Friday Mar.29, 2019

3-2-1 Lyft-Off...

_Your Lyft Pool is now arriving_
_Your Lyft Pool is now arriving_

Hey Snackers,

Long week? At least you didn't learn you made 220M errors over the past decade. Goldman did.

Markets are more distracted by today's Lyft IPO — The biggest US IPO since 2017.

IPO'd

Lyft IPOs today with 1 message: "We care"

“There are going to be competitors. And we will kill them”... -- Travis Kalanick, Uber co-founder, circa 2011. Three years later, Lyft rejected a low-ball takeover offer from Uber. And even though Uber's expected to have a bigger IPO this spring, today Lyft gets to list its shares publicly first at a valuation of $24B.

Cars, drivers, and riders have feelings, too... That was a core message from Lyft's roadshow — The multi-week tour to generate interest from big-time investors. It dropped words like "holistic" and "mindful," and got nostalgic about its mission-focused carpooling origins. Its IPO docs added some key numbers, too:

  • 39%: That's Lyft's piece of the US rideshare market, which doubled over the last 2 years of #deleteuber.
  • $2.2B: That's Lyft's revenue, which also doubled from just last year.
  • $62-$65: That's how much Lyft expected (at first) to sell shares for. But after enthusiasm and a good roadshow, it's selling them this morning for $72.

US Transportation's a $1.2T market... And Lyft's interested in all of it. So far it's got bikes, scooters, rides, big rides, and carpools. But the mission-oriented co-founders Logan Green and John Zimmer want more. Unlike Uber though, which is targeting the world (+ food delivery), Lyft has so far just stayed local in the US and Canada.

Sue

Facebook sued for discriminatory housing ads

0 days since getting sued... Facebook was taken to court Thursday by the Department of Housing and Urban Development ("HUD"), which has a problem with Facebook's advertising platform. Since ads make just about all of Facebook's money, investors have a problem too.

Advertisers want to put a roof over the head... of certain Facebook users. And that's not ok. Here's what HUD filed with the courts:

  • The complaint: Facebook allowed real-estate companies to target their ads to users based on "race, color, national origin, religion, familial status, sex, and disability."
  • The law: The Fair Housing Act of 1968 prohibits discrimination in housing based on "protected class." Basically, all those characteristics mentioned above.

The law only goes so far... Anti-discrimination laws apply to housing, employment, and credit/lending products. Anything else is up to Facebook. Will it let advertisers target only us for a Game of Thrones roller disco, excluding grandad? Probably. But where does it draw the line? Get ready for more controversy.

Quit

Wells Fargo's "turnaround" CEO suddenly quits

Established in 1867. Re-established in 2018... Digressed in 2019. Tim Sloan became Wells Fargo's CEO 2.5 years ago to fix its problems. Now, a month after he testified to Congress that he wasn't going anywhere, he is.

Here's a small sampling... of the dozen+ scandals Sloan was dealing with. The diversity of violations is almost impressive:

  • Fake accounts: Over 2016 and 2017, insane sales quotas pushed Wells Fargo associates to open up to 3.5M fake bank accounts and 500K fake credit cards.
  • Failed tests: The Federal Reserve makes banks prove they're fit and following the rules. Wells failed Fed tests in 2016, 2017, and 2018.
  • And more: Wells has been sued and/or fined during Sloan's tenure for discrimination, overcharging customers, poor compliance, and abusive car and home loans.

Banks are living their best lives right now... and that makes Wells' situation look even worse. Its stock is at the same level it was 5 years ago. Meanwhile, JPMorgan's is up 67% and Bank of America is up 62%. The fines didn't just hurt their financials — They distracted Wells execs from investing in the strategies that are now powering its competition.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Whoa: Wow, the Icelandic budget airline, cancels all its flights because the company suddenly collapsed
  • Hard-Knocks: MedMen, the "Apple Store of cannabis," is struggling because of lower prices from illicit street dealers
  • Snuffed: Disney's banning vaping and big strollers from its theme parks
  • Clearance: Palantir snags $800M government contract to build the Army's future battlefield software

Friday

  • Lyft's IPO
  • Earnings from CarMax

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Latest Stories

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/23/24

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.