Thursday Oct.22, 2020

👻 Snap's storied revenge

_Snap getting freaky with the filters_
_Snap getting freaky with the filters_

Hey Snackers,

If you thought your Trader Joe's haul was pumpkin-extreme, think again: a man just won the "Pumpkin Super Bowl" with a 2,350-pound gourd named Tiger King. A lot to digest there.

Stocks ticked down yesterday as stimulus deal talks continued without any concrete progress (as usual). The White House is aiming to have some kind of deal done by tomorrow.

NSFW

Snap hits a record on a wow-worthy quarter (it got its Facebook revenge)

Who didn't get corona-ghosted last quarter... Snap stock soared ~30% to an all-time high after the little ghost reported expectation-smashing earnings. You probably noticed more ads appearing every 5 seconds as you tried to watch “Kylie sizzles on Capri beach” and "Oddly Satisfying."

  • Sales shot up 52% as advertisers started spending again, compared to growth of 17% in the previous quarter.
  • Daily users grew 18% to 249M — that's equivalent to 75% of the US population.
  • Snap's loss shrank 12%, but the 9-year-old company still isn't profitable.

Zucking revenge... Snap's growth slowed big time after Facebook's Instagram copied its game-changing Stories back in 2016. But last quarter, Snap profited off FB's misfortune: earnings were boosted by the FB ad boycott, as marketers shifted spend to Snap. Also: since TikTok was banned in India, Snap more than doubled its users in the world's 2nd most populous country.

  • Snap has done a lot this year, launching new features from Mini apps to TikTok rivaling Sounds to the (in)famous anime filter.
  • There’s a lot you can do on Snap now besides sending double chin pics, from meditating with Headspace to Shazaming songs to identifying plant species.

Snap got lucky... with the FB boycott and the TikTok ban saga. Now the question is: can it keep up the growth and users it gained last quarter? Snap's CFO said that it's not clear whether pumped-up ad demand will stick. But investors ignored that, boosting the stock on the surprising growth.

Flix

Netflix stock slumps on slowing subscriber growth and subscripturation

Just like Emily in Paris... Netflix's quarter didn't go as planned. Netflix added just 2.2M subscribers in its third quarter, less than the 2.5M it forecast and waaay less than the 3.6M analysts expected. Netflix stock dropped 7% because in the markets, everything is relative:

  • Netflix added nearly 16M subscribers in the 1st quarter of this year, and over 10M in Q2, making its latest quarter look even worse.
  • It's forecasting just 6M new subs this quarter, and expects paid subscriber additions to be down for the first half of 2021.

The boom is over... Netflix saw explosive growth during the first half of the year, as we hibernated with our laptops and instant ramen. It became a utility (gas, electric, and Flix) — but that also led to more subscripturation (aka: subscription saturation).

  • Netflix already takes up 72% of US home streaming time. Plus, consumers are now spoilt for choice with newbie streamers like Disney+ (RIP Quibi). That's why...
  • Netflix added only 180K subscribers in the US and Canada. Subscribers in the Asia-Pacific region were the largest growth contributors, making up 46% of all newbie additions.

Netflix needs to get creative to reach non-streamers... It has 200M paying subscribers, but its next 100M will probably be streaming virgins — everyone else is over-subscribed. That's why Netflix is looking to emerging markets like India and Brazil for future growth. It's even offering a free, 48-hour streaming event in India — and it probably won’t even ask for payment info.

Electrify

After 10 years, GM resurrects the gas-guzzling Hummer as an EV monster

Are We There Yet?... Like the 2005 Ice Cube family classic, the mid-2000s were filled with gas-guzzling cars that could fit entire football teams (RIP Lincoln Navigator). Now GM is bringing bulky back by reviving the Hummer, which it discontinued in 2009 when it went bankrupt. But now it's the opposite of a gas-guzzler:

  • The world's first all-electric supertruck: What GM unveiled in a (mildly terrifying) commercial during the World Series on Tuesday.
  • GM's Hummer EV will be an electric pickup beast with 1K horsepower that goes zero to 60 in three seconds. BTW: LeBron is repping.

Smells Musky... GM has made big moves in the EV world, and is now competing against Tesla with the Hummer. It's set to go on sale in a year – likely ahead of Elon’s Cybertruck.

  • $20B: How much GM plans to invest in autonomous and all-electric vehicles through 2025, led by the Hummer pickup.
  • $2B: How much GM just said it's pouring into factories to build its Cadillac EV. It plans to launch 22 new electrified vehicles by 2023.
  • $2B: How much GM was going to hand over to produce cars for e-truck startup Nikola. That's on ice after fraud allegations against the startup.

