Monday Jul.26, 2021

🎭 Facebook's presidential drama

_How tech giants drop earnings [Donald Iain Smith/Photodisc via GettyImages]_
_How tech giants drop earnings [Donald Iain Smith/Photodisc via GettyImages]_

Hey Snackers,

Your sweet tooth may be cosmic. New research suggests that the universe is a giant donut.

Stocks soared to record highs last week, rebounding from last Monday's plunge as investors reacted to strong corporate earnings. The techy Nasdaq index rallied nearly 3% ahead of Big Tech earnings this week.

Zucked

Facebook's Biden drama: misinformation has hurt the social giant's rep — but not its biz

Drama in the feed... This month, President Biden said social platforms like Meta are "killing people" with Covid misinformation. Facebook's response: a blog post called "Moving Past Finger Pointing." In short, Facebook says it's not its fault that Biden failed to get 70% of American adults vaccinated by July 4th. Biden walked back his comments, but said social platforms should do more to tackle misinfo. As the Delta variant spreads, Covid cases have been surging among the unvaccinated.

  • Biden believes anti-vax content is a key reason some remain unvaxed. A recent study found that 95% of Covid misinfo reported across social platforms wasn't removed.
  • Facebook says it has removed 18M instances of Covid misinfo, and that 85% of its US users have been, or want to be, vaccinated.

Déjà vu vibes... This public spat is part of a much broader issue of content moderation on Facebook, spanning from election interference, to hate speech, to the Capitol riots. Last year, 1K+ advertisers, including big shots like Verizon, paused spending on FB ads to protest its moderation policies. That didn't make a dent in FB's sales. Despite the criticism, FB's biz is thriving, and its stock is at a record high:

  • For the quarter ended in March, FB's ad sales soared 48% from last year to $25B, and profit nearly doubled to $9.5B.
  • When FB reports this Wednesday, analysts expect $28B in quarterly sales, or 60% growth from last year — even faster than the previous quarter.

FB's biggest threats are external... For now, Facebook's 3.5B monthly users across FB, Insta, and WhatsApp mean advertisers are hooked. Misinformation doesn't seem to be hurting its biz — but intensifying antitrust scrutiny and competition from Gen Z-loved apps could. Last year, FB lost users in North America as TikTok blew up. Meanwhile, Biden has tapped Big Tech critics to lead on antitrust regulation. Potential breakups or blocked acquisitions could become existential threats.

Events

Coming up this week...

Big Tech earnings... drop together. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta report quarterly numbers this week. Last quarter, the "Big Tech 5" demolished earnings. Amazon and Apple had their best first quarters ever, Google's profit more than doubled, and Microsoft posted its strongest growth since 2018. The Nasdaq index, which is dominated by the Big Tech 5, is up 17% this year. Despite reopenings, some online pandemic habits seem to have stuck, and even intensified. But tougher antitrust regulation could spell trouble for the "Tech 5" down the line.

Oil or caviar?... You're feeling it at the pump: US gas prices are up 45% from last year. After oil prices plunged in March 2020, OPEC cut oil production to stop the free fall. Now, the powerhouse org of 14 oil-exporting countries has agreed to boost production, as oil prices hit their highest levels in more than two years. We'll see if higher prices helped Shell, Exxon, and Chevron when they report earnings this week. The oil giants are also facing pressure to embrace renewable energy.

Zoom Out

Stories we're watching...

Delta rising... A surge in Covid cases driven by the highly-contagious Delta variant is pouring cold water on recovery optimism. Delta now accounts for an estimated 83% of all new Covid-19 cases in the US. The CDC is calling it "a pandemic of the unvaccinated," and a few big counties, including LA, have brought back indoor mask mandates. Last Monday, the Dow stock index had its biggest one-day drop since October. Stocks have since recovered, but we could see more volatility ahead.

The "House Hype" is real... And it's not a TikTok creator mansion. The housing boom pushed the median US home price to a record high of $363K last month. Homeowners have benefited, gaining $1.5T last year as home values soared. But after more than a year of extreme home shopping, the tight housing supply is increasing, and is expected to grow through the rest of this year.

ICYMI

Last week's highlights...

  • Opioid: Four major drug companies that have been blamed for fueling the opioid epidemic reached a historic $26B settlement with states.
  • mRN-ASAP: Vax-maker Moderna joined the prestigious S&P 500 index, but its real power lies in its mRNA platform.
  • Juicy: Tesla is opening up its exclusive Supercharger networks to other EV brands — Elon just made "the pizza decision."

