Friday Jun.17, 2022

🏳️‍🌈 Rainbow capitalism

A Pride protest near NYC’s Stonewall Inn (Bryan R. Smith/AFP via Getty Images)
A Pride protest near NYC’s Stonewall Inn (Bryan R. Smith/AFP via Getty Images)

Hey Snackers,

The “fake German heiress” is going non-fungible: Anna Sorokin (aka: Anna Delvey), the subject of Netflix’s “Inventing Anna” scammer series, said from jail that she plans to launch an NFT collection. Very VIP.

Stocks sank as investors worried that aggressive rate hikes from the Fed could tip the US into a recession. The Dow fell below 30K for the first time in over a year, while the Nasdaq plunged 4% to its lowest level since 2020.

Pride

Rainbow capitalism is all the rage this Pride Month, but the workforce of tomorrow expects more activism

So many rainbow logos… This Pride Month, a lot of companies are showing support through cheeky ad campaigns, social posts, and logos (think: Uber’s rainbow cars in its app). On Wednesday, President Biden signed an executive order geared toward protecting the record-breaking 7% of American adults — and 21% of Gen Z adults — who identify as LGBTQ+. But the community’s weathering a harsh climate:

  • State legislators have proposed an unprecedented ~300 anti-LGBTQ+ bills this year — many targeting transgender people and their access to healthcare.
  • Meanwhile: The leaked Supreme Court draft opinion that could overturn Roe v. Wade has raised concerns over the future of same-sex marriage.

Pride for sale... Corporate Pride participation has surged as companies seek to promote inclusive images. But many of the companies sponsoring parade floats also fund lawmakers who support anti-LGBTQ+ legislation. Powerhouses like Amazon, AT&T, and Comcast have collectively donated ~$3M to anti-LGBTQ+ causes in recent years. Meanwhile, companies that’ve spoken out against anti-LGBTQ+ bills have done so inconsistently:

  • Apple quietly lobbies against anti-LGBTQ+ legislation under the leadership of Tim Cook, America’s most prominent publicly gay CEO. It’s the only company that lobbied against an Iowa bill that bars trans girls and women from participating in K-12 and collegiate sports.
  • Disney chose not to take a public stance on Florida’s “Don’t Say Gay” bill until it passed. When employees protested, Disney announced it would donate $5M to LGBTQ+ orgs like the Human Rights Campaign. But the HRC rejected the funds, and Gov. Ron DeSantis revoked Disney’s special tax status.

Rainbow capitalism is a tough sell… and logos aren’t enough. An overwhelming 93% of Americans believe LGBTQ+ people should have equal work opportunities, but nearly half of LGBTQ+ workers have experienced unfair treatment at work — including being fired, not hired, or harassed because of their identity. Now a growing number of workers and consumers expect employers to prevent anti-LGBTQ legislation and provide an equitable workplace.

Smoky

Makeup mainstay Revlon files for bankruptcy protection — and other debt-plagued darlings could follow

Should’ve gone with waterproof mascara… for the Chapter 11 tears. Cosmetics giant Revlon officially filed for bankruptcy protection yesterday. Decades ago, Revlon was the second-largest beauty company and the first to feature a Black model. But when people ditched matte lipstick for masks in 2020, the 90-year-old biz barely avoided bankruptcy. Even though cosmetic sales are nearly back to pre-pandemic levels, things have gotten worse at Revlon:

  • Difficulty level = winged eyeliner: Revlon can’t fill a third of its orders (#supply-probs) and has $3.3B in debt to boot. Sales ticked up last quarter, but it’s still losing $$.
  • Kiss and makeup: Now Revlon expects $575M from lenders to save its brand, which it says is still in demand.

Killed by Kylie… For decades, Revlon has sold most of its makeup in drugstores and malls. But the new generation discovers products on TikTok, not at CVS. Now Revlon is losing customers to glossier names: the “tap to buy” trend has helped online-first brands like Kylie Cosmetics, Glossier, and Rihanna’s Fenty Beauty. Gen Z favorite E.L.F. crushed sales expectations last quarter thanks to social collabs with brands like Dunkin’.

Even fellow legacy brand EstĂŠe Lauder is faring better than Revlon (and is profitable), partly thanks to ecomm investments like viral skincare brand The Ordinary.

You can’t conceal billions in debt… Revlon was the first major brand to file for bankruptcy this year, but likely won’t be the last. Last year, nonfinancial US companies took on a record $1.7T of debt when interest rates were near zero. Now soaring interest will make it pricier for cash-strapped companies like Peloton, Affirm, and Just Eat to pay back IOUs.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Ludicrous: Not even EV owners can escape commuter-flation: Tesla hiked the price for all its US car models by up to $6K to make up for rising materials costs (including: aluminum for those #sleek doors).
  • Bleat: Petco’s new profit puppy may be a sales sheep. The chain’s testing out a rural-store concept for pets and farm animals (feat. goat-washing stations), seeking to tap into the $7B small-town market.
  • Burp: Parents can breathe (slightly) easier now that Enfamil maker Reckitt Benckiser plans to import 66M bottles of baby formula to the US. A shortage has left caregivers scrambling to stock up.
  • Buzz: Disney’s new “Toy Story” movie, “Lightyear,” was banned in several Middle Eastern and Asian countries over a same-sex kiss, but that’s unlikely to dent the Pixar flick’s global box office $$.
  • Unstable: Crypto investors drained $1.6B out of Tether in two days, showing that not even the largest stablecoin is immune to crypto winter’s chill. Not helping: algo stablecoin TerraUSD’s recent fall.

Friday

  • Industrial production index
  • National Apple Strudel Day

Authors of this Snacks own: shares of Tesla, Apple, Disney, Netflix, Comcast, Uber, AT&T, CVS, and Amazon

ID: 2250539

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Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

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Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

$127

The average bitcoin-transaction fee hit an all-time high of $127 on Friday.

The temporary spike came as the halving cut miner rewards and traders forked over huge sums of BTC (skewing the average) to be included in the first post-halving block.

Adding fuel to the fee fire was the launch of Runes, a new protocol that lets developers create memecoins on top of the bitcoin blockchain. The debut was so popular that fees popped as traders fought for limited block space.

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2024-04-22-1-america-importing-less-from-china

The US now buys more goods from Mexico than from China

Chinese imports are down as companies begin to "nearshore" in Mexico

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Multiple bidders want to buy Paramount Global’s sprawling media assets

Junk

How much of the world’s plastic is recycled? Only a fraction

Landfills still account for the majority of plastic disposal

Markets

Stock market gains for 2024 cut by more than half

All of the sudden, the stock market seems to be running out of steam.

There’s no big mystery here. War in the Mideast has pushed up oil prices, which will help keep inflation elevated. And annoyingly high price increases in March have already pushed the June Fed rate cuts the market was banking on farther into the uncertain future.

All that’s added up to higher interest rates and lower stock prices.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/22/24

AI needs so much electricity that tech companies are getting into the energy business

To accommodate tech companies’ pivots to artificial intelligence, tech companies are increasingly investing in ways to power AI’s immense electricity needs.

Most recently, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman invested in Exowatt, a company using solar power to feed data centers, according to the Wall Street Journal.

That’s on the heals of OpenAI partner, Microsoft, working on getting approval for nuclear energy to help power its AI operations. Last year Amazon, which is a major investor in AI company Anthropic, said it invested in more than 100 renewable energy projects, making it the “world’s largest corporate purchaser of renewable energy for the fourth year in a row.”

This can all feel like a bit of spin, as these tech companies move the narrative toward their use of green energy rather than questioning whether they truly need to be consuming so much energy in the first place.

That’s on the heals of OpenAI partner, Microsoft, working on getting approval for nuclear energy to help power its AI operations. Last year Amazon, which is a major investor in AI company Anthropic, said it invested in more than 100 renewable energy projects, making it the “world’s largest corporate purchaser of renewable energy for the fourth year in a row.”

This can all feel like a bit of spin, as these tech companies move the narrative toward their use of green energy rather than questioning whether they truly need to be consuming so much energy in the first place.

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