This is a mainstream milestone for EVs... Everyone's talking about Tesla, but EVs were just 2.6% of global car sales in 2019. GM's sustainable version of its nostalgic, ultra-unsustainable car could lure more non-EV people to the electric side.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • S3XY: Tesla reported expectation-beating earnings in its fifth-straight profitable quarter — it notched a record 139K deliveries.
  • Quiti: Mobile streaming app Quibi, which raised a whopping $1.75B before launching, is shutting down after a lackluster 6-month run.
  • Revv: AutoNation, the US' largest auto dealership, had its “absolute best quarter ever” as we swapped subway rides and Ubers for cars.
  • E-drama: Shares of troubled electric truck startup Nikola jumped after a GM exec ignited hopes of keeping their partnership deal alive.
  • Sad: Disney says CA has set "unworkable" rules for theme park reopenings. The Happiest Place on Earth has to stay closed for now.
  • Pill: OxyContin-maker Purdue Pharma reaches an $8.3B settlement after agreeing to plead guilty to fueling the opioid crisis.

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Thursday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Snap, Tesla, and Disney

ID: 1379683

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Latest Stories

Power

World out of balance: It costs the US 3¢ to make 1 penny

The cost of producing the US penny rose 13% in fiscal 2023 to 3.07 cents. Yes, that means that Uncle Sam loses more than two cents for every cent it produces. (And no, you can’t make it up on volume.)

For the record, that’s the 18th-straight year the penny’s face value has been below production costs, fueling calls for abolishing the lowest value denomination coin. Canada started to phase out the penny in 2013, joining Australia, Brazil, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, and Israel, according to Smithsonian Magazine.

3.07¢
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Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia
Business

Netflix is going to stop sharing subscriber numbers

After posting subscriber numbers that beat expectations today, Netflix says it’s no longer going to share those numbers starting in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a big deal since subscriber numbers have long been one of the main metrics that investors have looked at.

“In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential,” its shareholders letter read. “But now we’re generating very substantial profit and free cash flow.” The company said that it will focus on revenue and operating margin as its main financial metrics, while it will look at time spent on the platform to gauge customer satisfaction.

Another way to read this? They’ve hit market saturation and just aren’t going to be growing that much anymore, and they thought they’d end on a good note. Going forward they’re focusing on how to get more money out of the customers they do have.

They’re doing so by cracking down on password sharing and charging for extra members. They’re also pushing people to ad tiers, which are more profitable than non-ad tiers.

“Scaling ads to become a more meaningful contributor to our business in ‘25 and beyond,” Netflix said.

Netflix’s ads membership grew another 65% in Q1 over the previous one, after rising 70% the quarter before, and 40% of signups in ad markets continue to be for those ad plans.

Tech

Meta’s not telling where it got its AI training data

Today Meta unleashed its ChatGPT competitor, Meta AI, across its apps and as a standalone. The company boasts that it is running on its latest, greatest AI model, Llama 3, which was trained on “data of the highest quality”! A dataset seven times larger than Llama2! And includes 4 times more code!

What is that training data? There the company is less loquacious.

Meta said the 15 trillion tokens on which its trained came from “publicly available sources.” Which sources? Meta told The Verge’s Alex Heath that it didn’t include Meta user data, but didn’t give much more in the way of specifics.

It did mention that it includes AI-generated data, or synthetic data: “we used Llama 2 to generate the training data for the text-quality classifiers that are powering Llama 3.” There are plenty of known issues with synthetic or AI-created data, foremost of which is that it can exacerbate existing issues with AI, because it’s liable to spit out a more concentrated version of any garbage it is ingesting.

AI companies are turning to such data because there’s not enough good, public data on the entire internet to train their increasingly greedy AI models. (Meta had reportedly floated buying a publisher like Simon & Schuster to satisfy its insatiable data needs.)

Meta, of course, isn’t the only company that’s tight-lipped about where its AI data is coming from. In a now infamous interview with WSJ’s Johanna Stern, OpenAI’s chief technology officer Mira Murati was unable to answer questions about what Sora, OpenAI’s video generating app, was trained on. YouTube? Facebook? Instagram — she said she wasn’t sure.

What is that training data? There the company is less loquacious.

Meta said the 15 trillion tokens on which its trained came from “publicly available sources.” Which sources? Meta told The Verge’s Alex Heath that it didn’t include Meta user data, but didn’t give much more in the way of specifics.

It did mention that it includes AI-generated data, or synthetic data: “we used Llama 2 to generate the training data for the text-quality classifiers that are powering Llama 3.” There are plenty of known issues with synthetic or AI-created data, foremost of which is that it can exacerbate existing issues with AI, because it’s liable to spit out a more concentrated version of any garbage it is ingesting.

AI companies are turning to such data because there’s not enough good, public data on the entire internet to train their increasingly greedy AI models. (Meta had reportedly floated buying a publisher like Simon & Schuster to satisfy its insatiable data needs.)

