Thursday Feb.24, 2022

🇺🇦 The impact of Russia sanctions

This new Kanye album is fire [Photodisc via Getty Images]
This new Kanye album is fire [Photodisc via Getty Images]

Hey Snackers,

The conflict in Ukraine has unfortunately escalated: Late yesterday, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a military operation in Ukraine, and the country confirmed that several of its cities were under attack. President Biden said Ukraine is facing an "unprovoked and unjustified attack," and that the world would "hold Russia accountable."

Yesterday, the US sent extra troops to Eastern Europe to bolster security. FYI: 70K US troops are permanently stationed in Europe through NATO, the US-led org founded after WWII to protect its now 30 members. Ukraine isn’t part of it. Meanwhile, the Dow plunged to its lowest level this year.

Sanctioned

Companies brace for impact from Russia sanctions, but consumers could get hit hardest

Refresh for updates... Days after Russia sent troops into Moscow-backed regions of Ukraine, the US has been upping its response by adding to targeted financial sanctions. Yesterday the US slapped sanctions on the company building Russia’s $11B Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline which spans from Russia to Germany after Germany halted its opening.

  • Punishment: Western leaders are using the pipeline as leverage against Russia, since oil exports = 30% of Russia's economy.
  • Risk: Russia supplies more than a third of the EU’s natural gas, and could retaliate by shutting off some of those fuel exports.
  • Next: More sanctions seem likely. Late last night, President Biden said the US and its allies "will be imposing severe sanctions" on Russia, and will continue to provide support to Ukraine.

Companies are nervous... Most Western corporations don't have operations in Russia and Ukraine. But large multinationals that do are bracing for further sanctions, which Western leaders could leverage:

  • Oil: BP, Exxon, and Shell all have significant investments in Russia that could be threatened by sanctions on Russia’s energy market.
  • Banks: Chase and Citi, which do business in Russia, would have to cut ties with local lenders if broad financial sanctions happen. Cross-border payments could be frozen, which might mean lost $$$.
  • Cars: Dodge and Jeep parent Stellantis says it would limit production in Russia if sanctions disrupt its operations.
  • Beer: Danish brewer Carlsberg is Ukraine’s biggest beer seller, while Russia accounts for 10% of its sales. It has breweries in both countries and said it’s working on contingency plans in case sanctions disrupt beer-making.

Sanctions could hit consumers hardest… especially Europeans. Western companies were relatively unaffected by Russia’s 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula. American and EU officials say sanctions will be harsher this time, and consumers could feel that at the pump. As the world’s #2 exporter of natural gas and #3 exporter of oil, Russia can cut supply at a time when prices are already sky high. Americans, who are facing for the highest gas prices since 2013, could experience even more pump anxiety if global supply shrinks.

Ye

Kanye goes direct to consumer with his new album, as artists’ streaming frustration grows

Yeezy taught me… Kanye West isn't afraid to be vocal, whether it’s about his personal life or his moves to take on an "oppressive" music industry. The artist now known by “‘Ye’” live-streamed a “Donda Experience” event on Tuesday to promote his new “Donda 2” album. Ye’s making the record available exclusively on a physical $200 “Stem Player” device (think: a new-age iPod that looks like a smoke detector). Why: Ye wants to bypass streaming platforms like Apple, Amazon, Spotify, and YouTube. Kanye also tried to skip those streamers with his launch event:

  • Ye originally said the event would stream only at IMAX theaters, and later only on the Stem site. But ultimately it streamed free on YouTube and Amazon’s Twitch (awk).
  • The original Donda set a streaming record for Apple Music last year when it got 60M streams on day #1. Kanye says he turned down $100M from Apple for “Donda 2.”

The revolution will be streamed… but it’s less certain where. Many musicians have criticized streaming platforms for their payout structures: artists reportedly earn only about 10% of streaming revenue, so they have to hit 1M streams just to pocket $5K on Spotify, Apple, or Amazon. Several stars have attempted to ditch major platforms in a push to better control their earnings:

  • Beyoncé made her breakthrough 2016 album “Lemonade” exclusive to Tidal, a platform formerly co-owned by her husband, Jay-Z, and his frenemy Kanye. But Tidal never caught on, and last year Square bought it.
  • Taylor Swift has shunned both Apple Music and Spotify at various times, and re-recorded her “Red” album to claim streaming bucks back from labels.

Habit platforms are sticky… It’s one thing to fight streamer payouts, but another to fight listener habits. Taylor, Kanye, and Beyoncé can afford to ditch Spotify or Apple temporarily to fight for better terms. But they’ve all returned to where the ears and playlists are: Spotify and Apple have a combined global market share of more than 50%, but they’re not invincible. Example: Spotify shares fell 6% in the days after Neil Young jumped ship in protest of Joe Rogan’s vax misinfo, and they still haven’t recovered.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Payout: Lawmakers are finalizing a deal that would require pharma companies involved in the opioid epidemic to pay out $32B to victims — significantly less than the $246B Big Tobacco settlement of the ’90s.
  • Reuse: Tired: Milkmen. Wired: BBQ boys. Shoppers at some Kroger-owned Fred Meyer stores can now buy sauce and shampoo in glass bottles and return them, thanks to recycling platform Loop.
  • Network: LinkedIn is launching a podcast network to attract biz-friendly creators. The “networking network” plans to debut original pods, including one hosted by cofounder Reid Hoffman.
  • Hacked: A cyberattack took down some Ukrainian government and bank websites, part of what the White House says is an attempt by Russia to destabilize Ukraine.
  • DIY: Lowe's raised its sales forecast for the year as Americans take on larger home renovations. The big-box retailer is also partnering with Instacart for same-day delivery.

