Friday Aug.30, 2019

Amazon snags 15% of the Yankees (network)

_When Amazon buys a sports channel_
_When Amazon buys a sports channel_

Hey Snackers,

Invites to Apple's iPhone 11 reveal next month just went out. We didn't get one either. We're relaxing until Tuesday for Labor Day Weekend to get over it.

Stocks continued the rebound Thursday as China signaled it didn't want to escalate the trade war further.

Bundled

Disney sells YES Network to the Yankees, Sinclair, and *Amazon*

Now batting, for the New York Yankees... Jeff Bezos. In one of the final chapters of the Disney-acquires-Fox saga, Disney officially sold the YES Network Thursday to the NY Yankees, Sinclair Broadcast Group, Amazon, and some other investors. Here's what they're buying:

  • YES is the TV channel with rights to broadcast the Yankees, Brooklyn Nets, NY Liberty, and NYC FC teams.
  • And it's worth $3.7B because New York sports have global appeal despite local frustration.

This Disney & Fox deal goes way back to 2017... That's when Mickey started a bidding war against Comcast to acquire 21st Century Fox, which included X-Men, Fantastic Four, The Simpsons, Avatar, 22 regional sports networks, and the YES Network. The Justice Department allowed the merger on 1 big condition:

  • The requirement: Disney can add all those big names, but only if it sells the sports channels and YES — otherwise it would have too much media power.
  • Sports translation: LeBron and Kobe can be on the same team, but only if they trade away Steph to another one.

Amazon's now the proud 15% owner of YES Network... It hasn't said what it will do with that — But we're all hoping for the Yankees to be a #PrimePerk. Amazon Prime Video has already done deals with the NFL's Thursday Night Football and the Premier League. CEO Bezos won't offer up details yet, but it's already generating HQ2-style speculation.

Strut

Forever 21 may declare bankruptcy — and the end of fast fashion

Because you need that fall transitional cropped sweater ASAP... "fast fashion" became a thing: it's the art of catching new trends and pumping out styles quick with efficient supply chains — and the big 3 have been H&M, Zara, and Forever 21. Now Forever 21 and its satin belted 800 stores are reportedly filing for bankruptcy.

Travel back to 1984... Mock turtlenecks were in and a South Korean immigrant couple with $11K founded a store in LA committed to chambray, bomber jackets, and anything that had staying potential (fyi, Forever 21 is still private — you can't buy the stock). That fast fashion trend it rode hit a peak this decade, but now the leaders are feeling pains. Fast.

  • H&M lost half its market value in just the last 5 years — and it's stuck with $4.3B in unsold clothes, some of which it burns to get rid of.
  • Zara just missed full-year earnings expectations.
  • Fast fashion has now faced the f-word: "Fad" — it's become one.

Fast Fashion's losing to its opposite... sustainable fashion. Sure, Forever 21 is also dependent on physical stores and malls that are struggling — but overall, the used fashion industry is now suddenly expected to pass the fast fashion one within a decade. Here's who's out-dressing fast fashion:

  • Rent the Runway literally rents you daily clothes now (not just fancy wedding weekend gowns).
  • Urban Outfitters launched its own rental copycat look.
  • Stitch Fix sends monthly boxes and uses AI to better tell what you'll actually like (and not waste).
  • TheRealReal IPO'd this year committed to reusing and reselling that authentic Gucci getup so it doesn't end up in a landfill.
Pay

Citibank & Panera Bread: 2 stories show minimum wage is having a moment

Free bread's not enough... The CFO of Panera told CNBC that he's suffering through 100% employee turnover every year. With 100K employees, this stat means the carbo-loaded chain needs to hire 100K people every year because about 100K quit every year. Let that sink in. And get this:

  • The "turnover rate" is even higher in the rest of fast food — up to 150%.
  • That means more than 1 person quits from the same position each year, and the company just has to keep on rehiring.

Different industry, same problem... To keep employees from leaving, Citigroup just increased its minimum wage to $15/hour, finally catching up with Wells Fargo ($15/hour), but still trailing JP Morgan ($15-18) and Bank of America ($20).

  • High turnover is driven by our ridiculously low unemployment rate (3.7%) that puts workers in high demand, more able to switch jobs and make more money.
  • The response is to do nothing or pay more to preempt a cook from bouncing to Chipotle for an extra buck or two an hour.

Companies can save money by paying workers more... To replace a Panera employee, it has to hire (+ paperwork/interviews), train (that takes time), and wait until the worker is actually good (many mis-flipped eggs later). Paying more could prevent those costs by keeping workers around. But wages are still not growing fast on average, forcing some states to push minimum wage increases.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Future: Nike unveils a new shoe that can tighten when you tell Siri to make that happen
  • eSafe: Tesla announces a new car insurance product for its drivers
  • Un-popped: Abercrombie plummets 15% because of the tariffs about to hit footwear and apparel
  • Huge: Saudi Aramco, the not-yet-publicly-traded massive oil company, is considering a 2-part IPO in Hong Kong and London — but geopolitical issues in both may completely change that
  • GDP: The US economy continued its 11-year expansion by growing at a 2% rate last quarter, a tad below the 3.1% we enjoyed in the 1st quarter

Friday

  • The Consumer Sentiment poll tells us how we're all feeling about the economy right now
  • Earnings from Campbell Soup
  • FYI, markets are closed Monday for Labor Day, so we'll be back in your inbox Tuesday morning

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Amazon and Tesla

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Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

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Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/23/24

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

$127

The average bitcoin-transaction fee hit an all-time high of $127 on Friday.

The temporary spike came as the halving cut miner rewards and traders forked over huge sums of BTC (skewing the average) to be included in the first post-halving block.

Adding fuel to the fee fire was the launch of Runes, a new protocol that lets developers create memecoins on top of the bitcoin blockchain. The debut was so popular that fees popped as traders fought for limited block space.