Wednesday Sep.01, 2021

📱 Apple and Google's big threat

"Provide alternative payment method" [Yuri_Arcurs/E+ via GettyImages]
"Provide alternative payment method" [Yuri_Arcurs/E+ via GettyImages]

Hey Snackers,

August is behind us (sigh), but we've still got 22 days of summer left. That didn't stop Starbucks from kicking off Pumpkin Spice Latte season early. The PSL drove record fourth quarter sales last year.

Stocks dipped yesterday, but posted gains for the month despite uncertainty around the surging Delta variant.

Swipe

South Korea's new law is the first to dent Google and Apple's app store payments dominance

Doing some Seoul searching... Big Tech. Yesterday, South Korea passed the first law in the world to dent Apple and Google's dominance over app store transactions. Quick refresher: Apple and Google typically take a ~30% cut of in-app purchases, downloads, and subs. Those in-app purchases must flow through Apple/Google's own payment systems. Now…

  • Not just Apple and Google Pay: South Korea will require the tech giants to allow payment systems from other payment processors and developers.
  • That threatens the 30% "App Tax" that Apple/Google collect. If they don't comply, the tech giants could be fined up to 3% of their South Korea revenue.

BRB, going app shopping... Don't sprain a finger. Apple says its current app store policies help protect user safety. But given recent scrutiny, the Fruit halved its 30% fee for developers earning less than $1M/year, and Google said it would only take 15% of developers' first $1M. This South Korean law is the biggest threat so far to their app store dominance — but it's not the first.

  • Fortnite-maker Epic Games added its own in-app payment system to bypass the "App Tax." Apple and Google responded by expelling Fortnite from their app stores, leading to the ongoing Epic trial saga.
  • Last month, a bipartisan group of US Senators proposed legislation similar to South Korea's. In June, a House Committee approved major legislation to curb Big Tech's dominance. Meanwhile, Australia is considering new regulations for Apple/Google Pay.

Precedent is powerful... This South Korean law and its impact could be referenced by regulators in other countries to curb Apple and Google's dominance. Regulators will be watching to see how South Korea’s law pans out. For example: if it results in more fraud, as Apple has warned. Either way, Apple and Google’s app store payments dominance is no longer absolute.

Mango

Pinduoduo passes its profits to farmers — and scores points with the Chinese government

Potato box delivery... coming in hot. Pinduoduo has surpassed Alibaba — aka: "the Amazon of China" — as China’s most popular ecomm platform by user count. Pindoudou's app connects farmers/distributors with Chinese consumers. The $120B "social ecommerce" platform doesn't really have a US equivalent: shoppers can play games to win prizes, like discounts or boxes of mangoes. Pinduoduo’s sales still trail Alibaba’s, but it’s growing faster — and its stock is up 10% over the past year, while Alibaba’s down 40%.

Mangoes > Louis Vuitton… The ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has increasingly emphasized its goal of achieving “common prosperity” — and alleviating rural poverty. That's partly why it's cracked down on Big Tech this year, from fintech giant Ant Group to video game giant Tencent. Oh, and China fined Alibaba a record $2.8B for "anticompetitive practices." Think: preventing luxury merchants like Louis Vuitton from selling on other platforms.

  • Pinduoduo is on China's "better" side: Its agriculture-friendly biz model is better aligned with China's rural prosperity goals. Its quiet social presence and focus on low-income customers has helped it avoid Alibaba-level fines.
  • Pinduoduo wants to keep it that way: After turning its first profit last quarter, Pinduoduo announced plans last week to donate $1.5B in profits to Chinese farmers.

Beijing rewards compliance... China’s crackdown on Alibaba gave Pinduoduo room to grow. To keep growing, Pinduoduo wants to stay in China’s good graces by giving its profits away to farmers and supporting the government’s plans for agricultural development. Companies in other industries are making similar moves to avoid State restrictions. This month, Tencent, which got rocked by China’s gaming restrictions, pledged $7.7B to “common prosperity” initiatives.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Social: The US says Social Security trust funds will run out of money in 12 years — one year sooner than expected.
  • Holmes: The criminal trial of disgraced Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes kicked off yesterday.
  • Stormed: As the US struggles with all kinds of shortages, Hurricane Ida could make the supply chain disaster even worse.
  • Ditto: Walgreens said it'll raise wages for hourly workers to $15/hour by November 2022. Earlier this month, CVS said it plans to do the same by July 2022.
  • Outsource: Facebook reportedly pays consulting partners like Accenture to sift through the most toxic and disturbing content on its platform.
  • Startup: In its filing to go public at an expected $2B valuation, wool sneaker icon Allbirds reported growing sales and widening losses.

