Friday Jul.30, 2021

🌮 Amazon earnings and DoorDash chefs

_DoorDash senses a presence [Ralf Nau/The Image Bank via GettyImages]_
_DoorDash senses a presence [Ralf Nau/The Image Bank via GettyImages]_

Hey Snackers,

Because people aren't obsessed with their cats enough, a new app tells you how your feline is feeling. Just snap a pic of your kitty's face to find out if it's a verified sourpuss.

Stocks ticked up, despite new stats suggesting that econ recovery is starting to slow. The US economy grew a slower-than-expected 6.5% last quarter.

Ghosted

DoorDash's "ghost kitchen" could help restaurants solve one of their biggest challenges

Your ghost burrito has arrived... DoorDash's core biz model is straightforward: the gig app connects you to drivers, who pick up your order from restaurants. Now, America's top food deliverer is putting on its apron: DoorDash opened its second "ghost kitchen" — aka: a delivery-only restaurant. Unlike DoorDash's first ghost kitchen, where it only rents space to restaurants:

  • DoorDash is getting its hands dirty with this one. It's doing most of the work for restaurants, from cooking to logistics and hiring (see: DoorDash line cook).
  • The new kitchen in San Jose houses six restaurants who have licensed their brands to DoorDash, including Milk Bar and LA's classic Canter's Deli. DD is teaching its "culinary team" how to replicate their signature treats.

Flipping burgers... and business models. Instead of taking a cut of restaurant sales, DoorDash is giving restaurants a cut of its kitchen sales. Like Uber Eats, DoorDash has never made a profit. But this kitchen model could help it keep a larger slice of restaurant sales, and potentially boost its profit margins. If its cooking experiment is successful, DoorDash could keep its kitchen past November.

  • Spooky stat: Pre-pandemic, ghost kitchens were expected to make up 10% to 15% of the US restaurant industry by 2025. Now, they're expected to make up 21%.

Restaurants could become more scalable... thanks to "kitchen-as-a-service" options. Opening new restaurants is expensive, time-consuming, and risky. Restaurant owners never know if their second location could be a hit in L.A. — or if it’ll have a "For Lease" sign in two months. Ghost kitchens remove the brick-and-mortar and hiring costs, giving restaurant owners more flexibility to test new markets.

Amazon dropped its third $100B+ quarter — but the stock fell on rough corona comparisons

Bezos-ian proportions... Minus the Bezos. Amazon just released its first earnings without Jeff Bezos at the helm. After handing over his empire to new CEO Andy Jassy, Bezos went to space — and Amazon kept being Amazon. The 'Zon just reported its third quarter in a row of $100B+ in sales. Jassy's inheriting a well-oiled money-making machine.

Your quarterly Primer... If there's one thing we've learned from this quarter's Big Tech earnings: online pandemic habits have stuck. In some cases, our scrolly-tappy ways have even ramped up. Amazon's quarterly revenue jumped 27% from last year to $113B —  better than its mid-pandemic revenue. A few Prime highlights:

  • Global Prime-ification: Prime is now available in 22 countries, and members shopped more this Prime Day than ever before (250M items sold).
  • Gadgets FTW: Amazon's Fire TV Stick 4K with Alexa Voice Remote was the most-purchased product.
  • Back-to-school splurge: Prime members bought 1M+ laptops, 600K backpacks, 220K Crayola products, and 40K calculators.

Corona comparisons are rough... Despite the ginormous $113B quarter, Amazon still missed sales expectations — and the stock plunged 7%. The 'Zon also predicted that sales growth will continue slowing in the current quarter. CFO Brian Olsavsky blames tough year-over-year comparisons: in the same quarter last year, Amazon doubled its profit as nearly every biz line benefited from the corona-conomy — from ecomm, to cloud computing, to Prime Video. When you're comparing to that, it's tough to keep growth accelerating.

Again

As big sponsors shrug off these bummer Olympics, small sponsors are feeling the hit

The Olympics of "meh"... The Olympics opening ceremony had the worst viewership in 33 years, but the sponsor bucks rolled in regardless. The International Olympic Committee (IOC) raked in a record $2B+ in global sponsorships for the Tokyo Games. Meanwhile, Japanese organizers secured $3.3B+ from 60+ local sponsors — more than 3X any previous Games. But since Tokyo banned IRL fans in stadiums, sponsors are taking a hit:

  • Bad timing: 80% of Japanese citizens didn't even want these pandemic Games to happen. To avoid bad press, Toyota pulled local ads while Asics scratched its ceremony.
  • Switching gears can be pricey: Most sponsors redid ad campaigns to make them pandemic-appropriate.

Not-so-blue for blue-chips... Local sponsors had one shot at Olympic marketing glory. Big global sponsors have several. The IOC requires its 15 official partners to commit to multiple Games. In return, they get global ad campaigns and other perks. Wild stat: Coke, Google, P&G, Toyota, and Samsung account for 93% of all Olympic ad spend.