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Watch: How TikTok's secret algorithm lures you in by tapping into your deepest desires.
  • Apply: Seven things to remove from your resume ASAP, according to one CEO.
  • Sniff: It's not just you — why everyone has the worst summer cold ever.
  • Think: How mental models can train your brain to think in new ways.

This Week

  • Monday: Earnings expected from Tesla and Lockheed Martin
  • Tuesday: Earnings expected from Apple, Microsoft, Google, Visa, UPS, Starbucks, 3M, and General Electric
  • Wednesday: Jerome Powell press conference. Earnings expected from Facebook, PayPal, Shopify, Spotify, Pfizer, McDonald’s, and Boeing
  • Thursday: Weekly jobless claims. Earnings expected from Amazon, Mastercard, Comcast, T-Mobile, Bud-owner AB Inbev, Twilio, Shell, PG&E, and Zendesk
  • Friday: Consumer spending numbers drop. Earnings expected from P&G, Exxon, Chevron, and Caterpillar

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Apple, Google, and Microsoft

ID: 1735679

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Do you want to run the State Department of McDonald’s?

A couple of days ago, a tweet making fun at McDonald’s hiring a “Manager for Diplomatic Relations” went viral.

At first glance, the idea that McDonald’s, a burger franchise known for its double quarter pounders and perfectly salted fries, is expanding its diplomatic influence with policy makers in Foggy Bottom and the world at large sounds comical. But it’s actually crucial.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

Nuke stocks up on AI excitement

For most of humanity, the thought of “nuclear-powered AI” sends a shiver down the spine. But the stock market is all for it! Just check out the list of top performing S&P 500 stocks this year. Just behind established AI plays — Super Micro Computer and Nvidia, you’ll find Constellation Energy, the largest operator of nuclear plants in the U.S. NRG Energy, which also operates nuclear plants, isn’t far behind. Bloomberg reports that CEO of power distributor Exelon — which spun off Constellation in 2022 — says in the Chicago area alone, AI could drive a 900% jump in demand for energy from data centers.

Tech

China makes Apple remove WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram from app store

In its latest move to restrict foreign tech, Beijing has ordered Apple to remove a number of popular messaging apps from its app store there, including WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram.

These apps had only been available through VPNs but were popular nonetheless, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Business

Tesla's recall reveals just how bad Cybertruck delivery numbers have been

Thanks to a recall of Tesla’s Cybertrucks, we now know how many of them have actually been delivered: 3,878 since the EV company began releasing them to customers in November.

In its third and fourth quarter earnings report, Tesla said that its current Cybertruck production capacity was greater than 125,000 a year. Musk had previously said he expected to produce 250,000 Cybertrucks a year by 2025.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

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Markets

Cocoa hits $11,000

Cocoa prices are breaking records on an almost daily basis — with cocoa futures closing at (another) all-time high of $11,020 per metric ton yesterday.

That’s up 158% since the start of the year, and over 4x on the typical prices seen in 2022 — as crop production continues to fall short of demand.

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices
Power

World out of balance: It costs the US 3¢ to make 1 penny

The cost of producing a US penny rose 13% in fiscal 2023 to 3.07 cents. Yes, it means that Uncle Sam loses more than 2 cents for every cent it produces. (And no, you can’t make it up on volume.)

For the record, that’s the 18th straight year the penny’s face value has been below production costs, fueling calls for abolishing the lowest value denomination coin. Canada started to phase out the penny in 2013, joining Australia, Brazil, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, and Israel, according to Smithsonian Magazine.

3.07¢
Business
Rani Molla
4/18/24

Netflix is going to stop sharing subscriber numbers

After posting subscriber numbers that beat expectations today, Netflix says it’s no longer going to share those numbers starting in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a big deal since subscriber numbers have long been one of the main metrics that investors have looked at.

“In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential,” its shareholders letter read. “But now we’re generating very substantial profit and free cash flow.” The company said that it will focus on revenue and operating margin as its main financial metrics, while it will look at time spent on the platform to gauge customer satisfaction.

Another way to read this? They’ve hit market saturation and just aren’t going to be growing that much anymore, and they thought they’d end on a good note. Going forward they’re focusing on how to get more money out of the customers they do have.

They’re doing so by cracking down on password sharing and charging for extra members. They’re also pushing people to ad tiers, which are more profitable than non-ad tiers.

“Scaling ads to become a more meaningful contributor to our business in ‘25 and beyond,” Netflix said.

Netflix’s ads membership grew another 65% in Q1 over the previous one, after rising 70% the quarter before, and 40% of signups in ad markets continue to be for those ad plans.