Monday Nov.09, 2020

🏨 Marriott's shocking pandemic profit

_When you find out there's no more mini shampoo to steal_
_When you find out there's no more mini shampoo to steal_

Hey Snackers,

The US woke up Saturday with a new president-elect, only four days after Election Day. It was the highest voter turnout in 120 years — Nevada's just glad the memes are over.

Stocks soared big over the work week. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index gained 9% since a divided Congress makes Big Tech reform unlikely.

On the pod: Because Amazon hasn't done enough, it just launched "Explore" for virtual experiences. We're getting hardcore "Airbnb Experiences" vibes.

Shampoo

Marriott turns a surprise profit despite near-empty hotels (it's a budgeting pro)

Refilling the minibar Fiji bottles... with sink water. Marriott miraculously turned a profit last quarter by being extra thrifty. It's the world’s largest hotel operator with over 7K properties across 130+ countries — usually something to brag about, not so much during a world-halting pandemic. Room occupancy went the way of the "wake up call" (near-extinct):

  • Just over a third of rooms in North America were booked. European Marriotts were even emptier, at just 1 in 5. BTW: Marriott also owns The Ritz, W, and Sheraton.
  • RevPAR: A metric hotel people are obsessed with. It's the average daily room price multiplied by occupancy rate. Marriot's fell nearly 70% from last year. And yet somehow...
  • Marriott checked in a $100M profit from July to September, compared to a $230M loss in the previous quarter.

Continental Breakfast = 1 Eggo waffle... Hilton and Hyatt had similar RevPAR plunges as Marriott, but they posted losses. How? Travel demand improved a bit from the previous quarter (especially in China), but it's really about cost-slashing...

  • Marriott cut costs by 57% — that's almost exactly the same percentage that total sales fell from last year. Marriot made 57% less, but spent 57.2% less. That 0.2% extra = profit.

Budgeting is a skill... that can be used to make the best of worst-case scenarios. Marriott has fixed costs like rent and insurance (just like us) — but it showed budgeting prowess by precisely cutting everywhere it could to turn a profit. Sadly, that included tens of thousands of furloughs in March and corporate layoffs in October.

Highs

Who's up...

Saved by the ballot... Gig driving companies scored big after California voters passed Prop 22, exempting them from CA's AB5 law. Uber and Lyft stock soared more than 30% for the week, since they won't have to reclassify drivers as employees (think: healthcare, PTO). Also exempted: DoorDash, Postmates, and Instacart. AB5 would've made hiring drivers more expensive, making these chronically unprofitable apps lose even more money.

Drunk ordered a couch... from the couch. Millennial furniture favorite Wayfair just proved that the pandemic "House Hype" is still strong. Quarterly sales shot up 67%, and Wayfair even made a comfy profit (after losing ~$300M during the same three months last year). It's using techy data to find out what's most popular, then crank out 10,000 versions of it. The stock popped 21% for the week, and has more than 3X'd this year.

Lows

...and who's down

Missing the movie magic... AMC is desperate for a happy ending. The world’s largest movie theater chain lost nearly $1B last quarter. Sales plunged 91% from last year as theaters were shut for most of the quarter. Now 80% of its US theaters are open, but limited capacity and blockbuster delays are choking sales. The cash-starved chain is looking to raise up to $50M by selling 20M shares to stave off bankruptcy. Happy ending = survival.

Surprise squashing... Chinese fintech giant Ant Group was supposed to go public last week in the world's biggest IPO. Its mega-app Alipay has over 1B users and offers every money-related service imaginable. Problem? Ant's founder Jack Ma made a (poorly-timed) speech criticizing China for stifling innovation. Chinese regulators squashed the historic IPO just two days before it was scheduled. Ma's other company Alibaba — aka: the "Amazon of China" — owns 33% of Ant, so the stock dropped on the news.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Sweat: What a brief jog can do for your brain — just 15 minutes can make a big difference in your mood.
  • Reset: 3 ways to carve out "me time" when work never ends. Conscious breaks are more satisfying than reactive breaks.
  • Act: Four anti-racist choices corporate America can make right now.
  • Work: 9 side hustles to keep your wallet a little warmer this winter.
  • Think: How to worry mindfully — free yourself from mental multitasking and schedule "worry appointments."
  • Watch: 20 travel movies that will transport you across the world, courtesy of Couch Airlines.

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This Week

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Uber, Disney, and Apple

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Do you want to run the State Department of McDonald’s?

A couple of days ago, a tweet making fun at McDonald’s hiring a “Manager for Diplomatic Relations” went viral.

At first glance, the idea that McDonald’s, a burger franchise known for its double quarter pounders and perfectly salted fries, is expanding its diplomatic influence with policy makers in Foggy Bottom and the world at large sounds comical. But it’s actually crucial.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

Nuke stocks up on AI excitement

For most of humanity, the thought of “nuclear-powered AI” sends a shiver down the spine. But the stock market is all for it! Just check out the list of top performing S&P 500 stocks this year. Just behind established AI plays — Super Micro Computer and Nvidia, you’ll find Constellation Energy, the largest operator of nuclear plants in the U.S. NRG Energy, which also operates nuclear plants, isn’t far behind. Bloomberg reports that CEO of power distributor Exelon — which spun off Constellation in 2022 — says in the Chicago area alone, AI could drive a 900% jump in demand for energy from data centers.

Tech

China makes Apple remove WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram from app store

In its latest move to restrict foreign tech, Beijing has ordered Apple to remove a number of popular messaging apps from its app store there, including WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram.

These apps had only been available through VPNs but were popular nonetheless, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Business

Tesla's recall reveals just how bad Cybertruck delivery numbers have been

Thanks to a recall of Tesla’s Cybertrucks, we now know how many of them have actually been delivered: 3,878 since the EV company began releasing them to customers in November.

In its third and fourth quarter earnings report, Tesla said that its current Cybertruck production capacity was greater than 125,000 a year. Musk had previously said he expected to produce 250,000 Cybertrucks a year by 2025.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

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Markets

Cocoa hits $11,000

Cocoa prices are breaking records on an almost daily basis — with cocoa futures closing at (another) all-time high of $11,020 per metric ton yesterday.

That’s up 158% since the start of the year, and over 4x on the typical prices seen in 2022 — as crop production continues to fall short of demand.

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices
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World out of balance: It costs the US 3¢ to make 1 penny

The cost of producing a US penny rose 13% in fiscal 2023 to 3.07 cents. Yes, it means that Uncle Sam loses more than 2 cents for every cent it produces. (And no, you can’t make it up on volume.)

For the record, that’s the 18th straight year the penny’s face value has been below production costs, fueling calls for abolishing the lowest value denomination coin. Canada started to phase out the penny in 2013, joining Australia, Brazil, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, and Israel, according to Smithsonian Magazine.

3.07¢
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Netflix is going to stop sharing subscriber numbers

After posting subscriber numbers that beat expectations today, Netflix says it’s no longer going to share those numbers starting in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a big deal since subscriber numbers have long been one of the main metrics that investors have looked at.

“In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential,” its shareholders letter read. “But now we’re generating very substantial profit and free cash flow.” The company said that it will focus on revenue and operating margin as its main financial metrics, while it will look at time spent on the platform to gauge customer satisfaction.

Another way to read this? They’ve hit market saturation and just aren’t going to be growing that much anymore, and they thought they’d end on a good note. Going forward they’re focusing on how to get more money out of the customers they do have.

They’re doing so by cracking down on password sharing and charging for extra members. They’re also pushing people to ad tiers, which are more profitable than non-ad tiers.

“Scaling ads to become a more meaningful contributor to our business in ‘25 and beyond,” Netflix said.

Netflix’s ads membership grew another 65% in Q1 over the previous one, after rising 70% the quarter before, and 40% of signups in ad markets continue to be for those ad plans.