Friday Jan.10, 2020

Verizon's "pros before cos" problem

_Finishing all the Chardonnay before the tariff hits_
_Finishing all the Chardonnay before the tariff hits_

Hey Snackers,

Crunchy new job alert: Get paid $100K to work at a Taco Bell (just in time for today's December Jobs Report).

A chilldown in US/Iran tension popped the Dow 212 points Thursday to (another) record high.

Cord-cut

Verizon is "disrupting itself" by making cable TV less painful for customers

If you can't sell it... Subscriptify-it. Verizon claims it just "disrupted the cable industry" by ending mandatory 12-month contracts for cable TV and eliminating "extra" fees (they still want normal fees). The goal is to revive its Fios business (fun fact: Fios is an abbreviation for fiber optic service), which is doing fine selling internet — not as fine selling cable TV.

  • The status quo: Brutal customer service, inflexible contracts with early termination fees, and (more) fees that make your $80 service cost $100. That's cable TV.
  • The result: Cord-cutting rages ahead as TV bingers save $$$ using their internet to stream instead — 67K customers ditched Verizon cable TV just last quarter.
  • Verizon's new goal: Slow down cord-cutting by becoming more like the streaming industry.

"Mix & Match"... That's the name of Verizon's new Fios offer — the idea is to make your cable/internet service totally flexible from month to month, with changable channel bundles and upgrade/downgradable internet speed. You know, control of what you're buying without needing to commit for 12 months (it's 2020. Commitment is scary).

Cable is a classic "pros before cos" industry... (profits before customers). Amazon is loved by customers because one of its key values is "customer obsession." Cable is profit obsessed — using its local monopoly to squeeze out your money with brutal year-long contracts and fees ($10/month equipment charge?). Thanks to competition from streaming, Cable's pros before cos strategy is dying.

Sip

French wine faces a 100% tariff threat — here's how it would affect you, and why

Cancel Wine & Cheese Wednesday... Your weekly merlot could get way pricier. The wine industry is freaking out over a threat by President Trump to place 100% tariffs on wine imported from Europe. American wine importers and retailers showed up at Capitol Hill this week trying to put a stopper on it. Let's rewine'd:

  • 1st Pour: 25% tariffs imposed in October on some European wines (also Scotch whiskey, Italian cheese, and other goodies). That's indirect retaliation for Europe subsidizing Airbus to compete with America's Boeing. Wine importers/distributors swallowed the cost.
  • 2nd Pour: 100% tariffs proposed in early December on French sparkling wines (including your bubbly rosé). That's a US response to a French digital tax targeting big American tech companies.
  • 3rd Pour: On December 12, American trade reps said the US might expand the proposed tariff to 100% on almost all wines from Europe.

When Trader Joe's pinot costs $60 a bottle... Americans lose out, too. The sobering tariff could mean jacked up prices and slimmer choices for consumers. American retailers that sell European wine will be the biggest losers.

Let it breathe... These tariffs just slap Europe on the wrist. France would lose sales to Americans — you wouldn't splurge $100 for a bottle of Bordeaux that used to cost $50, while the Napa cab still costs $40. The administration hopes the threat of that French export pain will push it to repeal the tax on American tech. But French wine enjoys plenty of demand worldwide, so the tariff could actually backfire.

Fired

Softbank unicorns are laying off 1,000s of workers (and we noticed a pattern)

Feeder of the unicorns... That's Japan's Softbank, one of the largest tech-focused venture capital funds ever. Fresh after dropping another $9.5B to save WeWork from bankruptcy, it's got a new problem: 11 startups it’s invested in just had major layoffs. And we noticed a pattern to how their CEOs "announced" the firings:

  • Step 1: Issue company-wide memo that'll ~~probably~~ definitely leak.
  • Step 2: Begin said memo with obnoxious stats about how great the startup is.
  • Step 3: Reveal you're laying people off, but don't use the words "fire" or "lay off" (be way much more ambiguous).
  • Step 4: Make virtuous claim about the future path to profitability.

