Wednesday Oct.21, 2020

🌎 Google's big monopoly lawsuit

_When you accidentally set off the Code Red_
_When you accidentally set off the Code Red_

Hey Snackers,

The next viral TikTok stars could be astronauts: NASA is launching a 4G mobile network on the moon. A moonwalk dance video counts as "important data," right?

Stocks jumped yesterday as House Speaker Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin made some progress on stimulus talks, though big differences remain.

Search

Google gets hit with the biggest tech anti-monopoly lawsuit since the '90s

Googling Google... That's concerning. The Justice Department filed an antitrust lawsuit against Google yesterday, more than a year after its investigation started. The DoJ claims Google uses anti-competitive tactics to keep its search biz monopoly. It's the biggest US legal challenge to a tech company's reign since Microsoft got served in 1998.

  • Google controls 90% of global search and 92% of smartphone search in the US, research finds. That's partly thanks to key deals with phone-makers.
  • Android: Google has agreements to make sure its preloaded search app can’t be deleted from phones running its Android OS.
  • Apple: Google pays Apple ~$10B a year to feed it search traffic and make itself the default on Safari.

Anything but Bing... Dominating market share isn't illegal — Google can't be punished for its success. Buuut: exclusionary moves that shut out competitors are illegal. That's why the lawsuit focuses on Google's exclusive deals with Apple. Losing that search pipeline would be so crushing that Googlers referred to it as "Code Red." If Google loses the suit, it could be forced to end deals or break up parts of its biz.

Google's monopoly doesn't hurt us... At least, not as clearly as traditional monopolies. The DoJ says Google's anticompetitiveness means less choice/innovation for consumers, and pricier ads for companies. Google's case: people choose to use its tools, from Search to YouTube to Gmail, for the value they provide — plus, Google's services are mostly free. That undercuts typical antitrust arguments anchored on price. The harm to consumers isn't as obvious.

Scrub

P&G sees its shiniest growth in 15 years thanks to the "Hygiene Revolution"

Charmin, Crest, Vicks, and Tide... Your pandemic grocery list is also Procter & Gamble's pandemic winners list. The consumer goods giant had its biggest quarterly global sales increase in 15 years as we compulsively cleaned our homes (and ourselves).

  • Sales jumped 9%, and profit soared 20% compared to last year.
  • That's impressive growth for a 182-year-old company whose most exciting product is scented laundry beads.

It's the Hygiene Revolution... The pandemic has caused us to splurge on brand-name hygiene products instead of $15 craft cocktails and 2 a.m. Uber rides. People are spending more time at home, and they also have more money to spend on their home.

  • P&G's home-care sales jumped 30%, outsparkling every other unit. Swiffer, Febreze, and Mr. Clean were the sanitized stars of the earnings.
  • Lysol-maker Reckitt Benckiser just had its biggest quarterly sales growth ever thanks to its hygiene unit. It's also doing "hygiene consulting" for companies like Delta and Airbnb.

The hygiene bar has been (permanently) raised... Hygiene isn’t just a corona-trend like sourdough starters and tie dye. Early in the pandemic, cleaning sales gains were driven by hoarding and shortages. But recent demand appears to be fueled by our sustained obsession with sanitizing — and big-brand names are benefiting over generics. P&G raised its financial forecast for the quarter since it's expecting growth to get shinier.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Unchill: Netflix missed on earnings and new subscribers as growth slowed, adding just 2.2M subs last quarter vs. 10M in the one before.
  • Snapback: Snap stock soared on surprisingly strong 52% sales growth and 249M daily users.
  • Ride: Uber says it might majorly scale back or even end its ride service in California if Prop 22 doesn't pass on election day.
  • Malled: JCPenney expects to come out of bankruptcy before the holidays. It could sell itself to mall owner Simon Property.
  • Joggers: Kohl's aims to make activewear at least 30% of its business, since the athleisure trend is more like the new status quo.

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Wednesday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Snap

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Latest Stories

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/23/24

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.