Thursday Aug.15, 2019

Markets are predicting an economic recession

_IPO bankers going through mandatory WeWork culture training_
_IPO bankers going through mandatory WeWork culture training_

Hey Snackers,

We're telling you because we love you and we love rigatoni — The lifetime pasta pass for Olive Garden hits today. There are 50 of them, they cost $500, and they entitle your face/belly to unlimited pasta forever.

Cheese could help markets psychologically recover from one of the worst losses of the year. The Dow plummeted over 3%, but not because of stocks – it's a reaction to a signal in the bond market (more below).

IPO'ing

WeWork reveals its IPO paperwork — and things got weird

Let's start on page #3... of WeWork's S-1. That's the required tell-all document a company must file before an IPO, telling potential investors key details on the biz. And that's where things got awkward, talking about "the energy of We" (WeWork's actual holding company name). The 9-year-old, $47B huge-icorn with 604K work-stations worldwide wants to IPO soon and this unveil makes it feel like a sorority sect. Here's the surprising stuff:

  • The history: “Our mission is to elevate the world’s consciousness” — that's how they begin telling it.
  • The mantra: WeWork channeled its inner-yoga and made one for its IPO — "We dedicate this to the energy of we — greater than any of us, but inside each of us." We'll just let that sit.
  • The pledge word: "Community." That term was dropped 150 times.
  • The Co-Founder inequity: There are technically 3 (2 are married to each other), but CEO Adam Neumann will control at least 50% of the voting power. And his shares in the company are worth the most: $4.1B.

__There are 2 key numbers to work into your head...__Investors are curious about the $905M WeWork lost in just the first half of this year, 25% more than the same period last year (but it is on pace to double revenues). But WeWork wants you to focus on the 2 years time it takes individual locations to turn profitable, and WeWork has opened over 100 so far this year.

Forget co-working... WeWork is now "space-as-a-service." WeWork says it pioneered the term — The play on "software-as-a-service" is WeWork's attempt to appear like a tech company so investors will judge it like a tech company and be cool with the huge losses it's making now. It does though reflect all the things We is now doing outside of coworking:

  • WeLive: "Community"-inspired hotel-like full-time living spaces that host 12K "Meetups" daily worldwide.
  • WeGrow: Schools, because WeWork wants to grow kids' "souls" (their words).
  • Ark: A global real estate platform to acquire real estate.
Econ

Bizarre Wall Street alarm goes off, signaling recession coming soon

Dun dun duuuuuun... The ringtone reserved for crisis situations was buzzing on Wall Street for a strange reason: The yield curve inverted. Translation: The interest rate the US government borrows at was higher for a 2-year loan than a 10-year one. Translation^2: The last 7 economic recessions were warned by this unusual solar eclipse-meets-blood-moon situation.

Everyone thinks the global economic party is going to be less fun... Which increases the chance that'll be the case. Central banks are lowering their country's interest rates on concerns that their economy could slow down. Here's why that's bad for markets:

  • Germany and China are already sick: Those two heavyweights announced serious economic declines this week.
  • If everyone thinks rates will keep falling, then they will: Expectations are important in finance. When the US Central Bank (aka "The Fed") announced the first interest rate cut in 10 years last month, it made the trend official.
  • Banks are bumming: Citigroup fell 5% Wednesday. One of banks' core businesses is taking in money through your checking account and lending it out on the other side. Higher interest rates make that more profitable.

A lot's changed since December... Back then, the Fed was planning to increase interest rates in 2019 at least twice because the economy was doing so well. Since, the US vs. China trade war has spooked everyone.

  • December 2018: 10-year lending rates were benchmarked by the US government's 2.911% borrowing rate.
  • Today: That's down to 1.581%.
  • PS: That's a huge difference, and today's rate is almost an all-time low.
Sip

The Starbucks of China plummets because it's actually a tech company

But first, coffee (earnings)... The "Starbucks of China" is already on track to pass Starbucks as the top espresso chain in tea-thirsty China this year. But just 3 months after its IPO in the US, Luckin Coffee shares dropped 17% after its first-ever earnings report. Before we get into why, get to know Luckin and its Bambi-ish logo:

  • Gen Z lattés: Luckin was born mobile-first — In its three years of existence, its focus is small stores where you order ahead or order delivery with the app.
  • Growth mode: Fast. Sales jumped 648% last quarter as it opened 593 new spots in just the last three months to hit 2,963 total (vs. Starbucks' 3,922 in China).
  • It's a homebody: Luckin hasn't applied for a passport yet (but did just sign a deal for Middle East expansion). Its market value is 1/20th of globally-minded Starbucks.

How does Luckin take its coffee?... With other things now. The biggest update in Luckin's earnings was its moves outside the bean. It's now letting customers order food via app and it's dabbling in vending machines to save on real estate costs. Plus, to poetically "capture different consumption moments," it's now doing Luckin Tea.