Meta, of course, isn’t the only company that’s tight-lipped about where its AI data is coming from. In a now infamous interview with WSJ’s Johanna Stern, OpenAI’s chief technology officer Mira Murati was unable to answer questions about what Sora, OpenAI’s video generating app, was trained on. YouTube? Facebook? Instagram — she said she wasn’t sure.

Today’s earnings: Who’s making money edition

Here are some some notable numbers out this morning, as earnings season gathers steam. Thursday’s main event will be Netflix after the close of trading. (Keep an eye on its advertising business.) But until then...

7.13%

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage is back above 7%, according to weekly numbers from the Mortgage Bankers Association, the highest level in four months. High borrowing costs are creating havoc for would-be buyers, as affordability lingers at the low levels not seen consistently since the late 1980s.

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Business

Amazon’s spy ops on rivals: shell companies, printed docs, and a fake Japanese streetwear brand

Some companies check out rivals’ websites, stores and public filings to stay abreast of the competition. Amazon made its own fake shell company and brands, transacted hundreds of thousands of dollars per year undercover on competitors’ platforms, and kept its intel operation a secret for nearly a decade even from others at Amazon, according to a fascinating investigation by the Wall Street Journal.

Working as a seller called Big River, a secret group of Amazon employees gained access to rival platforms, including Walmart, FedEx, and Alibaba. They used Big River email addresses and went to seller conferences as Big River employees. They even stayed hidden within Amazon itself. These employees would take screenshots of competitors’ systems that they would then show others at Amazon in person to avoid an email paper trail.

Perhaps most strange of all, the company created a fake Japanese streetwear brand called “Not So Ape” (clearly a play on A Bathing Ape) and continues to sell products from the brand on a Shopify store, presumably as an attempt to learn the inner workings of the shopping platform. Of course, copying is old hat for Amazon.

In meetings where they’d use this clandestine information to inform Amazon’s own business practices, the group resorted to literal paper. “[T]he team avoided distributing presentations electronically to Amazon executives. Instead, they printed the presentations and numbered the documents. Executives could look at the reports and take notes, but at the end of the meeting, team members collected the papers to ensure that they had all copies."

Working as a seller called Big River, a secret group of Amazon employees gained access to rival platforms, including Walmart, FedEx, and Alibaba. They used Big River email addresses and went to seller conferences as Big River employees. They even stayed hidden within Amazon itself. These employees would take screenshots of competitors’ systems that they would then show others at Amazon in person to avoid an email paper trail.

Perhaps most strange of all, the company created a fake Japanese streetwear brand called “Not So Ape” (clearly a play on A Bathing Ape) and continues to sell products from the brand on a Shopify store, presumably as an attempt to learn the inner workings of the shopping platform. Of course, copying is old hat for Amazon.

In meetings where they’d use this clandestine information to inform Amazon’s own business practices, the group resorted to literal paper. “[T]he team avoided distributing presentations electronically to Amazon executives. Instead, they printed the presentations and numbered the documents. Executives could look at the reports and take notes, but at the end of the meeting, team members collected the papers to ensure that they had all copies."

Crypto
Jack Morse
4/17/24

Worldcoin pivots to the blockchain… with a 'humans only' discount

Worldcoin, the “proof of personhood” crypto project launched by OpenAI’s Sam Altman, said it plans to launch its own ethereum layer-2 (L2) blockchain dubbed World Chain. The pitch: a blockchain where it’s both easier and cheaper for people to transact than bots.

Worldcoin has made waves for its iris-scanning metallic orb that promises a future where people can mathematically prove they’re real humans and not AI bots.

But it’s run into trouble: the orbs have been banned across Europe and Africa, and the associated WLD crypto token has plunged 50% over the past month.

For project insiders, who reportedly received a token allocation of 25% of supply, that could equal significant losses. 

Which is what may make World Chain attractive. Crypto exchange Coinbase launched its own L2, Base, last year. Base has since seen rapid user growth — activity that’s generated the exchange millions of dollars in weekly fees

Worldcoin could benefit from similar revenue if its L2 is adopted around the world.

But it’s run into trouble: the orbs have been banned across Europe and Africa, and the associated WLD crypto token has plunged 50% over the past month.

For project insiders, who reportedly received a token allocation of 25% of supply, that could equal significant losses. 

Which is what may make World Chain attractive. Crypto exchange Coinbase launched its own L2, Base, last year. Base has since seen rapid user growth — activity that’s generated the exchange millions of dollars in weekly fees

Worldcoin could benefit from similar revenue if its L2 is adopted around the world.

Business

Smooth sailing? Not for superyachts

Sales of the luxury boats sank 17% last year. Meanwhile, Super-SUPER yachts (over 650 feet long) took the biggest sales dip, falling around 40%. Part of the problem: a pandemic-era backlog has led to a three- to four-year waitlist for new yacht orders. Meanwhile Russian oligarchs — former MVP customers — are largely out of the boat-buying business due to sanctions.

Dr Martens shares have been stomped

American sales of Docs have dropped