Friday Nov.12, 2021

🏈 Disney’s sports-betting play

A little undercooked [Giuseppe Elio Cammarata via Getty Images]
A little undercooked [Giuseppe Elio Cammarata via Getty Images]

Hey Snackers,

Forget the Gatorade: Israeli archaeologists discovered an ancient gold ring they believe was worn for wellness benefits — including warding off hangovers.

Stocks closed the day higher, but ended the week in the red as inflation fears loomed over investors. Meanwhile, Johnson & Johnson shares got a boost after the healthcare company announced it was splitting into two companies.

Wager

Disney eyes sports betting to fuel its entertainment biz as streaming slows

Baby Yoda sad... Investors weren’t chanting “Hakuna Matata” after Disney's quarterly earnings. Mickey's biz hasn't quite rebounded to pre-pandemic levels. Last quarter, sales jumped to $18.5B (compared to $19.1B for the same quarter back in 2019). Worse, Disney's profits were less than 25% of what they were pre-Covid. While Space Mountain is back, Disney's Parks and Experiences unit disappointed on profit big time. Streaming did not save the day...

  • Disney minus: Disney+ gained 2.1M subscribers, the smallest rise since it launched two years ago and less than half what Netflix added.
  • Frozen audience: CEO Bob Chapek said Disney+ is still on track to hit 230M to 260M subs by 2025, but some investors worry growth is tapping out.
  • FYI: Disney's media biz, including streaming and cable, now makes up 70% of its sales.

From Belle to betting... Now that's a pivot. Chapek said "sports betting is a very significant opportunity" for Disney, and the company is pursuing it "aggressively" through its ESPN brand. ESPN has suffered as millennials continue cord-cutting, and streamer ESPN+, like Disney+, is still losing money. Gambling could be a lucrative way for Disney to attract young sports fans.

  • ESPN has reportedly had talks with sportsbooks, including DraftKings and Caesars Entertainment, to license its famous name for a whopping $3B.
  • ESPN already has sports-betting content on its platforms through marketing deals, but licensing could create an ESPN-branded betting platform.

Some vices might be losing taboo status… According to Disney's research, gambling won't hurt Disney's brand but will strengthen ESPN's. Chapek said gambling doesn't have the same rep it did a decade ago. Thirty-two US states have legalized sports betting, and this week New York approved online-betting licenses for nine operators. Yet shares of sports-gambling companies tell a different tale: DraftKings, Penn National Gaming, and FanDuel owner Flutter are all down this year.

Burnt

Beyond Meat serves up undercooked earnings as plant-based growth wilts

Pea protein takes an L… Plant-based-patty powerhouse Beyond Meat has lost some of its bite. While overall sales grew last quarter, Beyond’s US sales dropped 14% from last year — and its loss nearly tripled. Beyond blamed lower demand, plus production-related snags. It also gave a disappointing forecast for this quarter, citing pandemic uncertainty. Shares tumbled 13% yesterday, pulling Beyond’s market cap down to $5B from its 2019 high of $14B.

Beyond Beyond… Beyond is estimated to control about a quarter of the US alt-meat market, but plant-based competition is growing. Big Food companies may be an even bigger threat than smaller rivals, like Impossible Foods. Globally, Beyond sells in 122K stores while Impossible is in 20K — but Big Food companies like Tyson and Kraft are nearly everywhere.

  • Kroger saw a surge in sales of its plant-based meat brand Simple Foods last year, while food giants like Tyson, Hormel, and Kraft have launched their own alt-meat products.
  • Beyond and Impossible have lowered prices to compete with Big Food, which can afford to undercut smaller rivals.
  • Partnerships with chains like Starbucks and McDonald’s have helped Beyond and Impossible grow, but aren’t taking off as fast as expected.

Novelty builds brands… but it doesn’t necessarily build loyalty. Restaurant partnerships helped make Beyond the most recognized plant-based brand. Dunkin dumped Beyond in June because of low Beyond Sausage sales. McDonald’s is serving the Beyond “McPlant” burger at only eight of its 14K locations. And KFC still hasn’t given Beyond Meat chicken nuggets a permanent spot on its menu. Impossible has also had a few partnership fails.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Sold: The average US home now sells one week after hitting the market — the shortest time frame in 22 years.
  • eSingle: Alibaba’s “Singles Day” shopping event was hampered by supply-chain troubles, which resulted in higher costs and delays for the Chinese ecomm titan.
  • Headline: The DOJ and SEC are investigating Ozy Media, which shut down last month over accusations that it misled prospective investors.
  • Payout: Miami plans to pay its residents a “Bitcoin dividend” following the launch of its MiamiCoin cryptocurrency, which has already generated $21M+ in revenue.
  • Wipes: Shares of Jessica Alba’s Honest Company jumped 10% yesterday after it reported a boom in sales of skin care, diapers, and baby wipes.
  • Swerve: Chinese real-estate developer Evergrande avoided default for the third time this year after making interest payments on its $300B debt.

Friday

  • Earnings expected from AstraZeneca and Warby Parker

Authors of this Snacks own: Bitcoin, and shares of Disney and Starbucks

ID: 1919413

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Latest Stories

$70B

Alphabet shares are soaring in the after-market session, with a initial jump of more than 10% implying a gain of upwards of about $200B in market value when the stock opens tomorrow morning.

Google’s parent company crushed earnings expectations, initiated a cash dividend for the first time, and authorized a fresh $70B in share repurchases for good measure. The market likes it very much.

Business

No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

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Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/24/24

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business
Rani Molla
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Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

Job switchers and stayers

The FTC is banning non-compete clauses

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales