Thursday Aug.27, 2020

🧥 Urban Outfitters' surprise profit smoothie

_The sales force is strong_
_The sales force is strong_

Hey Snackers,

The hot new star of New York Fashion Week: Lowe's. NYFW designers are partnering with the 100-year-old retailer to bring home decor to the runway. Let's hope the potted ferns don't trip in their heels (#faceplant).

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rose to all-time highs again — the indexes have hit fresh records for four straight trading days.

Wear

Urban Outfitters surges on a surprise profit (it's a techy fashion smoothie)

The Urban Anthropologie of Free People... That's a mouthful, but apparently a profitable one. Urban Outfitters is the boho-chic retailer that supplies the distressed denim jacket of your high-school dreams. Urban also owns Free People, where a floral tank costs $60, and Anthropologie, where a candle costs more than your car insurance.

  • Urban lost $138M during the January-April quarter. Sales plunged across all three of its major brands as Urban stores closed for lockdowns. Analysts were expecting another loss during May-July.
  • Surprise! Urban turned a $34M profit. All its brands were profitable and new digital customers jumped 70%. Urban stock popped 21% on the earnings shocker.

Slim fit inventory... Urban's sales were down 17%, but it snagged a profit by keeping its inventory lean. It didn't overspend on clothes/candles/etc, so it didn't lose money when the demand wasn't there. By carefully guarding against overstocking, Urban avoided the discounting death spiral: Once you go 70% off to clear out unsold stuff, you never go back (customers never forget).

Urban is a fashion smoothie with a scoop of techy innovation... Its business is diverse, like a chocolate-banana-kale concoction. In addition to its core clothing biz, Urban sells home decor, food, and skincare products. It also has a clothing rental subscription service called Nuuly. This techy scoop of almond butter makes up just ~1% of Urban's sales — But Nuuly's sales have doubled since last year. It's the kind of innovation you don't see with OG clothing retailers.

Sell

Salesforce surges 26% on a record quarter — meet the new member of Club Dow

Always be closing... The company that powers sales teams around the world just notched killer quarterly sales itself (#meta). Enterprise cloud software-maker Salesforce had a great week. On Monday, we found out Salesforce is joining the Dow (and oily Exxon got booted). The elite-ish index tracks the stocks of 30 of America's largest companies.

  • Salesforce stock ticked up, since fund managers who track the Dow will have to buy Salesforce shares to match the index. Then, on Wednesday...
  • Salesforce stock soared 26% on word that quarterly sales jumped 29% to over $5B for the 1st time. Salesforce added over $60B to its market value in just one day.

WTF is "CRM"... It's Salesforce's stock ticker, and also its bread-and-butter: Customer Relationship Management. CRM apps help salespeople track their interactions with leads and prospects. That way, Tony won't forget to follow up on the Knicks tickets he sent to his hot lead. Cindy can show her manager that she called/emailed/Linkedin'd FP&A Bob 135 times. Reps who take over an account or join a deal cycle can see all the info from past interactions.

It's all about the Total Addressable Market... That's Salesforce's total sales opportunity. If a company a) sells things and/or b) has customers to support, they’re part of Salesforce’s TAM (if they can afford it). Since 2006, Salesforce has acquired dozens of companies to expand its biz and TAM. That broad mix of cloud-based business applications is thriving in the WFH economy.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • ZuckIt: Facebook says that Apple's new iOS update could lead to a massive 50% drop in its revenue from targeted mobile ads.
  • Crewneck: J.Crew gets the greenlight for its debt reorganization plan, setting it up to emerge from bankruptcy with a fresh start next month.
  • Dicky: Dick's Sporting Goods's online sales nearly tripled on your pandemic hiking habit (kayak demand surged).
  • Vax: Biotech firm Moderna says its COVID vaccine shows promising results in a small trial of older patients.
  • Nordy: Nordstrom's sales plunged 53% after falling 40% in the previous quarter — online sales dropped, too.
  • Augment: Apple is reportedly adding AR content to Apple TV+ streaming. Think: dolphins on your iPad while Free Willy is on the TV.

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Thursday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Apple

ID: 1315019

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Latest Stories

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

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Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia
Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

Job switchers and stayers

The FTC is banning non-compete clauses

Why that might make job switching even more lucrative

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.