Monday Oct.11, 2021

🌳 The Gov v. greenwashing

This storm looks expensive [Rapideye/E+ via Getty Images]
This storm looks expensive [Rapideye/E+ via Getty Images]

Hey Snackers,

White Vans and green jumpsuits: Possibly the hottest new fashion trend, also Netflix’s “Squid Game” uniform. Vans sales have jumped 7,800% since the show’s debut.

Stocks dipped today, while oil got gassed up: US oil prices climbed 1.5%, breaking $80 a barrel for the first time since 2014. Driving the surge: A global natural-gas shortage has some investors thinking that power plants could switch their fuel from gas to oil.

Scrub

The Green Sheet: The Fed and SEC plant seeds for better corporate climate reporting

Climate-change stress… is getting financial. Risks related to climate change could affect global markets in a big way, and US officials are taking note. Last week, the Fed moved closer to launching climate-risk safety checkups. And the SEC is trying to amp up rules for corporate climate reporting. The disclosures could change company valuations, and how investors view entire industries. The details:

  • Climate checkup: The Fed wants to require Big Banks to tally climate risks — aka how much $$ is threatened by intensifying wildfires and floods.
  • Climate filings: The SEC wants public companies to share how climate change could affect their business (think: fossil-fueled lawsuits), demand for carbon-heavy products, and what they’re spending to stay compliant.
  • Targets: The SEC might also make companies share five-year plans for cutting emissions, plus net-zero goals.

Late to the climate rally… The US is playing catch-up with countries like England and France, which have already set corporate climate-reporting standards. Meanwhile, companies have been making their own rules:

  • Neutralize: Tech giants like Amazon and Microsoft made plans to go carbon-neutral. Google says it’s been carbon-neutral since 2007.
  • Transition: Oil companies Exxon, Shell, and BP have made multibillion-dollar plans to shift to renewable energy.
  • Clean-vest: Investment firms like BlackRock have prioritized renewables to de-risk funds.

Green filter... About 90% of S&P 500 companies share voluntary climate reports. But they’re usually not regulated, and sometimes “greenwashed” to inflate progress:

  • Facts: Most Fortune 500 companies have emissions targets, but only 20% are based on science.
  • Dally: Amazon committed to carbon neutrality by 2040 in 2019, but its emissions have actually grown 15%+ annually since.
  • Lip service: Companies like Costco have said they want to reduce their footprints, but haven’t set formal targets yet.

Goodbye, greenwashing… Because climate accounting is about to be clearer. Standardized climate reporting through the Fed and SEC will likely make it harder for companies to fudge their environmental impact. US officials say better reporting will drive more capital to greener industries, and help countries reach net-zero emissions. Big money is at stake too: Extreme weather has cost the US $1.9T since 1980, and $95B last year alone.

Correction: In the original version of this story published Monday, Oct. 11, we misstated that Netflix had not yet set targets to reduce its carbon footprint. The company has set targets, which you can read about here and here.

Zoom Out

Stories we’re watching...

Leaky roof… Last week the Senate raised the $28T debt ceiling by $480B, preventing a historic and “catastrophic” default, for now. Lawmakers will need to go back to the drawing board to make a long-term plan in December. One solution: The President could order the Treasury to mint a trillion-dollar platinum coin to help offset the nation’s debt. The idea emerged a decade ago but was nixed over inflation worries. TBD if it will happen.

Lifting off... Flights to Cabo still haven’t returned to pre-pandemic levels, but US airline travel is poised to rev up during the holidays. United Airlines said it planned to offer 91% as many domestic flights in December as it did the same month in 2019. Delta said US business traffic is starting to grow, and next year could be its best year since before the pandemic. Flight searches for holiday trips are also up 16% compared to 2019. We’ll see if Delta concerns change airlines’ outlook.

Events

Coming up this week...

Banks’ big week... Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo all report this week. Earlier this year, banks profited from strong consumer spending (thanks, stimmy checks) and by moving billions of “rainy day funds” to reserves. Goldman Sachs and other top IPO underwriters have benefited from a record year for market debuts. Now, investors are watching loan revenue from products like mortgages. Loan growth has been stagnant, and makes up more than half of the banking industry’s revenue.

Dough-eyed… America’s biggest pizza chain saw sales skyrocket during lockdown when more people munched from their couch. Domino’s sales growth has slowed down this year, but the chain is still growing sales in places where Covid restrictions are lifting. Small price hikes for delivery fees and menu items have helped. When Domino’s reports on Thursday, we’ll see whether the labor shortage impacts results (the chain hires its own delivery drivers), and if the pizza fever is still going strong as more cities reopen.

ICYMI

Last week's highlights...