We've got your case studies right here... Uber let go of 1,000s last year and WeWork fired 2,400. Here are Softbank's 2 most recent portfolio problems:

  • Zume Pizza — raised $375M from Softbank, now firing 400: While shutting down its core robot pizza biz, the CEO wrote they were "blessed with an opportunity to invent brave and innovative solutions.” But “many of the current roles no longer exist.”
  • Getaround — raised $300M from Softbank, now firing 150: The CEO humblebragged about their 6X growth to 5M users, then mentioned they're "reducing field operations."

This is the end of the anti-profit startup era... 2019 was the year of tech IPO enthusiasm — but public market investors rejected stocks of loss-making companies like Uber and Slack. Softbank was the VC fueling Uber's money-losing scale-at-all-costs rise (FYI, Uber loses $543K every hour). Now the rest of Softbank's portfolio is adjusting to the new unicorn normal.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • 2020: Zuck won't limit political ad targeting on Facebook or fact check them either (but will give you tools to reduce how many you see)
  • Spree: While you were post-holiday sales splurging, Ikea dropped $222M (actually a bargain price) on a mall in the center of London
  • Beyond-less: Bed Bath & Beyond shares tumble 19% after the dorm-decoration go-to's new CEO called last quarter's loss "unsatisfactory"
  • Bread: Dutch food-ordering company Takeaway.com is dropping $7.7B for its British rival Just Eat as the Delivery Wars heat up across the pond
  • Bubbles: AB InBev goes hard on spiked seltzer: The new line of Bud Light Seltzers arrive Monday and will get a 60-second Super Bowl ad

Friday

  • The big December Jobs Report

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Amazon

ID: 1054232

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Department of Justice investigating Live Nation and Ticketmaster

Taylor Swift fans have beef with Ticketmaster-owner Live Nation, and now the US government does, too: The Justice Department is reportedly getting ready to slap America's largest concert promoter with an antitrust suit.

Lawmakers and regulators have accused Live Nation of outrageously high ticket prices, iffy customer service, and anticompetitive practices.

The DOJ's investigation into the concert colossus heated up in November 2022, when Ticketmaster crashed after T. Swift fans tried to snap up "Eras" tour tickets.

The DOJ's investigation into the concert colossus heated up in November 2022, when Ticketmaster crashed after T. Swift fans tried to snap up "Eras" tour tickets.

Adidas inexplicably decides 2024 is the right time to jump back on NFTs

Adidas is reportedly teaming up with Stepn, a web3 company that promised to reward users who engaged in physical activity like walking and running. The collab, announced this morning by Stepn, kicks off with the release of 1K Adidas-styled NFT sneakers. Current price: roughly $2,500 a pop.

Stepn made waves back in 2022 as a pioneer of “move-to-earn” games.

The solana-based app rewarded active users with tokens — though they’d have to have purchased a pair of NFT sneakers first. Some early adopters bragged about making hundreds of dollars a day by walking, but critics said the game relied on Ponzi-scheme like economics. 

The Stepn-Adidas “phygital” sneakers release hits as the NFT market suffers a 30-day period that’s seen trading volumes fall nearly 40%.

The solana-based app rewarded active users with tokens — though they’d have to have purchased a pair of NFT sneakers first. Some early adopters bragged about making hundreds of dollars a day by walking, but critics said the game relied on Ponzi-scheme like economics. 

The Stepn-Adidas “phygital” sneakers release hits as the NFT market suffers a 30-day period that’s seen trading volumes fall nearly 40%.

Iran, oil, high rates are a bummer

At the risk of stating the obvious, the market has really started struggling. Last week’s hot inflation report, and the spike in interest rates it generated, seemed to get the sell-off rolling. Military strikes between Israel and Iran haven’t helped matters, as they’ve kept oil prices elevated. The market hates it, given the role oil plays keeping inflation high — and the Fed potentially on hold. The S&P’s 1.2% decline Monday pushed the index below its 50-day moving average, confirming the loss of momentum.

We’ve tried nothing and we’re all out of ideas

Forget driving away advertisers and charging for blue checks only to give them out for free, Elon Musk has other ideas to not make money on Twitter, aka X. Today he floated charging new users a “small fee” to deal with the platform’s seemingly intractable bot problem.

Old heads might remember that way back in 2022, ahead of buying Twitter, the billionaire had pledged to “defeat the spam bots or die trying.” Guess we’re in the “die trying” era.

