Monday Jul.06, 2020

🚗 Tesla's big delivery

_Tesla soars on that young revolutionary energy_
_Tesla soars on that young revolutionary energy_

Hey Snackers,

Welcome back from the Fourth — For city dwellers, hopefully this means the end of illegal fireworks popping off every night, at all hours of the night, for the past few months. Was almost getting used to it...

Last week was the worst yet for new COVID-19 cases in the US, leading to more roll-backs of economic reopening plans. But markets rallied on a record employment report: 4.8M jobs were added in June (compared to 2.9M expected).

On our pod: Insur-tech startup Lemonade referred to itself as a "cocktail of delightful experience" and used the word "revolutionary" 7 times in its IPO paperwork — our 15-minute daily podcast is looking at why the stock doubled on Day #1 of trading.

Electrify

Tesla becomes the most valuable car company on Earth, passing Toyota

And I think it's gonna be Elon, lon, time... SpaceX Rocket Man and Tesla EV pioneer Elon Musk is having a winning 2020 (unlike the rest of us). In addition to a historic rocket launch and a baby named X Æ A-Xii, Elon has now notched the title: "CEO of world's most valuable car company."

  • On Wednesday, Tesla became the most valuable car company in the world. Its market cap is now around $224B, well past long-time #1 Toyota's $205B.
  • On Thursday, Tesla backed up that milestone with expectations-beating numbers: It produced 82K cars and delivered 91K last quarter.

Still seeing more Priuses... Tesla's deliveries fell only 4.8% compared to the same quarter last year — impressive, since the April through June quarter was peak corona-conomy shutdown. For reference: GM, Ford and Toyota saw quarterly sales plunge by over 30%. But Tesla's total numbers still pale in comparison to Toyota's:

  • 368K: The number of cars Tesla delivered last year, compared to Toyota's 11M (30X more than Tesla).
  • Annual profit: What Toyota has delivered for years — Tesla has yet to swing one.

Tesla is a young avocado tree... and Toyota is a mature, profitable orange tree. Investors like Tesla's potential — and stock prices are all about future growth. After years of quarterly losses, Tesla has delivered 3 profitable quarters in a row. Plus, it was able to maintain that momentum during an economic crisis/global pandemic. Investors like what they see, so they're buying the stock hoping for future profit growth.

Highs

Who's up...

Vax off, vax on... Pfizer and BioNTech shares soared on positive data from their COVID-19 vaccine trial. The big pharma companies unveiled an aggressive timeline: Pfizer expects to manufacture up to 100M doses by the end of 2020, and over 1B by end of 2021. Like smaller biotech company Moderna, Pfizer is testing an mRNA vaccine (these have never been approved for human use). Others like Johnson & Johnson are testing more OG traditional candidates. And both types of vaccines are receiving billions in US gov funding.

Double Kardashian makeover... Coty stock jumped after its latest Kardashian investment: the cosmetics giant is dishing out $200M for a 20% stake in Kim Kardashian's makeup brand KKW Beauty. Sales of Coty's own and licensed products (picture CoverGirl makeup and Burberry perfume) have been falling. Now investors hope Insta-famous, direct-to-consumer brands like KKW and Kylie Cosmetics can give 116-year-old Coty a fresh glow.

Lows

...and who's down

Details, please... Shares of freshly IPO'd Nikola plunged 21% last week. The hydrogen-fueled electric truck startup plans to sell electric and hydrogen-powered trucks (products delivered so far = 0). Last week, Nikola started taking preorders for its $60K-$90K Badger pickup to be delivered starting in 2022. But vague tweets from Nikola's founder left investors feeling uneasy. He then said the $5K Badger reservations "sold out" at 1K preorders.

Pull out the blotting papers... The world doesn't want all that oil. Oil prices went negative for the 1st time ever in April. Now they're back around $40 per barrel, but oil giants are losing hope. Fracking pioneer Chesapeake Energy just filed for bankruptcy. Shell wrote down the value of its oil assets by billions, expecting prices to stay low. BP says its oil assets are $17.5B less valuable — not because it thinks the economy won't bounce back, but because it thinks oil won't. Corona-conomy accelerates the energy transition.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Chill: How to practice meditation (and actually stick to it) — sometimes being still and "doing nothing" is actually doing the most.
  • Balance: What to do when you strongly disagree with someone you care about — step one: don't assume the worst intentions.
  • Learn: You hear about the S&P 500 all the time — Think of it as a stock scoreboard (peep the cool infographic).
  • Work: The world's 10 most in-demand jobs that don't directly require a degree, according to LinkedIn.
  • Wonder: 50 of the most beautiful natural wonders around the world (apparently pink bodies of water are a thing).

🍪 Thanks for Snacking with us! Want to start getting Snacks daily? Sign up here.

This Week

  • Monday: Markets kick off a full week after an Independence Day break
  • Tuesday: Earnings expected from Paychex and Levi Strauss
  • Wednesday: Major League Soccer kicks off at Disney World. Earnings expected from Bed Bath & Beyond
  • Thursday: Earnings expected from Delta and Walgreens. Weekly jobless claims.
  • Friday: Earnings expected from Infosys

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Tesla

ID: 1234525

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Latest Stories

$70B

Alphabet shares are soaring in the after-market session, with a initial jump of more than 10% implying a gain of upwards of about $200B in market value when the stock opens tomorrow morning.

Google’s parent company crushed earnings expectations, initiated a cash dividend for the first time, and authorized a fresh $70B in share repurchases for good measure. The market likes it very much.

Business

No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

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 Max Holloway and Mark Zuckerberg

Meta exhaustingly tries to merge the metaverse and AI

Gonna have to rename the company... again

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Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/24/24

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business
Rani Molla
4/24/24

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

Job switchers and stayers

The FTC is banning non-compete clauses

Why that might make job switching even more lucrative

Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales