Tuesday Nov.22, 2022

🏰 Disney’s Battle of the Bobs

Old Bob is new Bob with his old job (Michael Loccisano/Getty Images)
Old Bob is new Bob with his old job (Michael Loccisano/Getty Images)

Hey Snackers,

Restaurants are getting creative with Thanksgiving-themed dishes, from cornbread stuffing ice cream to turkey-and-mash pizza. Meanwhile, we’re still Googling “how brine turkey?”

US stocks slipped yesterday to kick off the short holiday week. Chinese consumer and casino stocks also dropped as Covid cases climbed and lockdowns intensified.

Bobs

Bob Iger’s surprise comeback as Disney CEO proves brand makers are hard to replace

“Game of Thrones: Magic Kingdom” edition… Disney icon Bob Iger shocked the entertainment industry by announcing he’d return as chief exec for two more years. Iger had stepped down as CEO in 2020 and was replaced by then head of parks Bob Chapek. In June, Disney's board voted to extend Chapek's CEO contract until 2025. But internal complaints from senior execs reportedly prompted a U-turn. Now, Disney’s ousting Chapek while the board looks for a more permanent replacement.

  • “Succession” IRL: Conflicting loyalties may’ve played a role, because Chapek and his inner circle were said to be caught off guard by the decision.
  • Disney shares jumped 6% yesterday, but are down 38% this year. Disney execs say Iger is "uniquely situated" to direct the company at this time.

Mouse House divided… Though Chapek helped Disney survive the pandemic, his tenure featured some public controversies. Last year Scarlett Johansson launched a lawsuit against Disney claiming breach of contract for “Black Widow.” In April, Chapek narrowly avoided a worker revolt following his delayed response to Florida’s “Don’t Say Gay” bill.

  • On the #s side: Disney stock experienced its biggest plunge in 21 years this month after its park and resorts revenue underwhelmed and profit disappointed.
  • Disney+ added more subs than forecast, but Disney’s streaming biz posted nearly $1.5B in operating losses.

Brand makers are hard to replace… Iger spent 15 years growing Disney into Hollywood's most powerful media conglomerate. That's the kind of household-name leadership that investors and execs like to bank on in a downturn. We’ve seen it before: Steve Jobs returned to Apple's helm in 1997 after 12 years away, and Starbucks founder Howard Schultz returned in April as interim CEO.

B(ad)

As World Cup host Qatar kicks off more controversy, Budweiser and other sponsors stay the course

Kicking themselves… Sponsors are losing the PR game at the FIFA World Cup. In the years leading up to this tournament, host country Qatar has been criticized over corruption, exploitative labor practices, and its anti-LGBTQ+ laws (homosexuality is illegal there). Controversy escalated this week after FIFA threatened teams who were planning on wearing rainbow armbands in support of the LGBTQ+ community, while Qatar banned beer sales at stadiums.

  • Sponsors = hit hard: AB InBev-owned Budweiser, the World Cup’s exclusive beer partner since 1986, paid $75M to sponsor this tourney but now won’t be able to sell alcohol (it’ll sell booze-free Bud Zero instead).
  • FIFA = unfazed. Soccer’s governing body, FIFA, made a record $7.5B from 2022 sponsors (FYI: FIFA officials have been charged with accepting Qatar-related bribes).

Hot-button hosts… are nothing new. The organizers of the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics and the 2018 World Cup in Russia were also criticized for ignoring local human-rights abuses. Now, 2022 World Cup sponsors like Coke, McDonald’s, Visa, Hyundai, and Adidas are getting heat for participating despite Qatar’s human-rights record. Meanwhile, “anti-sponsors” are on the rise:

  • UK brewery BrewDog launched flashy ad campaigns and special brews condemning Qatar, but has itself been criticized for signing a beer-distribution agreement with the country.

Eyeballs may matter more than mouths… when it comes to corporate profits. Despite vocal opposition to Qatar’s conduct, none of the World Cup’s 70+ major sponsors have backed out. Few are willing to ditch one of the world’s top advertising opportunities: this year’s Cup is expected to attract a record-shattering 5B viewers (aka: more than half of all humans).

DEFI(NE)

Heard on the Block: "white paper"

📜 Like a crypto constitution, but the founders are anonymous…

Crypto and blockchains come from somewhere. At the most basic level, that somewhere is often a white paper. Typically, white papers are foundational documents laying out technical specifications and core principles of a new cryptocurrency or blockchain. The bitcoin white paper was first published 14 years ago by the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Bahston: “Goodwill Hunting” costars Matt Damon and Ben Affleck said they’ve raised at least $100M to start a film-production company. In a rare move, they said they plan to share profits with actors and off-cam talent.
  • Foot: After un-banning Trump’s account, Elon’s next big Twitter play could be surviving the World Cup: the tourney brings big social foot traffic, but Twitter has shed more than half its staff under Musk.
  • Icy: Despite global gloom, luxe jewelers like Cartier, Bulgari, and Tiffany are in growth mode as bling booms. Branded pieces (think: Cartier love bracelets) are driving demand. Even Prada’s getting into jewels.
  • Swipe: Shares of LGBTQ+-focused dating app Grindr soared after the company went public via a SPAC merger, with a drag show outside the NYSE. It was a bright spot for the struggling SPAC market.
  • Ex: Bankrupt crypto exchange FTX said it owes its 50 largest creditors over $3B. Founder Sam Bankman-Fried is trying to broker a massive bailout from his Bahamas home, though he was booted from the company.

Tuesday

  • Earnings expected from: Medtronic, VMware, Dollar Tree, Baidu, HP, Best Buy, Warner Music Group, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Nordstrom, American Eagle, Abercrombie, and Jack in the Box

Authors of this Snacks own: bitcoin and shares of Apple, Disney, Starbucks, Warner Music Group, AB InBev, and Twitter

ID: 2605636

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Latest Stories

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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The FTC is banning non-compete clauses

Why that might make job switching even more lucrative

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/23/24

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.