Monday Nov.15, 2021

🌎 The UN’s climate miss

The price is not ripe [Yuri_Arcurs/E+ via Getty Images]
The price is not ripe [Yuri_Arcurs/E+ via Getty Images]

Hey Snackers,

Amid the shortage of everything, finally some good news: the Great Avocado Surplus of 2021. Australia is swimming in avocados after stay-at-home mandates kept people from ordering smashed avo on toast at brunch.

Stocks barely budged to kick off the week, but gold prices hit a five-month high as investors started seeking more protection from inflation. Refresher: in October, consumer prices soared at the fastest pace in 31 years.

Temp

Countries' UN climate pledges underwhelm, but financial giants vow to prioritize green efforts

"We'll always have Paris"... The classic "Casablanca" quote isn't landing for global leaders. The UN's 26th annual climate summit just wrapped up in Glasgow. Lawmakers, biz execs, and activists from 200 countries met to help keep the 2015 Paris Agreement alive. Read: the target to cap global warming at 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) above pre-industrial levels. While the UN said the world is "way off track" in stopping rising temps, some new pledges could help:

  • 100+ countries vowed to slash methane emission levels by 30% by 2030, led by the US and EU.
  • 100 countries representing 85% of the world's forests agreed to end and reverse deforestation by 2030, backed by $19.2B in public and private funding.
  • India, the second most populous country after China, vowed to hit net-zero emissions by 2070 and use 50% renewable energy in its mix by 2030.
  • China, Earth's largest polluter, unexpectedly promised to finalize a plan to reduce its methane emissions this decade (without concrete deets).
  • Ford, GM, and Volvo committed to phasing out fossil-fueled vehicles by 2040, as did some countries. The US, China, and Germany skipped the pledge.

The private sector steps in... While countries' pledges underwhelemed, the global finance industry made new efforts: a coalition of the world's largest financial firms that together control $130T in assets committed to using their $$ to hit net zero emissions targets in their investments by 2050.

  • The alliance: 450 banks, insurers, and asset managers across 45 countries — including heavyweights like JPMorgan Chase, Citi, and BlackRock.
  • Critics say the pledge falls short because it doesn't commit investors to stop putting money into fossil fuels – and it's non-binding. But it does show a broad commitment by financial firms to have emissions slashed in companies they invest in.

Global accountability is hard... It’s easier for individual governments to hold their citizens accountable, and vice versa. It’s much harder for countries to hold other countries accountable, especially when power is lopsided. After the summit, many countries still remain at odds. And pledges made have fallen dangerously short of the 1.5 °C target. Global temps are estimated to rise anywhere from 1.8 °C to 2.7 °C by the end of the century, which the UN says would be “catastrophic." For real change to happen, both governments and corporations need to step up.

Zoom Out

Stories we’re watching...

Bringing home the bacon... just got pricier. Consumer prices jumped 6.2% in October from last year, the largest spike in 31 years. TV prices were up 10%, bacon was up 20%, used cars rose 26%, and gas prices soared 50% (#PumpAnxiety). Stimulus cash triggered a fast rebound in consumer demand. But supply and labor bottlenecks are making it hard to meet demand, which drives up prices. If Americans keep expecting inflation to remain high, price tags could be steep even after the logjams ease. We’ll see if the Fed’s pullback on bond-buying helps cool the economy.

Vax access expands... 900K kids got vaxxed last week after Covid shots were approved for US children, and Pfizer asked the FDA to approve boosters for all adults. Regeneron said its antibody drug reduced the risk of Covid by 82%, which could make it an option for immunocompromised people. But not everyone’s vax-cited: Trade groups representing UPS, Disney, and Fidelity say Biden’s plan to make any biz with 100+ workers require vaccination or testing by January is too expensive. And 24 states threatened to sue to block it.

Events

Coming up this week...

Chip the Switch... Chip titan Nvidia makes graphics cards for everything from laptops to gaming consoles, like the Nintendo Switch. Last quarter, Nvidia notched record sales, with nearly half coming from gaming. Now, Nvidia’s focused on growing AI and its data-center biz, which powers half the world’s servers and touts customers like Microsoft and Amazon. Despite the (still happening) global chip shortage, investors hope Nvidia’s robust supply chain and demand for its cutting-edge tech will boost its earnings on Wednesday.

Still waiting for my Halloween costume... US holiday spending is expected to reach a record $800B+ this season. That's good news for go-to retailers like Macy’s, Walmart, Target, and Kohl's, which all report earnings this week. Problem: national worker shortage. Last week, Macy’s joined Walmart and Target in boosting its minimum wage to $15/hour and offering employee tuition benefits. Meanwhile, Kohl’s is offering sign-up bonuses of $100 to $400. But higher incentives = higher costs. We’ll see if that hits retailers’ bottom line. Macy’s expects holiday benefits to cost an additional $35M over the next four years.

ICYMI

Last week's highlights...

