Tuesday Jul.19, 2022

👻 Side-tab economy

Snap goes back to the future (Snap Inc./Getty Images)
Snap goes back to the future (Snap Inc./Getty Images)

Hey Snackers,

In the vacay world, the only thing worse than finding out your flight is canceled is finding out your connecting flight is canceled — while on the plane to catch said flight.

Stocks ticked down yesterday after a report said that Apple (still Earth’s largest company) would slow its spending and hiring. Meanwhile, homebuilder sentiment had its biggest monthly drop since April 2020 (aka: mid-lockdown) as inflation and soaring mortgage rates curb the home-buying boom.

Tab

Snap finally launches a desktop version of its app, tapping into the infamous yet lucrative “side-tab economy”

Vintage, so adorable... not the "Mean Girls" skirt. Snap's latest move is so old school it's almost innovative. After more than a decade as a mobile-only app, the little ghost is coming for your laptop. Snap’s launching a web version so that you can send disappearing puppy-face pics on your desktop too.

  • Snapchat for Web will initially be available only to subscribers of Snapchat+, its new $4/month subscription. And only in the US and some other English-speaking countries.
  • Do less: The site will launch as a stripped-down version of the app, focused on chats and video calls (no Stories yet). Snap says its average caller spends 30 minutes/day on calls.

Feeling ghosted... by investors. Snap stock is down 70% this year after it said it would miss its earnings guidance for its latest quarter (FYI: it reports Thursday). In May, Snap warned of slowing growth. Now it's trying to spark engagement with its core user base:

  • Save the Snap streak: Snap says it’s used by more than three-quarters of 13- to 34-year-olds in key markets, like the US and UK. These Gen Z’ers and millennials will be more likely to Snap between classes and Zoom meetings.
  • Case in point: Snap’s web offering features a privacy screen that hides the Snap window when you toggle away for another task (think: Excel when your boss walks by).

The side-tab economy has intensified… since the rise of WFH. The side-tab economy = everything you do on your desktop between Google Meets, classes, and deadlines — from bathing-suit shopping to Twitter scrolling. Snap wants to be a tab you always have open during your workday. And its biggest rivals, TikTok and Insta, already have web offerings.

Flurry

McDonald’s franchisees are beefing with their CEO, which could strain the Golden Arches’ core business model

McMutiny… McDonald’s franchise owners are not lovin’ Chris: in a recent survey, 87% of McD’s restaurant owners indicated they disapprove of CEO Chris Kempczinski. That’s not ideal, since franchisees own 95% of the nearly 14K McDonald’s restaurants in the US. Two years ago, there was a turf war over Happy Meals. Now there’s fresh beef:

  • McDynasty: Last summer, McD’s added new fees for passing on franchise licenses to family members. Burger heirs now have to pay fees to inherit Golden Arches from their parents.
  • Two sides of the same patty: McD’s says it’s trying to expand franchisee diversity. The chain plans to offer $250M in loans to boost ownership diversity (FYI: it costs at least $1.4M to open a McD’s). But owners say the new rules are just an excuse for corporate to charge higher fees and mandate costly training.

Nuggets of success… The franchise model usually benefits both sides: companies make big bucks renting out real estate, brand IP, and deep fryers, while owners profit from beloved chains. Subway, Dunkin, and Marriott are all heavily franchised. But during the pandemic tensions between franchisees and their corporate overlords rose as companies imposed new rules and demanded higher fees.

Franchises are symbiotic relationships… but inflation and other stresses can throw off their balance. McD’s scaled into the world’s largest burger chain thanks to its franchisees. In return, franchisees got a taste of McD’s fame — and profits. But new rules are alienating franchisees, which could hurt business. Last year, the number of McD’s owners who sold their franchises boomed, and the number of US McD’s locations has fallen since 2019.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Cut: Russia’s Gazprom reportedly stopped exports to some major European buyers, blaming “extraordinary” circumstances. EU countries worry Russia won’t restore gas flow, which could launch an energy crisis.
  • Map: The US gov’t is paying location-data brokers to track hundreds of thousands of Americans through their phones. Critics say that violates the Fourth Amendment, which blocks unwarranted searches.
  • Swipe: Bank of America’s revenue jumped 6% last quarter as consumers ramped up credit-card spend on everything from vacays to gas (ditto for Citi). But profit fell 32% as IPO listings and M&A deals dried up.
  • Maxed: Delta’s updating its fleet with 100 new Boeing 737 Max planes, its first major order in over a decade. But Boeing said supply and labor shortages will curb Max production until late next year.
  • Exit: As the US dollar appreciates, it’s getting pricier for foreigners to snag American vacay homes. The # of foreign homebuyers in the US fell 8% in the past year to the lowest level in over a decade.

Tuesday

  • Earnings expected from Johnson & Johnson, Novartis, Netflix, Hasbro, and Halliburton

Authors of this Snacks own: shares of Snap, Apple, Netflix, Disney, Twitter, Google, and Delta

ID: 2299413

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Nicolai Tangen, the CEO who holds the purse strings of Norway’s $1.6 trillion sovereign wealth fund, thinks that his fellow Europeans don’t quite stack up to US employees when it comes to pure hustle, telling the Financial Times in a recent interview that there is a difference in “the general level of ambition” and thatthe Americans just work harder”. 

Tangen has clearly been putting his money — or more specifically Norway’s — where his mouth is: the sprawling Norwegian oil fund, now one of the largest investors on the planet, has been pumping more capital into its US holdings in the past decade, while decreasing its investment into European entities.

The troublesome news for our European readers? Tangen might be onto something. According to data from the OECD, American workers are putting in almost 60 hours a year more than the weighted average for OECD nations… a benchmark that workers from countries in the European Union are already ~180 hours shy of.

Hours worked

Tangen has clearly been putting his money — or more specifically Norway’s — where his mouth is: the sprawling Norwegian oil fund, now one of the largest investors on the planet, has been pumping more capital into its US holdings in the past decade, while decreasing its investment into European entities.

The troublesome news for our European readers? Tangen might be onto something. According to data from the OECD, American workers are putting in almost 60 hours a year more than the weighted average for OECD nations… a benchmark that workers from countries in the European Union are already ~180 hours shy of.

Hours worked
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$70B

Alphabet shares are soaring in the after-market session, with a initial jump of more than 10% implying a gain of upwards of about $200B in market value when the stock opens tomorrow morning.

Google’s parent company crushed earnings expectations, initiated a cash dividend for the first time, and authorized a fresh $70B in share repurchases for good measure. The market likes it very much.

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Rani Molla
4/25/24

No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

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Meta exhaustingly tries to merge the metaverse and AI

Gonna have to rename the company... again

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