Wednesday Apr.24, 2019

Play-Doh & Transformers save Hasbro

_Toys without movies < Toys with movies_
_Toys without movies < Toys with movies_

Hey Snackers,

Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson dished out $12K in Amazon stock to some teammates (+ a nice note).

Markets are channeling the generosity. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq jumped to record highs Tuesday after positive corporate earnings reports from a wide range of companies. More on that below.

Chat

Snapchat's big comeback step

Snap back... First, CEO Evan Spiegel changed his office uniform from t-shirt to nicer t-shirt. Then Snap rolled out its Games initiative last month. Now the mojo's officially returned after its 1st quarter earnings beat expectations. Our highlights:

  • Revenues rose 39% to $320M.
  • The number of Snapchat daily users rose 2% to 190M — That's more than Twitter.
  • A new Android app upgrade is finally done that's less derpy. It's already increased snaps sent by 6% in the first week because the app simply opens faster.
  • It spent more cash on the biz than it made (aka "negative cash flow") but that deficit shrank from $232M to just $66M.

World War Gen Z... This report was a reminder of how incredibly engaged the youngest generation of adults (and future adults) in America is with Snap:

  • 75% of 13-34 year-olds snap daily.
  • 90% of 13-24 year-olds do.
  • And they're all still the "most coveted demographic" for advertisers.

But are they taking ads from Facebook?... Both Twitter and Snap's earnings delighted Tuesday (Twitter stock rose 16%, Snap gained 7%). Both grew ad revenues — But where were those ads before switching to Twitter & Snap? They could've taken ads away from Google or Facebook. Zuck will reveal some answers when his baby releases earnings later today.

Play

Hasbro's best day in 20 years is thanks to Play-Doh and Transformers

Schedule more playdates... with the Pawtucket, RI-based team over at Hasbro. The 2018 Toys 'R' Us bankruptcy dropped toy sales nationwide 2% last year. But Hasbro stock jumped 14% Tuesday on signs it survived the play-pocalypse.

  • February 2019: Hasbro revealed its toy sales fell 13% over the holidays (blames Toys 'R' Us).
  • Yesterday: Hasbro's 1st quarter sales rose 2% — Their first gain in six quarters.

Dust off the top-bunk play box... Hasbro has found new retail shelf-space in grocery and drug stores to replace losses at Toys 'R' Us. But here are the toys heroically headlining its comeback:

  • Classics: Play-Doh and Monopoly sales rebounded hard.
  • Hollywood: Transformers got another movie (BumbleBee made $470M @ the box office) and an action figure with big sales.
  • Virtual: Forget cards. "Magic: The Gathering" now has a very real e-sports competition called "Arena" (and Hasbro's monetized it).

It's all about "The Disney Playbook"... Turn your childhood characters into profit ecosystems. Disney pumps out Star Wars theme parks and toys to complement its films. Hasbro rival Mattel's giving Barbie live-action big screen treatment this year. To keep up, Hasbro needs a movie/event/resort future for its Nerf/Twister/Furby past.

Trade

Tariffs hurt (Harley) and helped (Whirlpool)

Update: The trade war's still raging... The US reamins in tit-for-tat mode with China and Europe on international trade. And the trade taxes slapped on each other (aka tariffs) oozed out of Tuesday's serving of earnings reports.

🤬__The loser:__ Harley Davidson — Its profits dropped 27% and shares fell Tuesday.

  • Europe and China targeted Harley for retaliatory tariffs because the brand is so tattoo-ably American. That made bikes more expensive to customers abroad, hurting sales.

💵__The winner:__ Whirlpool — Its profits rose 10% and shares jumped Tuesday.

  • Whirlpool's American-made washing machines have an advantage on Samsung and LG's Korean-made ones. Those two had to raise prices because of US tariffs. Whirlpool didn't... but did anyway. So fewer Whirlpools were sold, but the sold ones were more profitable.

Tariffs aren't equal opportunity impacters... Most of America's economy is service-related. Apps, software, billable hours, haircuts. None of that is affected by tariffs, which hit imports and exports only. That's mainly manufacturing companies, like Harley and Whirlpool — And the impact is amplified (positively or negatively).

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Takeoff: Alphabet's big Google bet, Wing, becomes the 1st drone delivery service to get FAA approval
  • Arriving: Postmates adds 1,000 more cities to its delivery zone (hitting 3,500) on route to an IPO
  • Sipped: Coca-Cola will expand new coffee-infused energy drink versions of itself to 25 countries (and its earnings beat analysts' expectations)
  • Punished: Walgreens ups its tobacco age to 21 after an FDA shaming for underage sales
  • Splurges: P&G enjoyed its best quarterly sales growth in eight years by increasing prices on razors, mayo, and soaps
  • Out: Fuse, J-Lo's media company, files for bankruptcy

Wednesday

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Tangential remarks

Nicolai Tangen, the CEO who holds the purse strings of Norway’s $1.6 trillion sovereign wealth fund, thinks that his fellow Europeans don’t quite stack up to US employees when it comes to pure hustle, telling the Financial Times in a recent interview that there is a difference in “the general level of ambition” and thatthe Americans just work harder”. 

Tangen has clearly been putting his money — or more specifically Norway’s — where his mouth is: the sprawling Norwegian oil fund, now one of the largest investors on the planet, has been pumping more capital into its US holdings in the past decade, while decreasing its investment into European entities.

The troublesome news for our European readers? Tangen might be onto something. According to data from the OECD, American workers are putting in almost 60 hours a year more than the weighted average for OECD nations… a benchmark that workers from countries in the European Union are already ~180 hours shy of.

Hours worked

Tangen has clearly been putting his money — or more specifically Norway’s — where his mouth is: the sprawling Norwegian oil fund, now one of the largest investors on the planet, has been pumping more capital into its US holdings in the past decade, while decreasing its investment into European entities.

The troublesome news for our European readers? Tangen might be onto something. According to data from the OECD, American workers are putting in almost 60 hours a year more than the weighted average for OECD nations… a benchmark that workers from countries in the European Union are already ~180 hours shy of.

Hours worked
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$70B

Alphabet shares are soaring in the after-market session, with a initial jump of more than 10% implying a gain of upwards of about $200B in market value when the stock opens tomorrow morning.

Google’s parent company crushed earnings expectations, initiated a cash dividend for the first time, and authorized a fresh $70B in share repurchases for good measure. The market likes it very much.

Business
Rani Molla
4/25/24

No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

 Max Holloway and Mark Zuckerberg

Meta exhaustingly tries to merge the metaverse and AI

Gonna have to rename the company... again

Rani Molla4/25/24