  • Streak: Digital payments company Paytm went public through its parent company in India’s largest IPO, the latest in the country’s tech boom.
  • Mickey: Disney is "aggressively" exploring sports-betting content through its ESPN brand, as streaming growth slows. Disney’s biz still isn’t back to pre-pandemic levels.
  • Poll: Elon Musk asked his 63M Twitter followers if he should sell $21B worth of Tesla shares to pay taxes, continuing a national debate around taxing billionaires.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Innovate: The 100 best inventions of 2021, according to Time — from hands-free shoes to interactive workout mirrors and fresh pasta shapes.
  • Race: Visualizing the race for electric-car dominance, from Tesla to Ford. FYI: EVs could outsell gas cars by 2040.
  • Ship: Drop shipping, explained. How a decades-old business model became part of a side-hustle trend that affects nearly every online shopper.

This Week

  • Monday: Earnings expected from Tyson, Warner Music Group, WeWork, Lucid, and Esports Entertainment Group
  • Tuesday: October retail sales. Earnings expected from Walmart, Home Depot, Aramark, Dolby Labs, and Advance Auto Parts
  • Wednesday: Earnings expected from La-Z-Boy, NVIDIA, Cisco, Lowe's, Target, Baidu, Bath & Body Works, and Sonos
  • Thursday: Jobless claims. Earnings expected from Intuit, Workday, Williams-Sonoma, Macy's, Kohl's, Petco, and Victoria’s Secret
  • Friday: Earnings expected from Foot Locker

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Ford, GM, Pfizer, Walmart, Tesla, Disney, Microsoft, Warner Music Group, and Amazon

ID: 1921318

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Do you want to run the State Department of McDonald’s?

A couple of days ago, a tweet making fun at McDonald’s hiring a “Manager for Diplomatic Relations” went viral.

At first glance, the idea that McDonald’s, a burger franchise known for its double quarter pounders and perfectly salted fries, is expanding its diplomatic influence with policy makers in Foggy Bottom and the world at large sounds comical. But it’s actually crucial.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

Nuke stocks up on AI excitement

For most of humanity, the thought of “nuclear-powered AI” sends a shiver down the spine. But the stock market is all for it! Just check out the list of top performing S&P 500 stocks this year. Just behind established AI plays — Super Micro Computer and Nvidia, you’ll find Constellation Energy, the largest operator of nuclear plants in the U.S. NRG Energy, which also operates nuclear plants, isn’t far behind. Bloomberg reports that CEO of power distributor Exelon — which spun off Constellation in 2022 — says in the Chicago area alone, AI could drive a 900% jump in demand for energy from data centers.

Tech

China makes Apple remove WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram from app store

In its latest move to restrict foreign tech, Beijing has ordered Apple to remove a number of popular messaging apps from its app store there, including WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram.

These apps had only been available through VPNs but were popular nonetheless, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Business

Tesla's recall reveals just how bad Cybertruck delivery numbers have been

Thanks to a recall of Tesla’s Cybertrucks, we now know how many of them have actually been delivered: 3,878 since the EV company began releasing them to customers in November.

In its third and fourth quarter earnings report, Tesla said that its current Cybertruck production capacity was greater than 125,000 a year. Musk had previously said he expected to produce 250,000 Cybertrucks a year by 2025.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

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Markets

Cocoa hits $11,000

Cocoa prices are breaking records on an almost daily basis — with cocoa futures closing at (another) all-time high of $11,020 per metric ton yesterday.

That’s up 158% since the start of the year, and over 4x on the typical prices seen in 2022 — as crop production continues to fall short of demand.

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices
Power

World out of balance: It costs the US 3¢ to make 1 penny

The cost of producing a US penny rose 13% in fiscal 2023 to 3.07 cents. Yes, it means that Uncle Sam loses more than 2 cents for every cent it produces. (And no, you can’t make it up on volume.)

For the record, that’s the 18th straight year the penny’s face value has been below production costs, fueling calls for abolishing the lowest value denomination coin. Canada started to phase out the penny in 2013, joining Australia, Brazil, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, and Israel, according to Smithsonian Magazine.

3.07¢
Business
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Netflix is going to stop sharing subscriber numbers

After posting subscriber numbers that beat expectations today, Netflix says it’s no longer going to share those numbers starting in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a big deal since subscriber numbers have long been one of the main metrics that investors have looked at.

“In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential,” its shareholders letter read. “But now we’re generating very substantial profit and free cash flow.” The company said that it will focus on revenue and operating margin as its main financial metrics, while it will look at time spent on the platform to gauge customer satisfaction.

Another way to read this? They’ve hit market saturation and just aren’t going to be growing that much anymore, and they thought they’d end on a good note. Going forward they’re focusing on how to get more money out of the customers they do have.

They’re doing so by cracking down on password sharing and charging for extra members. They’re also pushing people to ad tiers, which are more profitable than non-ad tiers.

“Scaling ads to become a more meaningful contributor to our business in ‘25 and beyond,” Netflix said.

Netflix’s ads membership grew another 65% in Q1 over the previous one, after rising 70% the quarter before, and 40% of signups in ad markets continue to be for those ad plans.