  1. Global: Netflix’s South Korean hit “Squid Game” didn’t become the top TV show in 90 countries by accident — it’s part of the ’Flix’s strategy to go global.
  2. Levi’s: The denim icon's sales blew past pre-pandemic levels last quarter thanks to “casualization” (think: baggy), plus a sturdy supply chain behind the seams.
  3. Robotaxi: GM isn’t only doubling down on EVs to catch up to Tesla —– it’s launching a robotaxi fleet in a push to zoom past it.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Breakthrough: A new “pacemaker for the brain” could help treat severe depression. Magnet to download brain activity included.
  • Pivot: Burnout and Zoom fatigue: Why some millennials are quitting their jobs without a plan B.
  • Mine: See all the metals we pull out of the Earth each year in one picture. Spoiler: There’s tons of iron.

This Week

  • Monday: Indigenous Peoples’ Day
  • Tuesday: Earnings expected from Fastenal
  • Wednesday: September Consumer Price Index. Earnings expected from JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, Infosys, Progressive, and Delta
  • Thursday: Weekly jobless claims. Earnings expected from UnitedHealth, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, US Bancorp, Walgreens, Domino’s, and Del Taco
  • Friday: September retail sales. Earnings expected from Goldman Sachs, JB Hunt, Prologis, and PNC

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Google, Netflix

ID: 1869667

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Do you want to run the State Department of McDonald’s?

A couple of days ago, a tweet making fun at McDonald’s hiring a “Manager for Diplomatic Relations” went viral.

At first glance, the idea that McDonald’s, a burger franchise known for its double quarter pounders and perfectly salted fries, is expanding its diplomatic influence with policy makers in Foggy Bottom and the world at large sounds comical. But it’s actually crucial.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

Nuke stocks up on AI excitement

For most of humanity, the thought of “nuclear-powered AI” sends a shiver down the spine. But the stock market is all for it! Just check out the list of top performing S&P 500 stocks this year. Just behind established AI plays — Super Micro Computer and Nvidia, you’ll find Constellation Energy, the largest operator of nuclear plants in the U.S. NRG Energy, which also operates nuclear plants, isn’t far behind. Bloomberg reports that CEO of power distributor Exelon — which spun off Constellation in 2022 — says in the Chicago area alone, AI could drive a 900% jump in demand for energy from data centers.

Tech

China makes Apple remove WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram from app store

In its latest move to restrict foreign tech, Beijing has ordered Apple to remove a number of popular messaging apps from its app store there, including WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram.

These apps had only been available through VPNs but were popular nonetheless, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Business

Tesla's recall reveals just how bad Cybertruck delivery numbers have been

Thanks to a recall of Tesla’s Cybertrucks, we now know how many of them have actually been delivered: 3,878 since the EV company began releasing them to customers in November.

In its third and fourth quarter earnings report, Tesla said that its current Cybertruck production capacity was greater than 125,000 a year. Musk had previously said he expected to produce 250,000 Cybertrucks a year by 2025.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

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Markets

Cocoa hits $11,000

Cocoa prices are breaking records on an almost daily basis — with cocoa futures closing at (another) all-time high of $11,020 per metric ton yesterday.

That’s up 158% since the start of the year, and over 4x on the typical prices seen in 2022 — as crop production continues to fall short of demand.

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices
Power

World out of balance: It costs the US 3¢ to make 1 penny

The cost of producing a US penny rose 13% in fiscal 2023 to 3.07 cents. Yes, it means that Uncle Sam loses more than 2 cents for every cent it produces. (And no, you can’t make it up on volume.)

For the record, that’s the 18th straight year the penny’s face value has been below production costs, fueling calls for abolishing the lowest value denomination coin. Canada started to phase out the penny in 2013, joining Australia, Brazil, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, and Israel, according to Smithsonian Magazine.

3.07¢
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Netflix is going to stop sharing subscriber numbers

After posting subscriber numbers that beat expectations today, Netflix says it’s no longer going to share those numbers starting in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a big deal since subscriber numbers have long been one of the main metrics that investors have looked at.

“In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential,” its shareholders letter read. “But now we’re generating very substantial profit and free cash flow.” The company said that it will focus on revenue and operating margin as its main financial metrics, while it will look at time spent on the platform to gauge customer satisfaction.

Another way to read this? They’ve hit market saturation and just aren’t going to be growing that much anymore, and they thought they’d end on a good note. Going forward they’re focusing on how to get more money out of the customers they do have.

They’re doing so by cracking down on password sharing and charging for extra members. They’re also pushing people to ad tiers, which are more profitable than non-ad tiers.

“Scaling ads to become a more meaningful contributor to our business in ‘25 and beyond,” Netflix said.

Netflix’s ads membership grew another 65% in Q1 over the previous one, after rising 70% the quarter before, and 40% of signups in ad markets continue to be for those ad plans.