectations on soaring demand for its cloud services.
  • IOU: Modern Land defaulted on a $250M bond payment, becoming the latest of several Chinese real-estate giants to default on debts (cough, Evergrande).

Wednesday

  • Earnings expected from: Coca-Cola, McDonald's, Spotify, Boeing, GlaxoSmithKline, GM, Twilio, Ford, eBay, and Kraft Heinz

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: GM, Google, Spotify, Snap, Shopify, and Amazon

ID: 1894625

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Latest Stories

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/23/24

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.