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Which states have the highest tax rates?

Millions of people will be spending today frantically preparing to meet tonight’s 11:59 pm deadline. Indeed, those in the throes of filing can delight in the IRS’s promotion of “improved customer service”, as the ~100m who’ve already sent returns can enjoy less procedural promos from the likes of Krispy Kreme.

But if lower taxes are a priority for you: where should you move?

The biggest fund in the world is going absolutely nowhere near private equity

The Norwegian government announced on Friday that Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), the nation's $1.6T sovereign wealth fund, should not add private equity investments to its portfolio, rejecting the fund management's recommendation to add private equity allocation in November 2023.

The last few years have seen an uptick of institutional investors, such as pensions and endowments, increasing their exposure to PE. However, high fees and difficulty tracking investment performance have made the Norwegian government wary of investing in the field.

With private equity funds already struggling to return capital to their investors during a period of record-high inflows, restraint by the Norwegian government may prove to be a shrewd decision.

Bain Projections
Source: Bain Capital

The last few years have seen an uptick of institutional investors, such as pensions and endowments, increasing their exposure to PE. However, high fees and difficulty tracking investment performance have made the Norwegian government wary of investing in the field.

With private equity funds already struggling to return capital to their investors during a period of record-high inflows, restraint by the Norwegian government may prove to be a shrewd decision.

Bain Projections
Source: Bain Capital
2024-04-15-apple-samsung-site

Samsung has dethroned Apple as the top smartphone seller... again

Adobe is paying $3 a minute for AI-training video of people touching things

Adobe is pushing its way into the growing business of generative AI video, joining OpenAI’s Sora and Google’s Imagen 2.

The new tools will roll out this year, according to Adobe.

In contrast to its web-scraping rivals, Bloomberg reported that Adobe is paying videographers up to $120 for stock footage used to train the model.

High-priority subjects include: footage of people showing emotions, clips of people touching things, and anatomy shots of eyes, hands, and feet.  

AI companies are growing increasingly wary of copyright lawsuits, as giants like YouTube threaten possible litigation if AI is trained on their videos. Plus: AI is learning so fast that the data used to train it could be completely tapped by 2026.

High-priority subjects include: footage of people showing emotions, clips of people touching things, and anatomy shots of eyes, hands, and feet.  

AI companies are growing increasingly wary of copyright lawsuits, as giants like YouTube threaten possible litigation if AI is trained on their videos. Plus: AI is learning so fast that the data used to train it could be completely tapped by 2026.

10%

Tesla is laying off more than 10% of its roughly 140,000 person global workforce, according to a company email viewed by Electrek and Business Insider. The news comes after disappointing first quarter delivery numbers and a report by Reuters that the company is canning its long-awaited mass-market car.

Netflix is still trying to nail movies

Netflix’s new movie chief is already shaking things up. Just two weeks into his tenure, Dan Lin has laid off 15 employees in the film department (~10% of its staff) and reorganized the division by genre instead of budget level, as the streaming giant looks to produce a wider spectrum of films.

Lin’s new vision for one of Netflix’s highest profile departments comes amidst a wider strategic reshuffle at the company. Gone are the days of limitless budgets, blank checks and endless A-list packed action flicks. A new era — complete with a password sharing crackdown, multiple price hikes, a foray into advertising, and much tighter departmental purse strings — has been ushered in by the world’s largest streamer.

The leaner, new Netflix shows up most clearly in the company’s cash spending on content: last year Netflix spent $13.1 billion on content, some 21% less than the $16.7 billion spent in 2022.

Netflix content spending

Lin’s new vision for one of Netflix’s highest profile departments comes amidst a wider strategic reshuffle at the company. Gone are the days of limitless budgets, blank checks and endless A-list packed action flicks. A new era — complete with a password sharing crackdown, multiple price hikes, a foray into advertising, and much tighter departmental purse strings — has been ushered in by the world’s largest streamer.

The leaner, new Netflix shows up most clearly in the company’s cash spending on content: last year Netflix spent $13.1 billion on content, some 21% less than the $16.7 billion spent in 2022.

Netflix content spending