Wednesday Jan.26, 2022

🎤 Joe Rogan’s Spoti-fiasco

Spotify planting pods in its “Gated Garden” [Kjell Linder via Getty Images]
Spotify planting pods in its “Gated Garden” [Kjell Linder via Getty Images]

Hey Snackers,

RIP to the No. 2 pencil’s greatest foe: The SAT is officially going completely digital starting in 2024. Future high schoolers will never know the anxiety induced by oval bubbles.

Stocks slumped after Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested that he plans to hike rates in March. Both the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 fell, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq closed nearly flat despite a boost from Microsoft — whose shares jumped 3% after reporting strong cloud sales.

JRE

Joe Rogan’s Spotify pod sparks backlash from doctors and Neil Young, as moderation takes center stage

“The Joe Rogan Experience”... just got more complicated. JRE is the world's largest podcast, with an estimated 11M listeners per episode. In 2020, Spotify signed a deal to make the pod Spotify-exclusive for a reported $100M. Now, a viral December episode is drawing fresh criticism:

  • The guest: Rogan interviewed Dr. Robert Malone, a virologist who worked on early mRNA research. Malone is now a Covid vaccine critic, and was Twitter-banned for posting misinfo.
  • The episode: Malone promoted baseless conspiracy theories — from claiming hospitals have financial incentives to diagnose deaths as Covid-related to saying that getting vaxxed is riskier for people who've had Covid.
  • The backlash: 270 medical experts signed a letter asking Spotify to curb misinfo on its platform, citing the Malone episode. On Monday, singer Neil Young demanded that Spotify remove all his music — or remove JRE.

I’m a pod-star, not a doctor... Rogan has said he is not anti-vax, and that he encourages "many" people to get vaccinated, but this isn't the first time he's been criticized for Covid misinfo. Spotify has removed thousands of episodes containing Covid misinfo in the past. It has also reportedly removed 42 JRE episodes, including ones featuring far-right activists — but none related to vaccines. As its pod business booms, critics want clearer moderation policies.

  • $1B+: How much Spotify has splurged on pod-related purchases. Including: The Ringer and Parcast — plus, exclusives like “Call Her Daddy.” Targeted pod ads make up a growing share of Spotify’s $2.5B quarterly revenue.
  • #1: In October, Spotify overtook Apple as the US's biggest pod platform, largely thanks to its "gated garden" strategy.

With great publishing power comes great responsibility… The calls to action were broader than JRE — they were directed at Spotify’s moderation policies (or lack thereof). Unlike many large platforms, Spotify doesn't appear to have a defined misinformation policy, or at least one that’s consistently enforced. Yet moderation will likely become a growing issue for Spotify as its business grows — just as it is for other social and streaming giants.

Pills

Mark Cuban’s Cost Plus wants to make prescription drugs more affordable and transparent

From “Shark Tank” to the aspirin aisle… Celeb investor Mark Cuban launched an online pharmacy designed to lower prices of 100 generic drugs. The Cost Plus Drug Co. aims to simplify healthcare’s complex biz model by cutting out intermediaries and selling drugs for wholesale prices — plus a fixed 15% markup.

  • Drug prices are often shockingly high because of complex negotiations between drugmakers, pharmacies, and health insurers.
  • CP buys drugs wholesale and breaks down their costs on its website. Think: ingredients = $12, manufacturing = $3, profit = $2.10. Thirty pills of a life-saving drug could cost $2.5K at CVS — but $17 at CP.
  • CP doesn’t accept insurance, but it could be a huge help for the 31M Americans without insurance.

Rattling big pill bottles… Nearly 80% of US prescriptions are managed by CVS, Cigna, and UnitedHealth. Critics say pharmacy heavyweights use complex clauses to drive up prices, and regulators are investigating the industry. Several companies are trying to fix healthcare’s pricing problem:

  • Large employers like Walmart, Boeing, Apple, and Microsoft formed a healthcare group last year to ditch big pharmacies and save money.
  • Health startups including Capsule, Roman, Hims & Hers, and GoodRx also offer transparent drug marketplaces that challenge traditional pharmacies.

Price matters, but so does transparency… That’s why companies are pursuing more transparent alternatives to traditional pharma. Cost Plus can’t fully replace pharmacy behemoths (it only sells generic drugs) and its prices may not be lower than competitors’. But CP is building a Texas factory to make its own meds. And if it steals sales from juggernauts like CVS, it could help push the whole industry to become more transparent.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Cream: Unilever, which makes everything from Dove soap to Ben & Jerry’s, said it would split into five divisions (like: beauty, ice cream) to boost sales and cut costs — and slash 1.5K jobs.
  • Green: To reach global net-zero emissions by 2050, the world will have to spend $9.5T annually on low-carbon infrastructure, according to McKinsey — that’s $3.5T more than what’s currently spent.
  • Rev: GM said it would invest $7B in Michigan factories to pump out EVs like electric pickups and hire 4K new workers in the Great Lakes State.
  • Chipped: Nvidia shares fell nearly 5% after Bloomberg reported the chip maker could ditch its $40B purchase of British chip designer Arm over antitrust pressure. Nvidia could lose its $1.25B deposit.
  • Cloudy: Microsoft stock slipped nearly 5% despite reporting a 20% jump in sales and profits, beating expectations. Investors were bummed that cloud-computing sales slowed.

Wednesday

  • Fed monetary policy meeting
  • Earnings expected from: Tesla, Abbott Labs, Intel, AT&T, Boeing, Anthem, and Levi Strauss

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: GM, Pfizer, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Walmart, CVS, Nvidia, Spotify, and Tesla

ID: 2008065

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Latest Stories

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

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Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia
Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

Job switchers and stayers

The FTC is banning non-compete clauses

Why that might make job switching even more lucrative

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.