Wednesday Mar.17, 2021

🚗 Operation Overtake Tesla

_Get close to, then overtake_
_Get close to, then overtake_

Hey Snackers,

Happy St. Patty's Day! If you see a neon green river in Chicago, don't be alarmed. If you see a neon green river not in Chicago, please be alarmed.

Stocks pulled back from their Monday records yesterday. Today, all eyes are on the Fed: Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to speak about interest rates (what else?).

PS: We want your Women's History Month SnackFacts! Submit yours here, and we might feature it on our newsletter and/or pod.

Electrify

Volkswagen gears up to challenge Tesla's dominance (with help from its friends)

Flashback to 2015... That's when the EPA outed Volkswagen for programming its cars to pass diesel emissions tests — while they were actually emitting up to 40X more (outside of the tests). After the Dieselgate scandal, VW earned a rep for being the opposite of green. Flashforward to 2021...

  • Volkswagen is tying its fate to electric cars and taking on Tesla. According to its CEO, VW wants to "get close" to "and then overtake" Tesla. Your move, Technoking.

"Power Day"... VW's not-so-subtly titled event to show how it will overtake Tesla with its new electric tech (sorry, Battery Day). Some highlights:

  • Cost-slashing: VW said it'll slash the cost of batteries (the priciest part of EVs) by up to 50% by 2030 — making its EVs cheaper than gas cars.
  • Convenience-boosting: By 2030, it'll slash battery charging time to 12 minutes — on par with how long it takes you to figure out which side of the car your fuel filler is on (every time).
  • Range-soothing: VW says it'll have 18K fast-charging stations across Europe by 2025, to soothe nagging range anxiety (the fear of running out of e-juice in a gassy world).
  • Battery-building: VW is building six battery factories in Europe.

VW is giving a masterclass in delegation... While Tesla tries to do everything itself, VW is going with a partnership strategy. Those battery factories? They're being built alongside suppliers like Sweden's Northvolt. Those 18K charging stations? BP and other companies are providing the electric juice. Volkswagen's EV platform (motor, chassis, etc)? It's sharing with Ford, who plans to use it to build some of its own EVs. In the race to go green, collaboration could be key to scaling faster... and cheaper.

Hike

Higher taxes could be coming for America's wealthy — and companies everywhere

Recheck the checking account... Last week, President Biden's $1.9T stimulus bill passed, and $1.4K checks started rolling out. Now, Biden is turning his attention from distributing trillions to raising taxes... on corporations and the wealthy. This would be the first major tax hike in nearly 30 years. Some of the proposals reportedly being considered:

  • Raising the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%. Trump slashed it to 21% from 35% in 2017.
  • Raising the income tax rate on people making $400K+ per year (less than 10% of total tax payers).
  • Raising the capital-gains tax rate (what you pay when you sell investments at a profit) for people earning at least $1M/year.

Hut, hut, hike... Some of the proposed hikes could hurt US GDP and wages long-term, according to the Tax Foundation (an independent think tank). Theoretically, the more $$$ companies spend on taxes, the less they have for growth and investments. But thanks to tax breaks and loopholes, America’s largest corporations paid an average tax rate of just ~11% on 2018 profits. Tax hike proposals are likely to get serious pushback. So why is Biden doing it?

  • Pay for "Build Back Better": Biden pledged $2T to clean energy innovation, and trillions more to building a modern infrastructure (think: roads, bridges). That could cost ~$7T.
  • Curb the debt: While the $1.9T stimulus was financed entirely by US government IOUs (aka: debt), the BBB plan likely won't be. Higher taxes could help pay for BBB, without adding to the US’ $28T debt.
  • Deliver: Dems have been calling for higher taxes on the rich and corporations. Biden could fulfill his campaign promise of doing that.

Staying competitive is key... For decades, countries have been competing with each other to attract corporate investment for economic growth. The main way to do that: lower taxes for companies. In 2000, more than 55 countries had corporate tax rates above 30% — now, less than 20 do. The global average was 24% in 2018. By raising the rate to 28%, the US could lose corporate activity to other countries. That's why Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is trying to forge an agreement with other countries for a global minimum corporate tax.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Gig: Uber will have to reclassify all UK drivers as workers (with benefits) after losing a major labor battle.
  • Ludick: Dick’s Sporting Goods launches its own men’s athleisure line to rival Lululemon.
  • Lede: Facebook signs a three-year deal to pay Rupert Murdoch's News Corp Australia for its news content.
  • Scoot: E-scooter legend Bird is investing $150M to double its presence across Europe (drivers must be thrilled).
  • Vax: Health authorities and scientists think European governments shouldn't have suspended AstraZeneca's vaccine.
  • SPACial: Digital trading app eToro is going public at a $10.4B valuation by merging with a special purpose acquisition company.

Wednesday

  • Jerome Powell press conference
  • St. Patrick's Day
  • Earnings expected from Lennar

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Uber and Tesla

ID: 1567122

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Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

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Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

$127

The average bitcoin-transaction fee hit an all-time high of $127 on Friday.

The temporary spike came as the halving cut miner rewards and traders forked over huge sums of BTC (skewing the average) to be included in the first post-halving block.

Adding fuel to the fee fire was the launch of Runes, a new protocol that lets developers create memecoins on top of the bitcoin blockchain. The debut was so popular that fees popped as traders fought for limited block space.

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Landfills still account for the majority of plastic disposal

Markets

Stock market gains for 2024 cut by more than half

All of the sudden, the stock market seems to be running out of steam.

There’s no big mystery here. War in the Mideast has pushed up oil prices, which will help keep inflation elevated. And annoyingly high price increases in March have already pushed the June Fed rate cuts the market was banking on farther into the uncertain future.

All that’s added up to higher interest rates and lower stock prices.

Tech
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AI needs so much electricity that tech companies are getting into the energy business

To accommodate tech companies’ pivots to artificial intelligence, tech companies are increasingly investing in ways to power AI’s immense electricity needs.

Most recently, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman invested in Exowatt, a company using solar power to feed data centers, according to the Wall Street Journal.

That’s on the heals of OpenAI partner, Microsoft, working on getting approval for nuclear energy to help power its AI operations. Last year Amazon, which is a major investor in AI company Anthropic, said it invested in more than 100 renewable energy projects, making it the “world’s largest corporate purchaser of renewable energy for the fourth year in a row.”

This can all feel like a bit of spin, as these tech companies move the narrative toward their use of green energy rather than questioning whether they truly need to be consuming so much energy in the first place.

That’s on the heals of OpenAI partner, Microsoft, working on getting approval for nuclear energy to help power its AI operations. Last year Amazon, which is a major investor in AI company Anthropic, said it invested in more than 100 renewable energy projects, making it the “world’s largest corporate purchaser of renewable energy for the fourth year in a row.”

This can all feel like a bit of spin, as these tech companies move the narrative toward their use of green energy rather than questioning whether they truly need to be consuming so much energy in the first place.

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