Friday Jul.16, 2021

🏦 The Big Bank theory

_Mood: Loan loss reserves, unleashed [Westend61 via GettyImages]_
_Mood: Loan loss reserves, unleashed [Westend61 via GettyImages]_

Hey Snackers,

Fleets are going the way of the Quibi: After barely a year, Twitter is shutting down its Stories feature, whose life proved to be as fleeting as its name. Cause of death: "low usage."

Jobless claims hit a new pandemic low, and New York manufacturing activity notched a July record. The techy Nasdaq index dipped yesterday, as investors shifted into stocks that tend to move in tandem with the health of the economy (aka: cyclical stocks).

EDM

Banks profited thanks to reserves, but their win is really about the economy

Take it to the bank... Big Banks came through with expectation-beating earnings and booming profits. While the economy roared back to life last quarter, banks were busy making loans, collecting interest, and closing deals. That flurry of activity translated into big profits:

  • Goldman Sachs made a profit of $5.5B, compared to $373M in the same quarter last year.
  • JPMorgan Chase saw its profits more than double from last year to $12B.
  • Citi's quarterly profit more than 5X'd to $6.2B.

Bankers dropping bangers... Your quarterly reminder that Goldman's CEO is an EDM DJ. Last year, banks added billions in rainy day funds to their reserves. 17M Americans were newly unemployed, so banks set aside $$$ to prep for loan losses. Think: defaults on mortgages, credit cards, and biz loans. But economic healing happened faster than expected, so banks released those loan loss emergency funds.

  • That translated into profit. Chase got a $2.3B boost to its bottom line by releasing $3B in reserves. Citi got a $1.1B boost from reserves.
  • Record i-banking activity helped, too. Most of Goldman's growth was driven by its investment banking biz, which had its best second quarter ever.

A growing economy is a silver bullet for banks... and other cyclical stocks – aka: shares of companies that are closely tied to the health of the economy. Last year, banks were diving into fallout shelters, prepping for worst-case scenario bankruptcies and defaults. This year, banks are undoing that emergency prep. A key reason: the US economy is expected to grow at the fastest pace since the '80s this year. More money in American pockets means more $$$ in the coffers of US banks.

Doc

UnitedHealth sees more revenue, but less profit… and it doesn’t really want to see you

iCal it so I know it's real… Your backlog of doc appointments. As patients across the US rekindled their relationships with their doctors, UnitedHealth's quarterly revenue jumped 13% from last year. But profits at America's largest health insurer took a post-pandemic hit.

  • Cancel the checkup: As people avoided waiting rooms and germy hotspots last year, UnitedHealth had its most profitable quarter ever. You didn't use the insurance benefits you pay for monthly — so your canceled visit went straight into United's pocket
  • Fit me in ASAP: Now that people are getting their weird bumps checked out, UnitedHealth has to foot the bill. Profit plunged last quarter thanks to all those expensive doc dates.

Re-United… and it feels so "meh." Most industries are thrilled to see customers return — that’s not necessarily the case for health insurers. Insurers encourage preventive visits, which help avoid expensive – and dangerous – problems like heart disease or cancer. But they might prefer not to see customers go in for non-urgent visits like check-ups, and even pay big bucks to keep them away. That's why...

  • Telehealth: UnitedHealth expanded its telehealth offerings, which are cheaper than IRL appts, to all 50 states during the pandemic. Competing insurers Oscar, Amazon Care, and Kaiser Permanente also expanded virtual-first care plans this year.
  • Wearables: UnitedHealth also offers customers free Apple Watches or Fitbits… if they get their steps in.

Sometimes, not spending is good business… and can help boost the bottom line. The health insurance biz has a classic “do less” model: Just like Olive Garden doesn’t really want you to spend that gift certificate, health insurers often make less money the more their customers use their services. Ditto for car insurance companies.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Crunchy: Chip giant Intel is reportedly in talks to make its biggest acquisition ever with chip-maker GlobalFoundries, which it could buy for $30B.
  • Burned: Johnson & Johnson chose to recall several Neutrogena and Aveeno spray sunscreens over a possible cancer risk.
  • Checks: As boosted child tax credit payments start to reach families, some moms see them as a road out of poverty.
  • Treasure: Economist Nellie Liang was confirmed as the Treasury’s undersecretary for domestic finance. First up on her to-do list: manage the ginormous federal debt.
  • Shibad: Dogecoin dropped 6% after co-creators Jackson Palmer and Billy Markus publicly criticized the crypto industry.
  • Rolling: Self-driving vehicle startup Aurora Innovation is going public via SPAC merger at a $13B valuation. It's promising autonomous vehicles by 2023.

Friday

  • Earnings expected from Charles Schwab and State Street

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Chase

ID: 1724710

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Latest Stories

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/23/24

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.