Wednesday Mar.10, 2021

📝 Amazon's union nightmare

"_Guaranteed to suck all your carbon away_"
"_Guaranteed to suck all your carbon away_"

Hey Snackers,

Happy hump day. If six hours of sleep is truly as bad as no sleep, we might as well go full Edward Cullen.

The Nasdaq soared ~4% yesterday as tech shares rebounded after a rough few weeks. The House will likely make a final vote today on the $1.9T stimulus plan.

Unite

Amazon's historic labor showdown: why the 'Zon is fighting the union push

The labor force awakens... and Bezos has a problem. Amazon workers in Alabama are pushing to unionize their warehouse, which would create the first Amazon union in the US. They want job security and better working conditions. Amazon wants them to stop.

  • The status: Ballots were sent out to the warehouse's 5.8K workers last month. They have until March 29th to vote.
  • The fallout: If they say "yes" to the union, Amazon will be legally required to bargain with the retail union (aka: its nightmare). That could also inspire other Amazonians to unionize.
  • The response: The 'Zon is fighting back hard. Think: anti-union banners, emails, and even flyers in the warehouse bathrooms.

Power in numbers... By uniting workers, labor unions have leverage to improve working conditions for groups they represent. Think: negotiating contracts with employers on wages, benefits, and hours. While they're still common in Europe, they've fallen out of favor in the US: the unionization rate went from 35% in the mid-1950s, to 11% in 2020.

  • Why Amazon is anti-union: Union rules could limit its freedom to quickly hire (or cut) workers, and its ability to automate (aka: hire more robots). Plus, Amazon says it already offers better pay and benefits than its peers.
  • BTW: Amazon has been accused of retaliating against pro-union workers. Last month, President Biden tweeted a video saying workers should be able to vote without pressure from corporate.

The Union Awakening transcends collar colors.... Unions are typically associated with blue-collar jobs (like car manufacturing). In recent years, we've seen white-collar unions emerge. On the media side, BuzzFeed employees formed a union in 2019. On the tech side, hundreds of Google employees formed a rare Silicon Valley union this year. Since Googlers' median pay is ~$200K/year, their union is focused on social issues and HR policies. For Amazon warehouse workers, it's all about job security and working conditions.

Vacuum

Carbon capturing captures corporate interest, from Exxon to Shopify

The race to zero... In recent years, companies have pledged billions to reduce their carbon emissions: from Amazon pledging to become carbon-neutral by 2040, to Microsoft pledging to become carbon-negative by 2030. To cut emissions, companies generally invest in renewable energy (like: wind and solar) and carbon offsets (like: paying for tree plantings). But a less common way is gaining traction...

  • Carbon capture: It's kind of like vacuum cleaning, for CO2. Carbon dioxide is captured from the air, then moved to a storage site deep underground. Generally, CO2 gets injected into rock formations (#NoEscape).

Counterintuitive... The most common commercial use for captured carbon has been... using it to squeeze oil and gas out of the ground. But now, companies are making moves to sell carbon capture for green purposes.

  • Shopify will be the first customer of Carbon Engineering's capturing solution. The Canadian startup will remove CO2 on Shopify's behalf.
  • Occidental Petroleum and BHP have also invested in Carbon Engineering, and Chevron invested in carbon capture startup Blue Planet.
  • Exxon, once a skeptic, just created a new biz unit to commercialize carbon capture — and sees it as a potential profit puppy.

There's never been a greener time... to sell carbon-removal solutions. President Biden has pledged $2T to clean energy innovation, partly through subsidies for green tech (and his admin has supported carbon capturing). Oil giants are blamed for climate change, and Big Tech companies are also carbon-spewers. Their desire to change, combined with government incentives, could make carbon capture a big biz: Exxon says it'll be a $2T market by 2040, and that it's the cheapest way to address emissions.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Magical: Disney+ tops 100M streaming subscribers just 16 months after launching. Mufasa would be proud.
  • DL: Online gaming company Roblox goes public today on the NYSE through a direct listing (ask your 10-year-old cousin about it).
  • ZoomOut: Zoom CEO Eric Yuan transfered $6B worth of his Zoom shares (or 40% of his stake) to "unspecified recipients."
  • Pickbox: Cloud storage company Dropbox is snatching up document sharing startup DocSend for $165M.
  • Taryay: Target is launching an indulgent grocery brand with more than 700 products, from birthday cake ice cream to macarons.

Wednesday

  • Earnings expected from Bumble, Campbell Soup, and Asana
  • Roblox goes public via direct listing.

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Amazon and Shopify

ID: 1557583

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$70B

Alphabet shares are soaring in the after-market session, with a initial jump of more than 10% implying a gain of upwards of about $200B in market value when the stock opens tomorrow morning.

Google’s parent company crushed earnings expectations, initiated a cash dividend for the first time, and authorized a fresh $70B in share repurchases for good measure. The market likes it very much.

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No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

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Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

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All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

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Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales