Tuesday Mar.24, 2020

🤔 We've got 2 paths

"_Well... both these paths look pretty terrifying._"
"_Well... both these paths look pretty terrifying._"

Hey Snackers,

The toilet paper hoarding crisis hit a new low — One California hero has been standing on a street corner giving away TP to those in need. Call him Angel Soft.

Investors were disappointed after the Senate (again) failed to pass a coronavirus stimulus bill (expected to be worth $1.8T). The Dow fell nearly 600 points, on track for its worst month since 1931.

Choose

2 hard choices on the coronavirus path — Trump signals shift to Path B

Two roads diverged in a yellow wood... and both are less travelled by. Robert Frost had an easier choice. When the "15 Days to Slow the Spread" end on March 31, the White House will face 2 options for what to recommend next in response to the Coronavirus:

  • A) Aggressive distancing: Order everyone to stay at home, keep almost all businesses closed indefinitely, and have those who can WFH do it. Great way to contain the disease, but with devastating economic consequences: Potentially 30% unemployment and Goldman Sachs thinks 2.25M became unemployed just last week.
  • B) Targeted/Partial distancing: Relax CDC guidelines to gradually let biz reopen and the young/healthy return to work. Only keep the most vulnerable — the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions — at home. This could limit the economic damage, but with potentially devastating health consequences: If miscalculated, this could increase the death toll to millions.

We've never been faced with a decision like this.... Both President Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin have signaled a shift in which path to choose, only days after promoting the 15-day distancing plan. Trump tweeted Monday "we cannot let the cure be worse than the problem itself." He doesn't want to save everyone if it means utter destruction of the economy.

This choice is painful — and economists love that... It isn't strictly between economic damage or health damage, because the 2 overlap in some scenearios: Inability to support families could increase suicide rates, a leading cause of death in the US — but relaxing social distancing guidelines might overwhelm the healthcare system, leading to more deaths and economic damage in the long run.

Listen

The NY Times strategically acquired an article-reading startup

That New Yorker subscription you pay for... but only read the cartoons? There's a fix. The New York Times just acquired Audm, a subscription app that turns longform articles into audio. For $8.99/month, Audm gives subscribers audio versions of way-too-long articles, so you can feel enlightened while cleaning out the closet.

  • Out of all the services that turn articles/stories into audio, Audm caught the NYT's eye because of the Hollywood-ish flare it adds: in the past it crowdsourced narration with plain old voices. But after growing tired of dogs barking in the background, it landed on...
  • Using pro voice actors to narrate articles — these literary "celebs" make listening to a 6-million word article more enticing. Audm works with outlets like The Atlantic and Vanity Fair to voice-ify their writing.

Double-down on the "pod boom"... The NYT learned, maybe from its own article on the topic, that podcast growth in the US is popping. In November 2019, a whopping 62M Americans listened to pods each week, up from 19M in 2013. The Times' The Daily pod is already the top daily pod on Spotify, but it wants an even bigger share of America's ears — so it's audio-fying its articles.

This 1 acquisition basically doubles the Times' content... The NYT already has the raw news content — that's the most time/research-intensive part of journalism. But now for each 12-page article it churns out, it can expand reach (and earn more money) by converting it to another medium (audio). Since media is a combo of "Content" + "Distribution," the more distribution channels a quality publisher has, the greater their reach.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Yoda'd: Hasbro shares jump 12% on word of 'great demand' for toys as China's supply chain roars back to life
  • Deliver: Lyft will expand its services to offer medical supplies and essential meal deliveries to people in need
  • Hire: CVS is hiring for 50K jobs to meet all the demand for its OTC and prescription drug deliveries
  • Shut: Boeing plans a 2-week shutdown of its Seattle-area factories because Washington state (where most its production happens) is in a state of emergency

Tuesday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Carnival

ID: 1128334

Get Your News

Subscribe and thrive

Snacks provides fresh takes on the financial news you need to start your day. Chartr provides data visualizations on business, entertainment, and society. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Latest Stories

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

Go Deeper with Market Depth

Nasdaq TotalView powers the need-to-know data serious investors rely on.

Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia
Job switchers and stayers

The FTC is banning non-compete clauses

Why that might make job switching even more lucrative

Your inbox is ready

Subscribe and thrive

Snacks provides fresh takes on the financial news you need to start your day. Chartr provides data visualizations on business, entertainment, and society. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/23/24

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.