Tuesday Jun.08, 2021

💰 The Big Tech tax

_The mood at Dublin tech pubs [mihailomilovanovic/E+ via GettyImages]_
_The mood at Dublin tech pubs [mihailomilovanovic/E+ via GettyImages]_

Hey Snackers,

Some buy a sports car or a house in Boca when they retire. Jeff Bezos is going to space.

While Bezos and his brother packed to board a Blue Origin rocket (Hawaiian shirt optional), stocks barely budged yesterday.

Taxy

The G7's historic global tax agreement: corporate giants should pay at least 15%

Fly like a G7... and drop bad news on Big Tech. The Group of Seven = the US, UK, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and Japan. The G7 met in London over the weekend — and left with some tea to spill: the countries agreed that multinational companies should pay a minimum tax rate of at least 15% in each country in which they operate.

  • For a long time, companies like Google and Amazon have been plopping their international headquarters in countries with low corporate tax rates.
  • Think: Ireland, which has a 12.5% tax rate, hosts the European HQs of many tech and pharma giants. That's created beef with Germany, France, and other EU countries where these companies also operate (they want more tax money).

The luck of the Irish... may end. The deal marks a big step toward potentially adopting a 15% global minimum corporate-tax rate. That Dublin office = not so clutch anymore. Companies would have to pay the minimum rate regardless of where they're based. The agreement aims to stop large multinationals from seeking out tax havens —  and force them to pay more of their income to governments. But it still has to go through the G20, which includes China, India, and other developing economies.

This could level the playing field... and end the "race to the bottom." For decades, countries have been competing with each other to attract corporate investment for economic growth. The main way to do that: lower companies' taxes. In 2000, more than 55 countries had corporate tax rates above 30% — now, fewer than 20 do. President Biden wants to raise corporate taxes in the US to fund government programs. The admin is backing a 15% global minimum to help keep the US competitive.

Drugs

Biogen's Alzheimer's breakthrough: shares soar nearly 40% after FDA approval

Not vax-related... for once. The Food and Drug Administration has made headlines for another reason. Yesterday, the FDA approved Biogen's Alzheimer’s drug aducanumab (rolls off the tongue). Biogen shares soared 38% on the news. It's a big deal — so big that the Nasdaq halted trading of Biogen shares ahead of the FDA's decision.

  • #1: It's the first new therapy for Alzheimer's in 20 years. It's also the first FDA-approved drug to slow mental decline in people living with Alzheimer’s.
  • 6M people are affected by Alzheimer's in the US, where the disease is the sixth-leading cause of death.
  • $56K: The drug's list price per year. It's expected to generate billions in sales for Biogen.

There's a catch... The FDA approved it on the condition that Biogen conduct another clinical trial. Many Alzheimer’s experts aren't happy with the approval and its mixed supporting data. Some aren't convinced the clinical trial data was enough to prove the drug works.

Drug stocks depend on drug pops... Which is why Biogen's five-year stock chart looks like a rollercoaster. In March 2015, Biogen stock was trading even higher than it was yesterday after it dropped positive early-stage data from an aducanumab trial (yep, the same Alzheimer's drug). Then in July 2015, Biogen released additional data about the trial that disappointed investors — and lost $20B in market value as its stock plunged. The results of Biogen’s next aducanumab trial could impact the stock again.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Historic: Google agreed to change its global advertising practices after France's competition watchdog slapped it with an unprecedented $268M fine.
  • Corona: A US government report found it plausible that Covid-19 leaked from a Wuhan lab, according to WSJ's sources.
  • WWDC: Apple unveiled new iOS 15 features at its annual developers conference, including IRL-style FaceTime calls and digital keys in Apple Wallet.
  • Ready: The Senate is poised to pass a $200B+ industrial policy bill to counter China — and for once, the bill has broad bipartisan support.
  • Payback: US law-enforcement officials recovered $2.3M in crypto that was paid as ransom to the Colonial Pipeline hackers.

Tuesday

  • Earnings expected from Casey's General Stores and Thor Industries

ID: 1

Get Your News

Subscribe and thrive

Snacks provides fresh takes on the financial news you need to start your day. Chartr provides data visualizations on business, entertainment, and society. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Latest Stories

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Go Deeper with Market Depth

Nasdaq TotalView powers the need-to-know data serious investors rely on.

Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia
Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

Job switchers and stayers

The FTC is banning non-compete clauses

Why that might make job switching even more lucrative

Your inbox is ready

Subscribe and thrive

Snacks provides fresh takes on the financial news you need to start your day. Chartr provides data visualizations on business, entertainment, and society. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.