Tuesday Aug.04, 2020

🎵 Microsoft wants TikTok

_Microsoft: "How to Lose a Global Superpower in 45 Days"_
_Microsoft: "How to Lose a Global Superpower in 45 Days"_

Hey Snackers,

A 17-year-old from Tampa has been accused of masterminding the massive Twitter hack. The teen used celeb handles (like those of Elon Musk, Joe Biden, and Kanye) to orchestrate a high-profile Bitcoin scam. Wonder how that'll look between "Conversational French" and "Ultimate Frisbee MVP" on the college application.

The market ticked up yesterday and the tech-heavy Nasdaq index soared to an all-time high on stock gains from heavyweights Apple and Microsoft.

Acquire

Microsoft is trying to buy TikTok's US operations (with a 45-day deadline)

Lots to TikTok about... The video sharing phenom owned by Chinese Bytedance has faced a torrent of scrutiny over its China ties. In June, India (aka the world's 2nd most populous country) fully banned TikTok over national security concerns. In July, President Trump considered banning TikTok in the US on concerns that American data could be passed to the Chinese government.

  • On Friday, Trump said he will ban TikTok (the Committee on Foreign Investment has broad powers over foreign-owned companies). Out of TikTok's ~800M users, 100M are US-based.
  • On Sunday, Microsoft confirmed its rumored talks to buy TikTok's US operations. Trump is reportedly on board, but with big stipulations.

How to lose a country in 45 days... Microsoft is giving off Kate Hudson vibes. Trump reportedly gave Microsoft 45 days to secure a deal with Bytedance. By September 15, Microsoft has to prove that it can move American TikTok data to the US and separate TikTok from Bytedance's access (aka, cut China out). If the acquisition goes through, Microsoft would own and operate TikTok in the US, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.

  • For Trump, letting Microsoft buy TikTok is better than igniting the wrath of 100M TikTokers with a ban ahead of the November elections.
  • Keeping TikTok could also mean more jobs. TikTok 3X'd its US employees this year, with plans to hire 10K more (it's also a major NYC tenant).

It's not ideal, but there aren't many options... This deal would be making a Big Tech company even bigger. But Microsoft is one of the few with the knowhow and relationships to pull off a highly-regulated acquisition. It's also one of the only companies rich enough to afford the potentially $50B price tag. Besides Xbox and LinkedIn, MSFT hasn't ventured much into the social world. This deal would make the US digital ad market more competitive by creating a rival to Facebook and Google.

Shop

Corona-conomy forces Levi's and other retailers to innovate (or perish)

Haven't felt a jean waistband since March... Levi's sales plunged 62% last quarter because you've been wearing the same sweats for five months. As brick-and-mortar stores shuttered and social outings evaporated, the jean icon's sales went the way of the elephant pant leg. That forced Levi's to accelerate its consumer strategy shift. Our 2 highlights:

  • Same-day delivery: Levi's partnered with Uber to drive your high-waisted shorts to your door, just in time for that last-minute picnic. Curbside pickup is also an option.
  • Fancy ecommerce: Levi's new virtual concierge program lets you have a one-on-one chat with a store associate (from your couch).

It's all about controlling "the experience"... Since Levi's can't control other stores' closures, it's focusing on selling directly through its own stores. That allows it to foster a more premium brand experience (and price up its products).

  • 2020 retail bankruptcies will likely be the highest in a decade: Lord & Taylor is the latest to go bankrupt this year, joining Neiman Marcus, J. Crew, and 40 others.
  • "Experiential Retail" is key to drawing back customers, both virtually and in-store. A great example: Burberry's new "social retail" store, which integrates social media and gaming with your shopping experience.

In an omnichannel world, physical stores are key... An omnichannel sales strategy means seamlessly blending the digital and physical worlds. And Levi's is all about that omnichannel life — that's why its CEO thinks physical stores are still "critical" (Levi’s is opening 70 new ones this year). Levi's is also using its brick-and-mortar shops to quickly send products to consumers — 30% of its ecommerce shipments in May came from stores, not big distribution centers.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Wiped: Clorox sales surged 22% for the quarter on corona-cleaning — the germ-wiping icon promoted president Linda Rendle to CEO.
  • SPAC: E-truck maker Lordstown Motors will go public by merging with special purpose acquisition company DiamondPeak— the SPAC deal values Lordstown at $1.6B.
  • Gassy: Marathon Petroleum sold its Speedway gas stations for $21B in cash to 7-Eleven's Japanese parent company Seven & I.
  • Secured: Google is paying $450M for a 6.6% stake in home security company ADT to help with Nest installation and service.
  • Electrify: Electric vehicle company Nio, aka the "Tesla of China," said July car deliveries jumped 322% compared to last year.

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Tuesday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Microsoft, Sony, and Bitcoin, as well as put options of Disney.

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Latest Stories

Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

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Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/23/24

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

$127

The average bitcoin-transaction fee hit an all-time high of $127 on Friday.

The temporary spike came as the halving cut miner rewards and traders forked over huge sums of BTC (skewing the average) to be included in the first post-halving block.

Adding fuel to the fee fire was the launch of Runes, a new protocol that lets developers create memecoins on top of the bitcoin blockchain. The debut was so popular that fees popped as traders fought for limited block space.