Wednesday

Earnings expected from Chewy, Okta, Asana, Campbell Soup Company, Five Below, and Vera Bradley

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Apple, Google, Starbucks, and CVS

ID: 1822386

Get Your News

Subscribe and thrive

Snacks provides fresh takes on the financial news you need to start your day. Chartr provides data visualizations on business, entertainment, and society. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Latest Stories

Power

World out of balance: It costs the US 3¢ to make 1 penny

The cost of producing the US penny rose 13% in fiscal 2023 to 3.07 cents. Yes, that means that Uncle Sam loses more than two cents for every cent it produces. (And no, you can’t make it up on volume.)

For the record, that’s the 18th-straight year the penny’s face value has been below production costs, fueling calls for abolishing the lowest value denomination coin. Canada started to phase out the penny in 2013, joining Australia, Brazil, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, and Israel, according to Smithsonian Magazine.

3.07¢
Go Deeper with Market Depth

Nasdaq TotalView powers the need-to-know data serious investors rely on.

Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia
Business

Netflix is going to stop sharing subscriber numbers

After posting subscriber numbers that beat expectations today, Netflix says it’s no longer going to share those numbers starting in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a big deal since subscriber numbers have long been one of the main metrics that investors have looked at.

“In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential,” its shareholders letter read. “But now we’re generating very substantial profit and free cash flow.” The company said that it will focus on revenue and operating margin as its main financial metrics, while it will look at time spent on the platform to gauge customer satisfaction.

Another way to read this? They’ve hit market saturation and just aren’t going to be growing that much anymore, and they thought they’d end on a good note. Going forward they’re focusing on how to get more money out of the customers they do have.

They’re doing so by cracking down on password sharing and charging for extra members. They’re also pushing people to ad tiers, which are more profitable than non-ad tiers.

“Scaling ads to become a more meaningful contributor to our business in ‘25 and beyond,” Netflix said.

Netflix’s ads membership grew another 65% in Q1 over the previous one, after rising 70% the quarter before, and 40% of signups in ad markets continue to be for those ad plans.

Tech

Meta’s not telling where it got its AI training data

Today Meta unleashed its ChatGPT competitor, Meta AI, across its apps and as a standalone. The company boasts that it is running on its latest, greatest AI model, Llama 3, which was trained on “data of the highest quality”! A dataset seven times larger than Llama2! And includes 4 times more code!

What is that training data? There the company is less loquacious.

Meta said the 15 trillion tokens on which its trained came from “publicly available sources.” Which sources? Meta told The Verge’s Alex Heath that it didn’t include Meta user data, but didn’t give much more in the way of specifics.

It did mention that it includes AI-generated data, or synthetic data: “we used Llama 2 to generate the training data for the text-quality classifiers that are powering Llama 3.” There are plenty of known issues with synthetic or AI-created data, foremost of which is that it can exacerbate existing issues with AI, because it’s liable to spit out a more concentrated version of any garbage it is ingesting.

AI companies are turning to such data because there’s not enough good, public data on the entire internet to train their increasingly greedy AI models. (Meta had reportedly floated buying a publisher like Simon & Schuster to satisfy its insatiable data needs.)

Meta, of course, isn’t the only company that’s tight-lipped about where its AI data is coming from. In a now infamous interview with WSJ’s Johanna Stern, OpenAI’s chief technology officer Mira Murati was unable to answer questions about what Sora, OpenAI’s video generating app, was trained on. YouTube? Facebook? Instagram — she said she wasn’t sure.

What is that training data? There the company is less loquacious.

Meta said the 15 trillion tokens on which its trained came from “publicly available sources.” Which sources? Meta told The Verge’s Alex Heath that it didn’t include Meta user data, but didn’t give much more in the way of specifics.

It did mention that it includes AI-generated data, or synthetic data: “we used Llama 2 to generate the training data for the text-quality classifiers that are powering Llama 3.” There are plenty of known issues with synthetic or AI-created data, foremost of which is that it can exacerbate existing issues with AI, because it’s liable to spit out a more concentrated version of any garbage it is ingesting.

AI companies are turning to such data because there’s not enough good, public data on the entire internet to train their increasingly greedy AI models. (Meta had reportedly floated buying a publisher like Simon & Schuster to satisfy its insatiable data needs.)

Meta, of course, isn’t the only company that’s tight-lipped about where its AI data is coming from. In a now infamous interview with WSJ’s Johanna Stern, OpenAI’s chief technology officer Mira Murati was unable to answer questions about what Sora, OpenAI’s video generating app, was trained on. YouTube? Facebook? Instagram — she said she wasn’t sure.

Today’s earnings: Who’s making money edition

Here are some some notable numbers out this morning, as earnings season gathers steam. Thursday’s main event will be Netflix after the close of trading. (Keep an eye on its advertising business.) But until then...

