Wednesday Sep.23, 2020

🚲 The “Prime” Peloton knockoff that wasn't

_Echelon is to Peloton as McDowell's is to McDonald's_
_Echelon is to Peloton as McDowell's is to McDonald's_

Hey Snackers,

In a lovely example of tech companies doing way too much, Microsoft has created a "virtual commute" for Teams. Hope there's no web traffic jam on IP-101 on your way to the Address Bar.

Stocks ticked up yesterday as heavy-hitter Amazon led Big Tech shares higher.

Knockoff

Echelon launches "Prime Bike," claiming a partnership with Amazon

Sounds familiar... Echelon is a connected fitness spin bike company that looks (and sounds) a lot like Peloton — serious knockoff vibes. Also: it's the code name of a top-secret government surveillance program (unrelated — we think). Echelon claimed it teamed up with Amazon to launch a $499 "Prime Bike," peddling it as Amazon's 1st-ever connected fitness product. Unsurprisingly, that generated some buzz. Two things:

  1. Echelon is making the bike, but said it was “developed in collaboration with Amazon” and only available to Prime subscribers. Awk, because Echelon is selling a nearly identical $499 bike on Walmart. The only apparent difference: it says "Sport" on the side instead of "Prime."
  2. Peloton stock fell on the news. The bike costs $1.5K less than Peloton's flagship model. But it doesn't have a screen, so you have to stream classes from Echelon's app on a phone/tablet.

Because Peloton wasn't enough... Echelon tried to knock off Prime, too (bold move). Yesterday evening, Amazon immediately stopped selling the bike, saying it "is not an Amazon product or related to Amazon Prime.” Echelon deleted its press announcement real quick.

If you can stream it, you can do it... Streaming has democratized plenty, including workouts. Instead of spending $2K on a fancy-screen Peloton, you can spend $499 on Echelon and then ironically stream Peloton classes from your phone (Peloton app membership = $13/month). Price is why Echelon's (misleading) bike is already sold out. Peloton's sales tripled last quarter, but it's brand strength will be tested by these cheaper look-alikes.

Clean

Big banks knowingly moved billions in criminal money, according to new reports

Drug cartels, trafficking rings, money launderers and terror networks... Sounds like the premise of every Netflix show — actually the criminal groups that big banks enabled, according to new investigative reports by BuzzFeed and others. JPMorgan Chase, HSBC, and Deutsche Bank were among those implicated in (drumroll please)...

  • “The FinCEN Files”: These secret documents allegedly reveal how bank giants moved trillions of $$$ in suspicious transactions, helping criminals launder money.
  • Money laundering: The (very illegal) practice of making “dirty money” clean by passing it through legit transfers/transactions.

A bad case of "filed away"... Banks are required to report large cash transactions and suspicious activities through SARS (aka: Suspicious Activity Reports). Then, FinCEN — the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network of the Treasury Department — is supposed to share that info with law enforcement, regulators, etc. who enforce the law (if necessary). While banks raised red flags, they still continued processing suspicious transactions.

We need better oversight... Money laundering enables terrible crimes, and legit institutions have enabled money laundering. As long as a bank files a SAR, it essentially immunizes itself from criminal prosecution. It could file one and still accept a sketchy transaction. The FinCEN Files include over 2,000 SARS, not all of which are necessarily reflective of actual crimes — but some were, and the banks and FinCEN didn't stop them.

Flop

Quibi is reportedly exploring a sale after solving a problem that was already solved

Adorable name... not-so-adorable turnout. Quibi is different from its other streaming peers, like Hulu, Vudu, Roku, and Fubo (although...we sense a trend). The mobile-first short video startup — short for "quick bites" — raised a gargantuan $1.75B before launching in April. It's the brainchild of Dreamworks founder Jeff Katzenberg, so expectations were high. Fast forward...

  • Quibi has failed to live up to the hype. It's reportedly falling majorly short of its paid subscriber targets (even with the 90-day free trial).
  • It's also dealing with a lawsuit regarding its key "Turnstyle" feature, which lets you seamlessly switch between horizontal and vertical phone viewing.
  • Now, Quibi is reportedly exploring cash-raising options, including selling itself or merging with a SPAC (aka: a "blank check" company) to go public.

That awkward in-between spot... With its 8-minute episodes, Quibi sits between short user-generated videos (on Snap, Insta, TikTok) and long-form studio content (on Netflix, Disney+, etc.). It costs $5/month with ads and $8/month without — less than Netflix, but more than Disney. Despite star-studded shows and high-quality production, it seems many haven't found it compelling enough to pay for.

Quibi solved a problem that was already solved... Quibi execs love pointing out that it was created for “in-between moments,” like that 6-minute subway ride.

  • They've blamed poor performance on the pandemic, saying the lack of commuting didn't leave any space for those mobile-centric moments.
  • But social media and gaming apps have never had higher engagement. They've long capitalized on our extra-short attention spans, solving the "in-between" problem better (and for free). That leaves little room for Quibi.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Stitches: Stitch Fix stock plunged over 16% after the subscription styling service revealed it lost $44M last quarter.
  • Accelerate: Online used car seller Carvana says it expects to see record sales this quarter — the stock revved up 30%.
  • Score: Barstool's betting app beat DraftKings' gambling app download record in its opening weekend (a win for owner Penn National Gaming)
  • Gamer: Microsoft is buying Fallout video game-maker Bethesda and its parent company for $7.5B in cash.
  • Swoosh: Nike reported better-than-expected sales growth courtesy of demand rebounding in China.

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Wednesday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Amazon, JPMorgan Chase and Stitch Fix

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A couple of days ago, a tweet making fun at McDonald’s hiring a “Manager for Diplomatic Relations” went viral.

At first glance, the idea that McDonald’s, a burger franchise known for its double quarter pounders and perfectly salted fries, is expanding its diplomatic influence with policy makers in Foggy Bottom and the world at large sounds comical. But it’s actually crucial.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

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For most of humanity, the thought of “nuclear-powered AI” sends a shiver down the spine. But the stock market is all for it! Just check out the list of top performing S&P 500 stocks this year. Just behind established AI plays — Super Micro Computer and Nvidia, you’ll find Constellation Energy, the largest operator of nuclear plants in the U.S. NRG Energy, which also operates nuclear plants, isn’t far behind. Bloomberg reports that CEO of power distributor Exelon — which spun off Constellation in 2022 — says in the Chicago area alone, AI could drive a 900% jump in demand for energy from data centers.

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In its third and fourth quarter earnings report, Tesla said that its current Cybertruck production capacity was greater than 125,000 a year. Musk had previously said he expected to produce 250,000 Cybertrucks a year by 2025.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

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Markets

Cocoa hits $11,000

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Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

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“In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential,” its shareholders letter read. “But now we’re generating very substantial profit and free cash flow.” The company said that it will focus on revenue and operating margin as its main financial metrics, while it will look at time spent on the platform to gauge customer satisfaction.

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