Friday May.17, 2019

The un-Pinnable stock

"_I just want to Pin it_"
"_I just want to Pin it_"

Hey Snackers,

Reminder: Plan the excuses today. An estimated 10.7M people are expected to call in sick after Sunday's Game of Thrones finale.

Markets are focused on rebounding from this week's 2nd worst day of the year — The Dow jumped over 200 points Thursday.

Debut

Pinterest's inspiration-less first-ever earnings report

"Where to hide from investors"... We actually found a good Pinterest board for exactly that. In its first-ever earnings report since last month's IPO, Pinterest found a theme: slowing growth. Profits, revenues, user growth. All slowed. Then shares of the social-network-for-curating-nice-things dropped 15%. Here are 2 numbers to un-Pin.

  • 3X: That's how many times larger the $41M loss was than analysts expected.
  • 291M: That's how many Pinners there are out there showing off very nice/symmetrical pictures of anything.

Fewer pins, more promos... Your Snacks team compared Pinterest's average revenue per user — aka the number of ads users see as they scroll for the ideal guest bathroom wallpaper — to Facebook's.

  • Pinterest made $0.73 of revenue per user last quarter.
  • Facebook was almost 10-times that at $6.42.
  • The key to profits for Pinterest: Add more ads mid-scroll without overly annoying customers (80% of them are American moms between 18-64).

This is the nicer social media company... It's nice by not showing users as many ads as other social networks do. And it's nice by not having as much misinformation/hateful news-focused content as Twitter, Facebook, Youtube, and other platforms do. One of those is nice for investors, the other not so much.

Team

The new era of video game wars: Sony and Microsoft shake hands

Mutual hatred... is a powerful motivator #WhiteWalkers. Long-time enemies Sony and Microsoft battled admirably in the multi-phase Playstation vs. Xbox video game wars of our youth. Now they're truc-ing: An "unusual" partnership on cloud computing, the crucial engine that powers modern, online gaming.

It's hairy out there... A few major enemies forced this frenemy-ship:

  • "The tool kit": Amazon's Lumberyard lets anyone make their own games on its very-much-leading Amazon Web Services platform.
  • "The Holy Grail": That's what they're calling Stadia — It lets anyone, anywhere begin playing big games sans gaming console.

Play anything on any device... That's the future of gaming, according to Microsoft. So if a surprise partnership with Sony can help it achieve that in the $130B video game market, Microsoft is down to team up.

Born

Silicon Valley just got a new stock exchange: The Long Term Stock Exchange

Congratulations. It's a beautiful healthy... platform for securities trading. America just birthed its 14th stock exchange, the uncreatively named Long Term Stock Exchange. LTSE is just as regulated as siblings New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq (it was approved by the SEC Friday and expects to open this year), but it's mission-oriented: It wants to fix "short-termism."

Quarter's over. On to the next quarter... Currently, public companies must calculate, prep, and announce their earnings reports every three months. Focusing on short-term results only benefits short-term focused traders — Hedge funds and activist investors. Instead, LTSE introduces 3 rules to encourage long-term thinking:

  1. Seniority-based voting: Older shares get more voting power. So the more in it for the long haul you are = the more power you have as a shareholder.
  2. Tie exec pay to long-term metrics: Limit CEOs from floating away on golden parachutes.
  3. No forecasts for quarterly earnings: None. Investors should care about 3 years, not 3 months.

This is Silicon Valley's farm for unicorns... You've seen the volatility of recent tech IPOs Uber, Lyft, and Pinterest. Long Term Stock Exchange wants to give companies the benefits of public markets (raise $$, trade your stock!), while cutting the negatives (no sacraficing long-term health for short-term profits). It's crafted for Silicon Valley's finest.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Midas: Goldman makes its biggest acquisition in nearly 20 years: A wealth management firm
  • Fancy: Burberry is closing 10% of its stores worldwide to regain its exclusivity
  • Spared: Snap jumps 7% after Instagram kills its Snapchat clone, Instagram Direct
  • Ranked: Fortune announces its annual Fortune 500 list
  • Protein: Walmart's earning reveal a 37% jump in ecommerce sales powered by grocery orders
  • Unplugged: Nvidia makes the chips fueling data centers — now it says its clients are putting a "pause" on investing in those data centers

Friday

Disclosure: An author of this Snacks owns shares of Amazon and Sony.

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Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

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Tech

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

$127

The average bitcoin-transaction fee hit an all-time high of $127 on Friday.

The temporary spike came as the halving cut miner rewards and traders forked over huge sums of BTC (skewing the average) to be included in the first post-halving block.

Adding fuel to the fee fire was the launch of Runes, a new protocol that lets developers create memecoins on top of the bitcoin blockchain. The debut was so popular that fees popped as traders fought for limited block space.

2024-04-22-1-america-importing-less-from-china

The US now buys more goods from Mexico than from China

Chinese imports are down as companies begin to "nearshore" in Mexico

2024-04-22-paramount-global-site

Multiple bidders want to buy Paramount Global’s sprawling media assets

Junk

How much of the world’s plastic is recycled? Only a fraction

Landfills still account for the majority of plastic disposal

Markets

Stock market gains for 2024 cut by more than half

All of the sudden, the stock market seems to be running out of steam.

There’s no big mystery here. War in the Mideast has pushed up oil prices, which will help keep inflation elevated. And annoyingly high price increases in March have already pushed the June Fed rate cuts the market was banking on farther into the uncertain future.

All that’s added up to higher interest rates and lower stock prices.