Is Luckin' a tech company or a coffee company?... Yes. Both. But investors think it's behaving too Silicon Valley, so they dropped the stock. Luckin has aggressively cut prices of a cup of coffee to compete with Starbucks, which could be unsustainable. But that's kinda a tech move — no different than Uber or Lyft dishing out discount codes for rides to get you on their apps.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Sweet: The Museum of Ice Cream (actually, the new company behind it) gets valued at $200M for an obsession with "experiences"
  • Playing: Alibaba's co-founder is spending his Chinese ecommerce bucks to buy the Brooklyn Nets, valuing the basketball team at a record $2.4B
  • Retail-pocalypse: Macy's drops basically because it put too many clothes on sale over the spring
  • Concocted: Coca-Cola is whipping up Cinnamon Coke in the US just in time for the holidays
  • Situations: Overstock shares drop 22% after the CEO chats more about his involvement in the 2016 election investigation with Russian interference
  • Goodwill: Amazon starts program to donate unsold products to charity, instead of destroying them

Thursday

  • Earnings from Walmart and Alibaba
  • 50th anniversary of Woodstock music festival

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Alibaba, Amazon, and Luckin Coffee.

20190814-928760-2798801

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Do you want to run the State Department of McDonald’s?

A couple of days ago, a tweet making fun at McDonald’s hiring a “Manager for Diplomatic Relations” went viral.

At first glance, the idea that McDonald’s, a burger franchise known for its double quarter pounders and perfectly salted fries, is expanding its diplomatic influence with policy makers in Foggy Bottom and the world at large sounds comical. But it’s actually crucial.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

Nuke stocks up on AI excitement

For most of humanity, the thought of “nuclear-powered AI” sends a shiver down the spine. But the stock market is all for it! Just check out the list of top performing S&P 500 stocks this year. Just behind established AI plays — Super Micro Computer and Nvidia, you’ll find Constellation Energy, the largest operator of nuclear plants in the U.S. NRG Energy, which also operates nuclear plants, isn’t far behind. Bloomberg reports that CEO of power distributor Exelon — which spun off Constellation in 2022 — says in the Chicago area alone, AI could drive a 900% jump in demand for energy from data centers.

Tech

China makes Apple remove WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram from app store

In its latest move to restrict foreign tech, Beijing has ordered Apple to remove a number of popular messaging apps from its app store there, including WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram.

These apps had only been available through VPNs but were popular nonetheless, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Business

Tesla's recall reveals just how bad Cybertruck delivery numbers have been

Thanks to a recall of Tesla’s Cybertrucks, we now know how many of them have actually been delivered: 3,878 since the EV company began releasing them to customers in November.

In its third and fourth quarter earnings report, Tesla said that its current Cybertruck production capacity was greater than 125,000 a year. Musk had previously said he expected to produce 250,000 Cybertrucks a year by 2025.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

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Markets

Cocoa hits $11,000

Cocoa prices are breaking records on an almost daily basis — with cocoa futures closing at (another) all-time high of $11,020 per metric ton yesterday.

That’s up 158% since the start of the year, and over 4x on the typical prices seen in 2022 — as crop production continues to fall short of demand.

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices
Power

World out of balance: It costs the US 3¢ to make 1 penny

The cost of producing a US penny rose 13% in fiscal 2023 to 3.07 cents. Yes, it means that Uncle Sam loses more than 2 cents for every cent it produces. (And no, you can’t make it up on volume.)

For the record, that’s the 18th straight year the penny’s face value has been below production costs, fueling calls for abolishing the lowest value denomination coin. Canada started to phase out the penny in 2013, joining Australia, Brazil, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, and Israel, according to Smithsonian Magazine.

3.07¢
Business
Rani Molla
4/18/24

Netflix is going to stop sharing subscriber numbers

After posting subscriber numbers that beat expectations today, Netflix says it’s no longer going to share those numbers starting in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a big deal since subscriber numbers have long been one of the main metrics that investors have looked at.

“In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential,” its shareholders letter read. “But now we’re generating very substantial profit and free cash flow.” The company said that it will focus on revenue and operating margin as its main financial metrics, while it will look at time spent on the platform to gauge customer satisfaction.

Another way to read this? They’ve hit market saturation and just aren’t going to be growing that much anymore, and they thought they’d end on a good note. Going forward they’re focusing on how to get more money out of the customers they do have.

They’re doing so by cracking down on password sharing and charging for extra members. They’re also pushing people to ad tiers, which are more profitable than non-ad tiers.

“Scaling ads to become a more meaningful contributor to our business in ‘25 and beyond,” Netflix said.

Netflix’s ads membership grew another 65% in Q1 over the previous one, after rising 70% the quarter before, and 40% of signups in ad markets continue to be for those ad plans.