Friday Mar.04, 2022

🛥️ Oligarchs and yacht-onomics

Roman Abramovich's superyacht, Solaris, in Barcelona on Tuesday (David Ramos/Getty Images)
Roman Abramovich's superyacht, Solaris, in Barcelona on Tuesday (David Ramos/Getty Images)

Hey Snackers,

Ukraine and Russia agreed to create a “humanitarian corridor” to evacuate civilians from Ukraine, and it could come with a temporary ceasefire. The UN said the war could make 4M people refugees. Meanwhile, Russia is gaining ground in critical parts of southern Ukraine.

Stocks ended yesterday lower, while oil briefly soared past $116/barrel for the first time since 2008. In the San Francisco Bay Area, average gas prices topped $5/gallon.

Klepto

To crank up pressure on Putin, Western powers target Russian oligarchs — and their superyachts

Rough seas for Putin’s pals… First, Western governments went after Russia’s banks — now they’re targeting its oligarchs. Refresher: oligarchs are wealthy individuals with outsized influence over government. Post-Soviet oligarchs have amassed staggering fortunes during the privatization of Russia’s economy by doing favors for politicians like President Putin. By going after oligarchs, Western countries hope to pressure Putin to end the war in Ukraine:

  • Seize and freeze: President Biden launched “Task Force KleptoCapture” (real name) to confiscate Russian oligarchs’ yachts, jets, and pricey pads. European authorities have already seized some big boats, like the 280-foot Amore Vero owned by a Putin confidant.
  • Cut and run: Some oligarchs are sailing for safer harbors, but even formerly friendly destinations like Monaco have adopted sanctions. Others are trying to sell: Roman Abramovich put Chelsea FC up for sale. FYI: He’s one of a handful of oligarchs who’ve broken rank by publicly criticizing the war.

Yacht-onomics… Putin has spent years sanction-proofing Russia for this day. Moscow stockpiled currency, bought Chinese bonds, and ditched Western trade partners to fortify Russia’s economy. Oligarchs did their part: experts say Putin and his cronies have personally stashed at least $250B of dark money outside Russia. But their laundered loot is hidden in plain sight: $1B+ yachts and Manhattan penthouses aren’t exactly subtle.

Keep your enemies' friends close… So far, government sanctions and international shaming haven’t stopped Putin from escalating his aggression against Ukrainians. Western leaders hope that going after his influential friends could help turn the screws. Russian oligarchs have already lost $83B because of sanctions — and that’s not counting the yachts. And it’s just beginning: the US is said to be expanding sanctions against oligarchs and the businesses that made them rich.

WHM

The labor market is resurging — but millions of women are still recovering from the “she-cession”

Let this sink in… After two years of a pandemic, women have still not fully recovered from the labor market pain of 2020. While the US added a record 6.4M jobs last year, and the overall unemployment rate is down to 4%, men have dominated new hirings. Of the jobs gained in January, women filled 40%. This morning’s jobs report will offer fresh insight into how women are rebounding from the she-cession.

  • In the US: 2.5M+ women dropped out of the labor force between February 2020 and January 2021, versus 1.8M men. That’s unusual, because men typically fare worse during recessions.
  • Globally: 64M+ women lost their jobs in 2020, which resulted in $800B in lost income.

Why women left… Women bore the brunt of childcare when schools closed, which hurt their careers, relationships, and well-being. Women are also overrepresented in jobs with some of the highest burnout rates, including high-contact industries like healthcare, education, and retail. Ultimately, many mothers were forced to decide between being primary caregivers or full-time employees. And while schools have reopened, there’s still a childcare crisis keeping women out of the resurgent labor market:

  • 16K licensed childcare facilities permanently closed between December 2019 and March 2021, while childcare costs have increased by 41% since the pandemic began.
  • American childcare workers — 95% of whom are women — earn just $12/hr on average, which makes recruitment and retention challenging.

The labor market is still healing… especially for women. Biden’s $1.2T infrastructure bill aims to pump money into industries like construction and transportation, but those sectors have traditionally employed few women. Some say minimizing bias against workers who take career breaks for childcare could help women return to the labor pool.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Mind: Several state AGs are investigating TikTok over its impact on the mental and physical health of young people. Last year, leaked docs showed that Meta knew Instagram had a harmful effect on teen girls.
  • Strike: Electronic Arts is removing Russian teams from popular video games like NHL 22 and FIFA 22. It comes after those clubs were barred from playing in (real life) international leagues.
  • Khakis: Gap shares popped 16% after hours despite reporting weak sales in the holiday quarter. The retailer said the current quarter’s looking iffy, too, but gave a positive outlook for the full year.
  • Encore: Epic Games is buying Bandcamp, the music platform popular with indie fans, for an undisclosed amount. Bandcamp’s known for letting artists set the price for their music, a rarity in the streaming world.
  • Bricks: Amazon is closing 68 retail shops, including all its bookstores, to focus on its Whole Foods grocery biz. The Zon’s brick-and-mortar stores made up just 3% of sales last quarter.

Friday

  • Monthly employment data
  • Paralympics Opening Ceremony
  • Earnings expected from Dole

Authors of this Snacks own shares of Amazon

ID: 2065103

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Latest Stories

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/23/24

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.