Friday Jul.16, 2021

🏩 The Big Bank theory

_Mood: Loan loss reserves, unleashed [Westend61 via GettyImages]_
_Mood: Loan loss reserves, unleashed [Westend61 via GettyImages]_

Hey Snackers,

Fleets are going the way of the Quibi: After barely a year, Twitter is shutting down its Stories feature, whose life proved to be as fleeting as its name. Cause of death: "low usage."

Jobless claims hit a new pandemic low, and New York manufacturing activity notched a July record. The techy Nasdaq index dipped yesterday, as investors shifted into stocks that tend to move in tandem with the health of the economy (aka: cyclical stocks).

EDM

Banks profited thanks to reserves, but their win is really about the economy

Take it to the bank... Big Banks came through with expectation-beating earnings and booming profits. While the economy roared back to life last quarter, banks were busy making loans, collecting interest, and closing deals. That flurry of activity translated into big profits:

  • Goldman Sachs made a profit of $5.5B, compared to $373M in the same quarter last year.
  • JPMorgan Chase saw its profits more than double from last year to $12B.
  • Citi's quarterly profit more than 5X'd to $6.2B.

Bankers dropping bangers... Your quarterly reminder that Goldman's CEO is an EDM DJ. Last year, banks added billions in rainy day funds to their reserves. 17M Americans were newly unemployed, so banks set aside $$$ to prep for loan losses. Think: defaults on mortgages, credit cards, and biz loans. But economic healing happened faster than expected, so banks released those loan loss emergency funds.

  • That translated into profit. Chase got a $2.3B boost to its bottom line by releasing $3B in reserves. Citi got a $1.1B boost from reserves.
  • Record i-banking activity helped, too. Most of Goldman's growth was driven by its investment banking biz, which had its best second quarter ever.

A growing economy is a silver bullet for banks... and other cyclical stocks – aka: shares of companies that are closely tied to the health of the economy. Last year, banks were diving into fallout shelters, prepping for worst-case scenario bankruptcies and defaults. This year, banks are undoing that emergency prep. A key reason: the US economy is expected to grow at the fastest pace since the '80s this year. More money in American pockets means more $$$ in the coffers of US banks.

Doc

UnitedHealth sees more revenue, but less profit
 and it doesn’t really want to see you

iCal it so I know it's real
 Your backlog of doc appointments. As patients across the US rekindled their relationships with their doctors, UnitedHealth's quarterly revenue jumped 13% from last year. But profits at America's largest health insurer took a post-pandemic hit.

  • Cancel the checkup: As people avoided waiting rooms and germy hotspots last year, UnitedHealth had its most profitable quarter ever. You didn't use the insurance benefits you pay for monthly — so your canceled visit went straight into United's pocket
  • Fit me in ASAP: Now that people are getting their weird bumps checked out, UnitedHealth has to foot the bill. Profit plunged last quarter thanks to all those expensive doc dates.

Re-United
 and it feels so "meh." Most industries are thrilled to see customers return — that’s not necessarily the case for health insurers. Insurers encourage preventive visits, which help avoid expensive – and dangerous – problems like heart disease or cancer. But they might prefer not to see customers go in for non-urgent visits like check-ups, and even pay big bucks to keep them away. That's why...

  • Telehealth: UnitedHealth expanded its telehealth offerings, which are cheaper than IRL appts, to all 50 states during the pandemic. Competing insurers Oscar, Amazon Care, and Kaiser Permanente also expanded virtual-first care plans this year.
  • Wearables: UnitedHealth also offers customers free Apple Watches or Fitbits
 if they get their steps in.

Sometimes, not spending is good business
 and can help boost the bottom line. The health insurance biz has a classic “do less” model: Just like Olive Garden doesn’t really want you to spend that gift certificate, health insurers often make less money the more their customers use their services. Ditto for car insurance companies.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Crunchy: Chip giant Intel is reportedly in talks to make its biggest acquisition ever with chip-maker GlobalFoundries, which it could buy for $30B.
  • Burned: Johnson & Johnson chose to recall several Neutrogena and Aveeno spray sunscreens over a possible cancer risk.
  • Checks: As boosted child tax credit payments start to reach families, some moms see them as a road out of poverty.
  • Treasure: Economist Nellie Liang was confirmed as the Treasury’s undersecretary for domestic finance. First up on her to-do list: manage the ginormous federal debt.
  • Shibad: Dogecoin dropped 6% after co-creators Jackson Palmer and Billy Markus publicly criticized the crypto industry.
  • Rolling: Self-driving vehicle startup Aurora Innovation is going public via SPAC merger at a $13B valuation. It's promising autonomous vehicles by 2023.

Friday

  • Earnings expected from Charles Schwab and State Street

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Chase

ID: 1724710

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Nicolai Tangen, the CEO who holds the purse strings of Norway’s $1.6 trillion sovereign wealth fund, thinks that his fellow Europeans don’t quite stack up to US employees when it comes to pure hustle, telling the Financial Times in a recent interview that there is a difference in “the general level of ambition” and that “the Americans just work harder”. 

Tangen has clearly been putting his money — or more specifically Norway’s — where his mouth is: the sprawling Norwegian oil fund, now one of the largest investors on the planet, has been pumping more capital into its US holdings in the past decade, while decreasing its investment into European entities.

The troublesome news for our European readers? Tangen might be onto something. According to data from the OECD, American workers are putting in almost 60 hours a year more than the weighted average for OECD nations
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Hours worked

Tangen has clearly been putting his money — or more specifically Norway’s — where his mouth is: the sprawling Norwegian oil fund, now one of the largest investors on the planet, has been pumping more capital into its US holdings in the past decade, while decreasing its investment into European entities.

The troublesome news for our European readers? Tangen might be onto something. According to data from the OECD, American workers are putting in almost 60 hours a year more than the weighted average for OECD nations
 a benchmark that workers from countries in the European Union are already ~180 hours shy of.

Hours worked
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$70B

Alphabet shares are soaring in the after-market session, with a initial jump of more than 10% implying a gain of upwards of about $200B in market value when the stock opens tomorrow morning.

Google’s parent company crushed earnings expectations, initiated a cash dividend for the first time, and authorized a fresh $70B in share repurchases for good measure. The market likes it very much.

Business
Rani Molla
4/25/24

No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

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Meta exhaustingly tries to merge the metaverse and AI

Gonna have to rename the company... again

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