Hey Snackers,
We found some famous logos redesigned for the corona-conomy — we're glad "Master" and "Card" are practicing appropriate social distancing (and Corona beer still needs a new name).
US markets suffered their worst week since 2008. While workers in China get back to normal life as the rate of recorded infections drops, the US and Europe aren't. Following California's lead, six additional states have imposed stay-at-home orders for 100% of the non-essential workforce. This week the Senate continues to debate a $1T+ stimulus bill.
Accelerate
Social distancing is accelerating business trends — could change industries forever
Online wine shopping for virtual happy hour... In this social distancing economy, things move fast. "Flattening the curve" means staying in and avoiding physical contact with people — never before has social media been flooded with so many "at-home-workout" and baking videos. It's the Coronavirus economy, aka the "corona-conomy".
We noticed something about certain disruptive trends... It looks like they're accelerating in this contact-less economy. There were already reasons to try out disrupting products — this public health crisis has added even more:
- Cord-Cutting: One of the last reasons for many to keep paying ~$100/month for cable was live sports. That's been shut down (as have the late night TV shows). People need stuff to watch more than ever right now, and might decide their sports-less cable package isn't worth it.
- Online Grocery: While egrocery is still in its infancy, more people are trying it out: a survey on March 13th showed that 1/3 of American shoppers had bought groceries online in the prior week (over half for the 1st time).
- Take-Out Only: We predicted the rise of seat-less restaurants (even though we never imagined this reason for it). Starbucks has converted its US and Canadian locations to pickup/delivery-only and Dunkin' went one step further — it's removed tables and chairs to make sure people get the message not to stick around.
- D2C Movies: With theaters closed, Universal Studios is releasing new movies directly online for streaming ($19.99 rentals to start). Historically movies only go online/DVD/Blue-Ray/VHS after a 90-day theater-only period.
We're predicting that these trends could accelerate... in the corona-conomy. We'll start to know for sure in April. That's when most companies release their quarterly earnings reports and we'll get sales figures to analyze. In the long-term — when things get back to normal — we'll see if changes in business and consumer behavior were long-lasting or just temporary adjustments to deal with this life-changing crisis.
Highs
Who's up...
The DIY that keeps on giving... Domino's passed on using outside delivery services (like DoorDash) and spent years beefing up its own app, delivery, and pickup infrastructure. In these social-distancing times, its biz model is tasty. Now the pizza legend is hiring an additional 10K workers to handle increased demand just as restaurants around the US brace for layoffs. Delivery makes up about 55% of Domino's total orders, so it's well-positioned to thrive during these pandemic times.
The less I go, the better... While markets plunged 15% last week, shares of Earth's largest brick-and-mortar retailer hit an all-time high — Walmart's egrocery biz is finally having its moment. Of 1st-time online grocery shoppers in a recent survey, a whopping 58% of those newbies shopped at Walmart. Meanwhile an economic recession could boost appeal for its low prices. And its biggest strength is still its reach — 90% of Americans live within 10 miles of a Walmart.
Lows
...and who's down
Cutting a TP square in half... The most inexplicable product in the coronavirus panic-buying lineup: toilet paper. While US TP sales surged 60% from the same time last year, TP-makers aren't so thrilled. The production lines of Kimberly-Clark (Scott), Procter & Gamble (Charmin), and Georgia Pacific (Angel Soft) were already maxed out, rolling out TP 24/7. But don't be fooled — long-term demand for TP is unchanged by this crisis and hoarders prob won't be restocking for another 4 months — so TP companies might lose sales later on.
What goes up... Musk come down. Remember when Tesla shares rallied in ludicrous mode? The e-car maker's stock has plunged 53% from its mid-February peak, nearly twice as bad as the overall market's 30% drop. After an awkward tiff with CA authorities (Elon said he would "personally be at work" after the lockdown), Tesla will suspend production at its Bay Area factory starting March 24th. Still, Tesla's new China factory now has 91% of workers back — production has even reportedly exceeded pre-virus levels.
What else we’re Snackin’
- Endure: How not to completely get annoyed with the people you're quarantined with (it's possible)
- Binge: Wanna try every major streaming service for free during the coronavirus quarantine? Here's a guide
- Thrive: How to be alone because: "all of humanity's problems stem from man's inability to sit quietly in a room alone” — shoutout to Pascal
- Learn: In a down or turbulent market, planning is the most important part of investing
- Chill: How to avoid "always on" burnout on a remote team (since everyone knows you have nothing to do but work, grocery shop, work, and eat)
This Week
- Monday: The Senate continues debate on the economic relief bill, expected to total over $1T
- Tuesday: Earnings expected from Nike, Carnival and Vir Biotechnology
- Wednesday: Earnings expected from Paychex and Micron Technology
- Thursday: Weekly jobless claims. Earnings expected from Lululemon and GameStop
- Friday: Consumer spending report
Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Lululemon
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