Thursday

  • Weekly jobless claims
  • Earnings expected from: Intuit, Moderna, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Block, Keurig Dr Pepper, Coinbase, Monster Beverage, Planet Fitness, Etsy, and Discovery

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Tesla, Amazon, Spotify, Apple, Block, Google, and Exxon

ID: 2052707

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Latest Stories

$110B

Apple announced a massive $110B boost in share buybacks — the biggest of all time. That’s even higher than the $90 billion analysts expected. For context in the last 12 years Apple spent a total of $650 billion buying back its own stock. The entire S&P 500 did $795 billion last year. That certainly softens the blow from a 4% decrease in revenue.

Ozempic, Wegovy drive Novo Nordisk profits up

Shares of Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk fell on Thursday, as investors digested the latest hard numbers from the maker of heavily-hyped drugs Ozempic and Wegovy.

For the record, sales of both continue to explode, though sales of Wegovy, which more than doubled to kr. 9.8B, came in about 10% below analyst expectations. Ozempic sales, which slowed, actually were better than expectations.

In Danish currency terms, Q1 profit jumped 28% for the company, which is based in suburban Copenhagen. Novo Nordisk’s market value of roughly $570 billion is now larger than the entire Danish economy.

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Short sellers are getting squeezed on Carvana, Wayfair, and Enovix

Shares of Carvana, Wayfair, and Enovix were ripping Thursday morning.

These companies don’t have too much in common from a business operations standpoint — one makes batteries, another needs batteries, and one sells furniture and rugs that really tie the room together.

What they do have in common right now though: traders were betting on their shares to fall, and each released quarterly earnings reports either after the market closed on Wednesday or on Thursday morning that weren’t as bad as feared, in one way or another.

As of mid-April, short interest as a percentage of equity float for these stocks ranged from 26% (Wayfair) to 31% (Enovix), according to exchange data.

Betting against two of these companies had paid off so far this year, with Carvana being the exception. Shares of the used-car retailer were up 78% heading into Thursday’s session versus Wayfair (-14%), and Enovix (-47%). For comparison, the S&P 500 Index is up 5.8 percent year-to-date.

Hat tip to Tom Hearden, senior trader at Skylands Capital, for bringing this to our attention.

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World

Japan's yen is lassoed to the dollar, for better or for worse

What happens in the US economy doesn’t stay there: the Fed’s choice to keep interest rates unchanged could increase pressure pushing down the Japanese yen. On Wednesday, Jerome Powell held interest rates steady at a two-decade high. 

Before sticky interest-rates were announced, the yen on Monday flirted with (but didn’t quite hit) a 160:1 conversion rate with the US dollar. It’s widely thought that Japanese authorities intervened to prop up the yen by buying yen and selling dollars. But the suspected trading spree barely budged the yen’s value, which is the weakest it’s been vs. the dollar since the ’80s. 

¥157 to $1

Japan’s especially sensitive to US interest-rate decisions because its own rates are ultra-low. The problem: investors buy yen at low borrowing rates but quickly convert it to another currency for higher returns. 

Even just the anticipation (more like dread) of rate-cut delays has contributed to the yen’s slide. When it comes to when the Fed expects confidence to rise enough to slash rates, Powell on Wednesday left investors on read with a big “IDK.”

Pinterest has a half-billion monthly active users, notches best day in years

Pinterest shares surged by roughly 20% Wednesday, posting their biggest gain in three years following its release of strong earnings results. It was the biggest single day rise for the stock in over three years, Bloomberg says.

Q1 sales jumped 22.8%, the fastest since 2021. Monthly active users hit a record 518 million. The company still lost money, though it narrowed to its loss to $24 million, from $209 million during the first quarter last year.

Fed keeps rates steady

The Federal Reserve kept its target monetary policy rate unchanged, and noted “a lack of further progress” toward getting inflation down to its 2% target. Stocks and bonds were relatively unchanged on the announcement.

But they rose after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-statement news conference, in which he seemed to discount the chance that the Fed could move to rate hikes soon.

"I think it’s unlikely that the next policy rate move will be a hike,” he said.

5.25%-5.50%
“Unlikely that the next policy rate move will be a hike.”
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Business

Novo Nordisk’s market cap is bigger than Denmark’s entire economy

Something is shapely in the state of Denmark.

Thanks to the success of its diabetes and obesity drugs Ozempic and Wegovy, drugmaker Novo Nordisk is now Europe’s most valuable company. It’s especially having outsized effects on its home country of Denmark, where its market cap of over $570 billion trumps the country’s GDP.

“Without Novo’s contribution, the Danish economy would have stagnated,” Bloomberg reports.

Novo Nordisk therefore is having broad effects on myriad aspects of life in Denmark, from educational priorities to immigration policy to job availability to mortgage rates. As goes Novo Nordisk, so goes the nation. That means if the drugmaker’s finances go south, so will Denmark’s.

“Without Novo’s contribution, the Danish economy would have stagnated,” Bloomberg reports.

Novo Nordisk therefore is having broad effects on myriad aspects of life in Denmark, from educational priorities to immigration policy to job availability to mortgage rates. As goes Novo Nordisk, so goes the nation. That means if the drugmaker’s finances go south, so will Denmark’s.