Sometimes, smaller means bigger risks... All sponsors are cramped by Tokyo’s record-low viewership, but local sponsors are hurting the most. Japanese beer legend Asahi paid $135M to serve its brew to stadium fans – now it won’t pour a single lager. Small sponsors may think twice about spending on the 2022 Winter Games slotted for Beijing, which already face boycott calls around China’s human rights record.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • VaxCash: President Biden asked states to offer $100 payments to people who get the Covid shot, as the Delta variant continues to spread.
  • Trucked: Nikola shares plunged 15% after founder Trevor Milton was indicted for allegedly lying to investors about the e-truck company's progress.
  • Swipe: Mastercard swiped up an expectation-smashing $4.5B in revenue thanks to revenge spending on restaurants, clothes, and travel in the US and abroad.
  • Mayoshi: Uber shares slipped 4% on reports that mega-investor SoftBank is selling a large chunk of its stake in the ride-hailer.
  • Jump: Puma's North America sales nearly tripled last quarter thanks to booming interest in activewear and "comfort" clothes. Functional = still fashionable.

Friday

  • Consumer spending numbers drop
  • Earnings expected from P&G, Exxon, Chevron, and Caterpillar

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Amazon, Google, Disney, and Uber

ID: 1742757

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World

Do you want to run the State Department of McDonald’s?

A couple of days ago, a tweet making fun at McDonald’s hiring a “Manager for Diplomatic Relations” went viral.

At first glance, the idea that McDonald’s, a burger franchise known for its double quarter pounders and perfectly salted fries, is expanding its diplomatic influence with policy makers in Foggy Bottom and the world at large sounds comical. But it’s actually crucial.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

Nuke stocks up on AI excitement

For most of humanity, the thought of “nuclear-powered AI” sends a shiver down the spine. But the stock market is all for it! Just check out the list of top performing S&P 500 stocks this year. Just behind established AI plays — Super Micro Computer and Nvidia, you’ll find Constellation Energy, the largest operator of nuclear plants in the U.S. NRG Energy, which also operates nuclear plants, isn’t far behind. Bloomberg reports that CEO of power distributor Exelon — which spun off Constellation in 2022 — says in the Chicago area alone, AI could drive a 900% jump in demand for energy from data centers.

Tech

China makes Apple remove WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram from app store

In its latest move to restrict foreign tech, Beijing has ordered Apple to remove a number of popular messaging apps from its app store there, including WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram.

These apps had only been available through VPNs but were popular nonetheless, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Business

Tesla's recall reveals just how bad Cybertruck delivery numbers have been

Thanks to a recall of Tesla’s Cybertrucks, we now know how many of them have actually been delivered: 3,878 since the EV company began releasing them to customers in November.

In its third and fourth quarter earnings report, Tesla said that its current Cybertruck production capacity was greater than 125,000 a year. Musk had previously said he expected to produce 250,000 Cybertrucks a year by 2025.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

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Markets

Cocoa hits $11,000

Cocoa prices are breaking records on an almost daily basis — with cocoa futures closing at (another) all-time high of $11,020 per metric ton yesterday.

That’s up 158% since the start of the year, and over 4x on the typical prices seen in 2022 — as crop production continues to fall short of demand.

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices
Power

World out of balance: It costs the US 3¢ to make 1 penny

The cost of producing a US penny rose 13% in fiscal 2023 to 3.07 cents. Yes, it means that Uncle Sam loses more than 2 cents for every cent it produces. (And no, you can’t make it up on volume.)

For the record, that’s the 18th straight year the penny’s face value has been below production costs, fueling calls for abolishing the lowest value denomination coin. Canada started to phase out the penny in 2013, joining Australia, Brazil, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, and Israel, according to Smithsonian Magazine.

3.07¢
Business
Rani Molla
4/18/24

Netflix is going to stop sharing subscriber numbers

After posting subscriber numbers that beat expectations today, Netflix says it’s no longer going to share those numbers starting in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a big deal since subscriber numbers have long been one of the main metrics that investors have looked at.

“In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential,” its shareholders letter read. “But now we’re generating very substantial profit and free cash flow.” The company said that it will focus on revenue and operating margin as its main financial metrics, while it will look at time spent on the platform to gauge customer satisfaction.

Another way to read this? They’ve hit market saturation and just aren’t going to be growing that much anymore, and they thought they’d end on a good note. Going forward they’re focusing on how to get more money out of the customers they do have.

They’re doing so by cracking down on password sharing and charging for extra members. They’re also pushing people to ad tiers, which are more profitable than non-ad tiers.

“Scaling ads to become a more meaningful contributor to our business in ‘25 and beyond,” Netflix said.

Netflix’s ads membership grew another 65% in Q1 over the previous one, after rising 70% the quarter before, and 40% of signups in ad markets continue to be for those ad plans.