7.13%

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage is back above 7%, according to weekly numbers from the Mortgage Bankers Association, the highest level in four months. High borrowing costs are creating havoc for would-be buyers, as affordability lingers at the low levels not seen consistently since the late 1980s.

Your inbox is ready

Subscribe and thrive

Snacks provides fresh takes on the financial news you need to start your day. Chartr provides data visualizations on business, entertainment, and society. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Business

Amazon’s spy ops on rivals: shell companies, printed docs, and a fake Japanese streetwear brand

Some companies check out rivals’ websites, stores and public filings to stay abreast of the competition. Amazon made its own fake shell company and brands, transacted hundreds of thousands of dollars per year undercover on competitors’ platforms, and kept its intel operation a secret for nearly a decade even from others at Amazon, according to a fascinating investigation by the Wall Street Journal.

Working as a seller called Big River, a secret group of Amazon employees gained access to rival platforms, including Walmart, FedEx, and Alibaba. They used Big River email addresses and went to seller conferences as Big River employees. They even stayed hidden within Amazon itself. These employees would take screenshots of competitors’ systems that they would then show others at Amazon in person to avoid an email paper trail.

Perhaps most strange of all, the company created a fake Japanese streetwear brand called “Not So Ape” (clearly a play on A Bathing Ape) and continues to sell products from the brand on a Shopify store, presumably as an attempt to learn the inner workings of the shopping platform. Of course, copying is old hat for Amazon.

In meetings where they’d use this clandestine information to inform Amazon’s own business practices, the group resorted to literal paper. “[T]he team avoided distributing presentations electronically to Amazon executives. Instead, they printed the presentations and numbered the documents. Executives could look at the reports and take notes, but at the end of the meeting, team members collected the papers to ensure that they had all copies."

Working as a seller called Big River, a secret group of Amazon employees gained access to rival platforms, including Walmart, FedEx, and Alibaba. They used Big River email addresses and went to seller conferences as Big River employees. They even stayed hidden within Amazon itself. These employees would take screenshots of competitors’ systems that they would then show others at Amazon in person to avoid an email paper trail.

Perhaps most strange of all, the company created a fake Japanese streetwear brand called “Not So Ape” (clearly a play on A Bathing Ape) and continues to sell products from the brand on a Shopify store, presumably as an attempt to learn the inner workings of the shopping platform. Of course, copying is old hat for Amazon.

In meetings where they’d use this clandestine information to inform Amazon’s own business practices, the group resorted to literal paper. “[T]he team avoided distributing presentations electronically to Amazon executives. Instead, they printed the presentations and numbered the documents. Executives could look at the reports and take notes, but at the end of the meeting, team members collected the papers to ensure that they had all copies."

Crypto
Jack Morse
4/17/24

Worldcoin pivots to the blockchain… with a 'humans only' discount

Worldcoin, the “proof of personhood” crypto project launched by OpenAI’s Sam Altman, said it plans to launch its own ethereum layer-2 (L2) blockchain dubbed World Chain. The pitch: a blockchain where it’s both easier and cheaper for people to transact than bots.

Worldcoin has made waves for its iris-scanning metallic orb that promises a future where people can mathematically prove they’re real humans and not AI bots.

But it’s run into trouble: the orbs have been banned across Europe and Africa, and the associated WLD crypto token has plunged 50% over the past month.

For project insiders, who reportedly received a token allocation of 25% of supply, that could equal significant losses. 

Which is what may make World Chain attractive. Crypto exchange Coinbase launched its own L2, Base, last year. Base has since seen rapid user growth — activity that’s generated the exchange millions of dollars in weekly fees

Worldcoin could benefit from similar revenue if its L2 is adopted around the world.

But it’s run into trouble: the orbs have been banned across Europe and Africa, and the associated WLD crypto token has plunged 50% over the past month.

For project insiders, who reportedly received a token allocation of 25% of supply, that could equal significant losses. 

Which is what may make World Chain attractive. Crypto exchange Coinbase launched its own L2, Base, last year. Base has since seen rapid user growth — activity that’s generated the exchange millions of dollars in weekly fees

Worldcoin could benefit from similar revenue if its L2 is adopted around the world.

Business

Smooth sailing? Not for superyachts

Sales of the luxury boats sank 17% last year. Meanwhile, Super-SUPER yachts (over 650 feet long) took the biggest sales dip, falling around 40%. Part of the problem: a pandemic-era backlog has led to a three- to four-year waitlist for new yacht orders. Meanwhile Russian oligarchs — former MVP customers — are largely out of the boat-buying business due to sanctions.

Dr Martens shares have been stomped

American sales of Docs have dropped