Friday Aug.14, 2020

🍎 Apple gets bundled up

_The robots are multiplying_
_The robots are multiplying_

Hey Snackers,

The bizarre, ever-evolving Peanut saga continues: after killing off 104-year-old Mr. Peanut, Planters introduced "Baby Nut" to the world. Seven months after Baby Nut's birth, Planters has informed us that he is now a bar-going 21-year-old named "Peanut Jr." Perhaps 2020 should be measured in Baby Nut Years, too.

The S&P 500 and the Dow dipped yesterday despite better-than-expected unemployment data — weekly jobless claims came in below 1M for the first time since March.

Bundle

Apple might be bundling its subscription services (plus, some Fortnite drama)

Like apples in a basket... Apple doesn't want its services to hang alone anymore. The Fruit is reportedly launching subscription bundles along with its new iPhones in October. For consumers, a bundle costs less than subscribing to each service individually. For Apple, bundling helps score more subscribers for its services and build Prime-style loyalty. The bundles, dubbed "Apple One," will be offered at different price tiers (we named them):

  • Basic: Includes Apple Music and Apple TV+ (so you can watch that one Jen Aniston show).
  • Less Basic: Apple Music, Apple TV+, and Apple's Arcade gaming service (who is she?).
  • Baller: All the above, plus Apple News+ and extra iCloud storage. "Baller bundles" will also reportedly include a new fitness service with virtual classes.

Excellent timing... Apple's probably relieved that this news didn't spill before the big antitrust hearing. Two weeks ago, Big Tech CEOs got grilled by Congress while trying to prove their companies aren't giant anti-competitive monopolies. Apple's CEO Tim Cook got the fewest questions. Since then, more fuel has been added to the fire:

  • Apple just removed Fortnite from the App Store, saying it violated guidelines by adding its own in-app payment system (bypassing the 30% cut Apple takes from app purchases).
  • Now Fortnite-maker Epic Games is suing Apple — it says the App Store is a monopoly. This isn't the 1st time Apple's getting heat for its App Store-controlling ways (it's a theme).

Bundling is a powerful strategy (that breeds lawsuits)... Big Tech can afford to bundle different services together at lower price points than competitors. Slack recently filed an antitrust complaint against Microsoft for throwing in Teams (free of extra charge) with the Office 365 subscription. Spotify, which already sued Apple for playing favorites on the App Store, could file another complaint about the Apple Music bundling. TBD if Peloton will sweat over Apple's new fitness subscription.

Automate

Robots are taking over in the corona-conomy as human contact gets more risky

The robots are coming... Well, more of them are. While humans risk catching coronavirus, aluminum machines don't. Automation, which has been increasing for years, is majorly accelerating in the corona-conomy. Robotic usage among retailers in US locations reportedly jumped 14% from January to March (compared to the same period last year) and a whopping 24% from April to June.

WALL-E's LinkedIn headline... "Well-rounded automaton, open to all opportunities." The robots don't discriminate when it comes to industries. Companies in a wide range of sectors are loading up on automation to meet their pandemic needs. A few major bot-stars:

  • Cleaning: Neo is a 4-foot-tall, 1K-pound robot floor scrubber for large commercial buildings. Neo sales have 2X'd since the shutdowns in March. Meanwhile, Softbank's corporate carpet cleaner Whiz has been sold 10K times since November.
  • Food Service: MisoRobotics' Flippy is the burger-grilling bot hired by White Castle last month. Sally, Chowbotics' salad-making robot, saw 60% more sales since COVID hit.
  • Childcare: Moxie is the adorable robot that teaches kids at home with "what eerily resembles human empathy." With kids doing school from home and parents losing their minds, Moxie could sell out when it launches this fall (even at the $1.5K price tag).

This could hurt economic recovery even more... While automation and robotics is a safer bet for businesses from a health perspective, the bot-acceleration could make the unemployment situation worse. Despite the improving unemployment rate, the US still hasn't brought back even half of the ~22M jobs lost since March. Some estimate that over 80% of restaurant jobs could potentially be taken over by automation — Food service, cleaning, and delivery workers are particularly vulnerable.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Milkshake: Fatburger's owner, Fat Brands, is acquiring OG diner chain Johnny Rockets for around $25M (and a side of fries).
  • Galactic: Amazon will spend $10B on a constellation of internet-beaming satellites — it just got the federal 'OK' to launch.
  • TokTalk: Facebook and Snap held talks to buy TikTok-rival Dubsmash, which has grown more popular on TikTok ban talk.
  • ZeroStars: A judge rejects Uber and Lyft's request for more time to appeal the decision of classifying CA gig drivers as employees.
  • Oops: Citi pays Revlon lenders nearly $900M by mistake — now it's asking for the money back.

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Friday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Apple and Spotify

ID: 1303263

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Latest Stories

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/23/24

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.